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Morning Starchild,

If it's number 3, doesn't CEG only have today and tomorrow to sign that agreement with Arena?

If that lapses and CEG can't find another funder then doesn't that put the Saffron development at risk due to no funding?

Not convinced "we'll know for sure next week".

We won't be hearing from CEG for the rest of this week following their one RNS a week pattern (apart from that welcoming BOD bonus drop last Friday evening).

Next week we will be given an RNS but I think it's just a general FYI we are still in the production testing stage - everything is going as planned and we will keep you posted.

Meaning it will likely be around second / third week of August that we will get anything meaningful on S2.

Another piece of news shortly after that which will likely jolt the SP one way or another is the annual report which they have delayed to 30 September 2021 because of Covid - will be interesting to analyse CEG's financials.

"Currently drilling materials and fluids are being recovered from the well, which is expected to continue for several days."

I hope that's not code for we're facing some issues and hopefully will get it fixed over the next couple of days.

CEG's future is reliant on S2 results - feels like going all in on a poker game, the only result being is it a royal flush or a bluff?

Just another spanner to throw into the works.

Just because the share options mention share prices that are 2 - 3 times what they are now, does not mean the SP will reach those levels.

It costs CEG little to nothing to arrange share option schemes so what they set as targets should not be what you assume the SP to be in the future.

It could very well reach those levels if everything goes right but it will be wrong to say they will definitely reach those levels and I know potential investors / people looking to invest more may see this as a quick profit but remember this is oil drilling - a high risk business.

They have a lot more to gain from this than you have to lose. To them all they have to say is "oh well we're not going to meet those targets, lets move them down next time and release another RNS". On the other hand you went all in with everything you have and come out with nothing.

If people read my previous post I mentioned I was still in and was looking to invest more because I genuinely believe in the Saffron field potential but after this RNS I will probably need to reconsider.

The company isn't even standing on it's own two feet yet and the BOD is already talking about "incentivising" key personnel so that they continue to do their job with the method of incentivising being directly linked to growing shareholder wealth. Ironically their incentive directly extracts shareholder wealth.

Come on BOD, there is a time and place for this short of thing. I'm not saying you guys are not worthy of being well remunerated but it certainly isn't now when a majority of your shareholders are clinging to 90% + losses.

Feels like a punch to the stomach.

Thanks Ed,

Fingers crossed it's more of a box ticking exercise out there in T&T.

Last thing CEG and shareholders need is another fight on their hands.

I'm no expert in the drilling and production process but I do know in a previous CEG presentation that CEG have 100% ownership of the Saffron fields.

We do know they have been granted permission to drill by various regulatory bodies (since S1 and now S2 has been drilled).

The next step that could potential be a hoop to jump through going by SC's post earlier is:

https://www.ukogplc.com/page.php?pID=100

Q. What happens if tests are positive and a company wants to start full-scale production?
A. The oil and gas company will have to go through another set of approvals for the well or field to enter production. Detailed development plans have to be submitted to all the regulatory bodies that govern UK onshore activities. Again, the local community will be closely consulted throughout this planning process.

Going purely by the Q&A above (again I'm no expert and this is based on UK soil) they will need another set of approvals to move this forward.

Anyone with knowledge in the field able to add more to this?

What's your share price prediction for the end of next week ZagEgypt?

CEG isn't a revenue generating company currently and by default why would anyone invest in this company when it's share price is tanking day after day and drains money faster than your bath tub at home?

I ask myself this and the conclusion I came to is because their business model is exactly that, they need money to drill a well and if its successful the oil will cover the expenditure plus some. This is a very high risk play and something investors need to understand before investing.

However the reasons why I think in the short term (within 1-2 year) CEG will become a revenue generating company with a jump in SP are:

1. S1 and S2 gave us some insight into what to expect in terms of drill outcomes. Both S1 and S2 was a success purely in terms of drilling (no one knows about the actual oil results yet, though CEG mentioned they estimate 200 - 300 BOPD per well but until the results are out I'm not assuming anything).

Meaning they have the knowledge and technology to drill 4000 + ft and cement the whole thing for testing. They can repeat this process 28 more times to create the 30 wells they had in mind. This reduces the risk of drill accidents significantly which costs companies a lot of money.

2. Arena investors were willing to loan circa $17.5m to CEG purely to drill the Saffron field. This has not been published but I believe Arena investors must has carried out some sort of DD before they were willing to loan this amount. Just think about it, the amount of paperwork one has to go through to even get a mortgage, multiply that 100 fold.

3. The conditions within the contract will mean CEG must focus on the Saffron fields to receive the second tranche of money, a very sensible and safe move by Arena given the situation CEG is in and for investors this gives some comfort that management won't go rogue with the money.

Arena's loan which ultimately dictates CEG's next moves , speculated BOPD per well (hoping for RNS next week), the potential to drill 30 wells with the equipment and knowledge already on how to drill the wells essentially makes CEG quite an attractive buy at it's current SP.

Right now the BOD essentially has to answer to Arena for every move they make, they don't have a choice. This to me actually reduces the BOD incompetence risk.

All of the above is why I am still in and looking to invest more into the company - I am riding off the back of our new major fellow shareholder "Arena Investors". The amount of due diligence they must have done on CEG to actually decide to loan them this large sum of money will be many times more accurate than what investors can determine by purely reading public domain information and yes that includes my post you are reading now.

