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Let’s get this into perspective, this is a short term temporary hiatus, production will resume in the very near future it’s essential for the financial future and national stability not to mention the geopolitical ramifications to do so for all parties involved.Exxon just flushed 3 billion plus down the tube on a non productive drilling campaign in Brazil, GKP have infrastructure and a temporary suspended producing field under legal contract that’s worth multiples of today’s share price. Many twists and turns to this journey but the destination is likely to be rewarding.

Not long to wait, the political pressure in the background will be significant, a hole in the European energy supply chain will be starting to bit.
Once the oil stars to flow this will be hugely significant as a working mechanism moving forward.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2443136-technicalities-delay-restart-of-iraq-kirkuk-oil-exports

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2443136-technicalities-delay-restart-of-iraq-kirkuk-oil-exports

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2437999-turkey-awaits-iraq-guarantees-to-restart-crude-exports
This will be positive and the final hurdle to be removed, it’s in no one’s interest to have further interruption in the future, get this issue resolved and it’s truly a game changer opening the door to investment from oil majors and institutions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-quits-drilling-in-brazil-after-failing-to-find-oil-3d43c8dc
I can think of an oil rich region, with small oil producers sitting on underdeveloped fields, with a route to market with positive political momentum, I am sure the IOC’s can come up with the same conclusion.

Saudi Arabia propose to cut oil production by five hundred thousand barrels per day from May, even more pressure in the background to get the oil flowing threw Turkey as soon as possible

https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/progress-in-baghdad-erbil-talks-over-northern-export-restart-45623/
This is a good start to what could evolve into a final oil and gas law if all parties play ball this is significant, and opens the door to the larger scale field investment, the IOC’s will be watching.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/01042023

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/01042023
This is much bigger than internal politics, it’s the future of the European energy security.

The oil price has been negatively effected by macro and equity funds long hedging unwinding, with the end of the option period, and a move to non volatile positions until the dust settles with the fall out from the banking sector. Also the uncertainty over CS.
Remember after 2008 the oil sector entered a bullish phase, the tight supply problems in the energy sector are real , the financial market will rebalance eventually and re position, companies that are debt free , free cash flow positive and paying dividends with a low entry price are few and far between will not be down for long.

Many components to transformational deals slowly coming together. The financial market in oil prices does not reflect the true organic demand pressure what we saw last week was a negative gamma effect long oil option expiries occurring at a time when liquidity was under pressure in the market due to the negative news in the banking sector, once that dust settles long hedges will return to the market.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/you-dont-solve-issues-running-away-says-iraqs-krg-pm
Who ever takes the next step are going to dominate the Kurdistan energy sector US or China.

Europe is at the epicentre of geopolitical change, the shockwaves are being felt globally, a big component of that shockwave is energy, the rapid political momentum in Iraq and Kurdistan is opportunity driven if they maintain the momentum and get the agreements in place, it’s a clear sign that they have chosen to side with the west. This will open the flood gates of international investment and IOC’s developing the energy infrastructure completely changing the investment perception of company’s like GKP, this is what we have been waiting for good luck to all stock holders.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/26022023
Political progress will open the door for international investment.

https://www.energyintel.com/00000186-6eff-dbd8-aba7-eeff1d820000
The global energy supply dynamics are under seismic changes it’s by all logical probability only a matter of time before Kurdistans fields are targeted by IOC’s.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/180220231
Iraq , Kurdistan and most importantly the IOC’s know this is a massive window of opportunity, that’s why a deal will be done.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bad-weather-delays-oil-loadings-turkeys-ceyhan-iraq-pipeline-still-stopped-2023-02-07/

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/150120232

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/14012023
The window of opportunity is open for the region to become a significant energy partner to Europe, the IOC’s will be fully aware of this opportunity. This is the motivation to get a political settlement in place, we are at a turning point GKP is a prime target.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-can-become-an-energy-hub-but-not-by-going-all-in-on-russian-gas/

Kurdistan is geographically strategically located to be part of the new energy supply lines which are being redrawn, GKP is sat on a field which has the potential to be a significant part of the supply network. This investment was never going to be straight forward or without its twists and turns , however few oil producers are sat on a substantial oil resource base yet to be fully exploited, with a debt free balance sheet, cash on deposits and in a market place with product which has a organic supply dynamic getting tighter. It’s not In Kurdistans interest negatively effect the investment case into its infrastructure by international companies so the payments will resume and any negotiations are likely to have a positive outcome.