Member Info for APK1

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1612425502983176194?s=46&t=1MWbxXq4GSD4miE4c0ITXg
What would the oil price be if not for the SPR releases in 2022, and does not look like they can maintain that level moving into 2023.

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1612428357471289345?s=46&t=1MWbxXq4GSD4miE4c0ITXg
India demand increases, 2023 is setting up for a strong run in Oil

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2229151/business-economy
With China opening up, SPR releases potentially at a critical level at which congress feels needs to slowdown or stop, the oil price is likely strengthen.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ukraine-war-is-pushing-turkey-closer-to-russia-11671720774
Interesting dynamic playing out Turkey getting closer to Russia and it’s pipeline from Kurdistan may attract Chinese oil companies interest. Not sure how the US would view this.

Global security is provided by the US the geopolitical landscape is changing you now have a significant divide forming between different ideological societies the west needs hydrocarbons, they invested billions into alternative energy sources but now realise without hydrocarbons they have no energy security , that’s the pressure that will be applied to the political differences between Kurdistan and Baghdad by the US get a political agreement in place, IOC’s move in , developed the oil industry Europe less dependent on Russia and the US provides security.

https://www.energyintel.com/00000185-304a-d582-a9ef-7edf039d0000
The European energy supply chain is being redrawn rapidly the need to establish new energy supply hubs will be of paramount importance this need will provide the opportunity’s that motivates IOC’s to develop strategic energy infrastructure partnerships Kurdistan must be in full focus.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/100-oil-will-return-in-2023
This link opens

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1605567891801112576?s=46&t=WCxCtZvYUDRg6sbnktMO2Q
Great link to the fundamental backstory behind the negative noise GKP is sitting on a strategic oil field in a strategic location ,debt free, positive cash carry and flow therefore it’s unsurprising the free float is tightening and the MM are keeping a lid on the market price , price compression in a tight range is like a spring coiling once released the momentum out of the rang will be powerful.

The financial oil market has been manipulated all year with historical SPR releases and effectively a purchasing cartel forming to fix the Russian oil price cap add to this the market trying to price in a recession and repeated Chinese Covid restrictions, it’s not surprising short term price volatility will dominate the price action, however this does not price in the reality long term storage facility’s are at low levels, China will have to reopen for business as the internal economy is under pressure not to mention the riots, Russia still to make a statement on how they intend to respond to the price cap which you can not discount a move to cut supply, als a move to generate electricity burning oil as an alternative to Gas is in the pipeline. The market has been locking in profits from a very strong year due energy stocks and commodities to book the year end bonuses for the fund managers they start from zero again in January would not be surprising to see a move back into the sector and talk of tightening supply moving forward with another year of dividends to come

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/29112022

Seems to be heightened local and international political interaction recently in the region behind all of the photo opportunities and handshakes I am sure energy is the main topic.

https://twitter.com/streetsignscnbc/status/1594899454834126849?s=46&t=wUEB-DXM1XJTIuvzKopB7A

Yesterdays headlines possibly motivated by short positions needing help to cover positions sell the rumours, buying the news, can not see the potential price cap ending well, will likely lead to production cuts tightening supply and exhaustion of the SPR releases.

https://twitter.com/rudawenglish/status/1591356957189111809?s=46&t=Eeea9jsngm2EMlTIyp08PQ

The share price looks like is getting worked held in a range is it a prelude to a larger new event

https://twitter.com/jeremymccreacfa/status/1590015703528411137?s=46&t=gPY8NCg_zInF7i8iBeu0Ig

Funds are not always the first movers index weighing will move funds to the hydrocarbon sector they have been off side for far to long the capital appreciation will follow in the equity prices, GKP is prime for a upside re rate.

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1585346526632894466?s=46&t=SGyoYyNnPfNFPMOS9KdTRA

The reality will sink in the SPR is getting drained it’s a store not a supply with limited shelve life funds are on the wrong side, debt free and free cash flow will become king as the world deleverage’s

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-exxon-exits-russia-empty-handed-with-oil-project-unilaterally-2022-10-17/
The geopolitical shift has left oil majors with holes not only in the balance sheet but most importantly in future production projections, large underdeveloped producing fields with established routes to the European market are few and far between GKP is sitting on a massively underdeveloped field with a production sharing contract in need of an aggressive FDP moving forward.

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1578392496584916994?s=46&t=9drUX8c2hWFPvKMFUdLGIw

Many moving parts to the oil market and the wind is in the direction of strong oil prices moving forward the organic market is tight the OPEC production cut partly motivated by OPEC’s members struggling to hit the quota month on month, also a message price cap fixing will not be tolerated, it’s time for large funds in take position in the oil sector they are still under weight.

Initial cash flow is not important to IOC’s they invest long term in strategic oil and gas energy infrastructure, they also often control take off agreements having in-house oil and gas trading desks.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-kurdish-leaders-discuss-energy-exports-replace-russian-oil-gas-2022-04-19/

The Kurdistan government realised the window of opportunity is open just need the weight of the IOC’s to follow I am sure the US will be thinking the same that’s the likely motivation behind the recent attacks from Iran they know once Kurdistan gets the super majors on board it’s game over for the political gamesmanship.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-looking-long-term-energy-contracts-with-other-countries-pm-truss-2022-10-04/

This will be the start of the rush to achieve energy security and the European need for energy security is paramount to support the industry and society IOC’s will be very aware the landscape has changed didn’t the Uk take Kurdistan oil recently.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-draining-spr-campaign-credit-card-midterms

The potential rebound in the oil market is coming to be massive.