Do your own research everyone.

Have a great day.

There are definitely areas that CEG can do better - communication, financial decisions etc but at the same time luck just wasn't on their side with the P1 drill that tanked the share price by 70% in 1 day - the result of that drill was completely out of their control.

CEG is at a position right now that completely relies on Saffron drills (ex-cerp assets). They got thrown a lifeline via a convertible loan note albeit with rubbish terms but beggars can't be choosers.

I'm a realist, I genuinely think the Bahamas license will get pushed aside at least for the short term (1-2 years). There has been no news on this and CEG doesn't have the money to explore the Bahamas. Even on Eytan's podcast recently on Vox Markets - he mentioned the Bahamas project is basically on the backburner now and only forms a small part of the company portfolio.

Meaning talk about farm ins etc that will push the SP back to pre P1 levels just isn't realistic for me and from the look of things Eytan isn't banking on this either.

The one mistake CEG made was running before they can walk (drilling P1 before developing ex-cerp assets) but hindsight is a beautiful thing.

We are in the process of waiting for S2 drill results (RNS probably next week) and this will decide whether the company will survive and prosper hopefully allowing them to go on to drilling S3,S4,S5 etc as mentioned in the CLN to actually generate income.

From a growing the company organically point of view, I completely agree with the approach CEG is taking right now. Play it safe - drill Saffron wells one at a time. Fingers crossed they deliver (again this is out of their control) and once the wells become self sustaining and the company is not relying on external funding to survive, only then think about bigger projects.

This will push up the SP but definitely not back to pre P1 levels - my guess is that the SP will slowly go on a upward trend assuming the Saffron drills goes as planned (this is a very real risk and reward type scenario so please assess your own risk appetite) and once a few more wells get drilled and CEG are financially independent (confirmed by a set of financial statements) the SP will go jump.

On that note, do your own research - I'm still in with the intention of buying more at this price, I think there is a lot more upward potential compared to downside risk if you can just ride the waves for a few months.

I do believe the SP will increase due to organic reasons but not about the gambling life of hoping for a 10 bagger because of farm ins etc - be realistic but at the same time no risk no reward.

Have a nice day everyone.

AKA clickbait, AKA Rickrolled.

I don't think right now OO / placing is the route to take given the current share price, current public knowledge of the company and that it's only been a couple months since the last OO / placing.

Last time round at 0.35p pre consolidation (which equals 3.5p now) only 38% of shareholders took up the offer. If they pull this trick again the amount they are going to raise won't even be enough to pay the utility bills.

To build shareholder confidence they need results and subsequently show these results to lenders to fund their business plan.

CEG - stay communicative, stay transparent and show shareholders what you are capable of.

If successful there definitely will be but right now just confirmation that the well is drilled, cemented and we still have to wait 2 weeks for results doesn't mean jack to holders.

BOD needs to up their game in communication as well as publish accounts otherwise just time alone will kill them as holders are becoming more anxious and selling as a result whereas potential buyers are sitting on the side-line seeing where this goes.

I read a lot of posts on here but rarely post anything myself.

The way I see CEG in simple terms right now:

License gets renewed + S2 drilling news is positive + P1 analysis is positive = SP will multiply probably back to pre Feb crash levels.

License falls through / CEG has to pay a fine + S2 flops + P1 flops = You can say goodbye to your money and CEG. They won't have anything else going for them and any OO's / placing offers will not be taken up by the majority of shareholders.

Anything between these two and we will be sat in limbo like we are now with no real meaningful movement. Could be months or years before a catalyst comes again.

I'm still in because I believe with something so big on the line, human nature will do whatever they have to do to survive i.e. they will fight for all those points above (how they do it? I don't now, I'm no expert).

No updates doesn't necessarily mean it's positive or negative. They could be so close to a major breakthrough they want a couple more days to provide a solid statement to everyone. Or things have gone so bad that they want to hide it from everyone for as long as possible.

It's a waiting game my friends. GLA

Feels like the calm before the storm.

Investors who wanted to be in would have bought in by now. Investors who wanted to be out in case of bad news would have sold by now.

As soon as news hit there will be a flurry of transactions be it buy or sell.

Divide the number of BPC shares you have by 10.

Multiple the price of the BPC shares you paid for by 10.

This is now the number of shares / price you are holding at for CEG

Looking at the share price over the last 5 years it seems like CEG had 5 meaningful spikes.

Aug 2018 - spiked from 10p to 60p because of exclusive talks with a oil major but they subsequently pulled out dropping the price down to 17p.

Mar 2019 - spiked from 10p to 31p because Bahamas exploration license was renewed then dropped down to 15p because ????

Aug 2019 - spiked from 14p to 28p as they commit themselves to the exploration well offshore the Bahamas then dropped down to 17p because ????

Feb 2020 - spiked from 19p to 42p as they get environmental greenlight for Perseverance well then dropped down to 12p because of Covid-19?

Jun 2020 - spiked from 12p to 27p because they won a 30-year Argentina offshore licence then dropped down to 6p because of Perseverance well not being commercially viable.

I tried looking into what caused these spikes (and then the subsequent sharp falls) but I couldn't find all the answers.

Would be happy for someone else to provide further info as well.

Though not accurate, this can be useful in telling us what share prices can be (UP OR DOWN) depending on the upcoming results.