RE: Sunday Roast - New CGNR Christmas Interview29 Dec 2021 16:50
Death, I am not the way off. When this resource was confirmed, it was based on the gold price of $1300 back in time; gold price is at $1800 at this stage. Unless Conroy has confirmed NPV of $72 million very recently based on current metrics? If so, I am happy to be corrected; please share that recent RNS.
Like I said, $250-275 mln, more than half of which belongs to Demir, so say $115 to £135 mln of profit just for Conroy, minus the cost of developing the mine.
I reckon Conroy will have $100 mln just for this confirmed resource (once mined in full of course).
Their ultimate target is 19-20 mln. Even if they will hit 5 mln all together, that's still 10x more than the confirmed resource, bringing it to the billion pounds. Obviously, there could be some unforeseen developments, requiring more capital, so I would wipe another 10% off. And thats for 25% of their target. What if they hit it in full?
Also, Gold industry's P/E is around of 14-15X. I accept that we are some time away from building the first mine, but that's why Shareholders have now voted for this JV with Demir.
At 15mln MCAP risk/reward makes sense to me.