Some notes from Northland Capital14 Dec 2012 10:44
We still need a good RNS though, especially from Ireland:
VALUATION
Valuation remains very subjective at this stage. Yet there has clearly been progress since our last attempt that is not reflected in those thoughts.
Our Base Case ‘dooms day’ scenario that merely incorporates cash, looks increasingly unlikely so we move our focus to the mid and higher case values.
In our revised valuation we have anticipated a farm out in return for free carry on seismic plus one well in each quad (Quad 35 for Mid Case/both for Upside Case) with 15% retained interests. This may prove conservative as management is targeting at least a 20% retained interest on a two well programme for both. The resulting difference would nearly double the notional value in the event of successful farm out.
Mid Case = Base Case + farm out of Porcupine Basin (£9.3m): £12.1m/15.8p/sh. This assumes retaining 15% of a seismic and drilling campaign on Quad 35 worth $100m (increased from $60m given the depth and potential size of targets).
Upside Case = Mid Case plus farm out of Ghana (£2.3m): £10.9m/31.1p/sh. This also assumes retaining 15% of a seismic and drilling campaign on Quad 45 worth $100m and retaining 15% of a seismic and drilling campaign worth $30 ($18.75m).
We still include no potential for Iraq.