Member Info for AnniaAurelia

So bounce in oil price and harbour energy due to Iran threat to "activate other fronts". Serious threat of closure to Bab al Mandreb Strait

From Sky News

The Bab al Mandeb Strait connects not just the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea but also gives ships coming from the latter access to the Suez Canal higher up.

It is one of the world's most important routes for seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean.

Professor Samir Dani of Keele University Business School previously told this blog that, if Iranian attacks around Suez led to an effective closure there, the disruption would go way beyond oil and gas.

He said:

"The closure of the Suez Canal would cause further havoc and chaos across the world, not only related to oil and gas but choking the supply chain route of everyday goods from Asia to Europe... The closure of the Red Sea route would lead to routing of ships from Asia to Europe around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to further travel time of an average of 15 days (if not more), additional fuel requirements, and overall, a rapid increase in shipping costs which will percolate down to the consumers."

I travelled to Milan Linate in Club Europe last week - the club section extended over the exit seats. The lady in cabin crew told me they had 54 in club that day!

Similarly - flew back from Zurich yesterday in economy - completely full.

Events might support dividend growth here.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate was last up 8.23% at $73.65 per barrel.

Global benchmark Brent surged 7.96% to $74.88 per barrel, setting them on course for their largest single-day gains since 2020.

Let's be pragmatic about energy security.

June 3rd 2025;

Deutsche Bank maintained a Hold rating on Polar Capital Holdings (POLR – Research Report), with a price target of £4.80.

RBC 10th January and reiterated in April:

The bank also initiated coverage of Polar Capital Holdings, with an 'outperform' rating and 600p price target, calling it "a premium proposition".

"POLR is set for a return to net inflows, which should underpin above sector average growth, and also provides a catalyst for the shares to re-rate," RBC said.

"We anticipate enhanced client demand for its differentiated and well-performing investment propositions amid an improving UK retail environment through 2025."

The bank's adjusted pre-tax profits forecasts are 4%/5%/6% ahead of consensus for FY25-27, with its dividend per share growth rate also higher.

"The current 12-month forward P/E of 9.5x is a 21% discount to its historical average representing an attractive entry point," it said.

Ex Dividend Date is 19 Jun 2025 (Thu)

Pay date 11 Jul 2025 (Fri)

Declared dividend of 40p per share

Then half year results due 13th August 2025

Next (forecast only results) ex dividend date 16 Oct 2025 pay date 07 Nov 2025

Firecast dividend 20p

So next few months are usually the most eventful!