Member Info for andsoforth

Thanks Aucuba. We seem to have very similar outlooks here, though I am infinitely less well informed than you. Thank you again.

Yes Aucuba, the oil link has been weakened, but not totally broken. The diversification should help in the long run. May I ask do you hold, and if so do you have a price target?

It is certainly in a downtrend. If it slips through 266 today it will drop into the low 250s, and maybe further. But in the longer term it is worth 400 or so, and should produce some dividends along that journey. Price to book is 0.62; PER sits at 15, and cashflow remains pretty respectable. Not a bargain, but not expensive either.

Here are the details:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/945025/bats-cannabis-moves-under-appreciated-says-broker-945025.html

Interesting that it has taken him two and a half years to actually buy shares in the company.

Full year like-for-like sales down 13%, with a solid recovery in the second half
· Underlying gross margin down 80bps due to lower sales volumes over the year
· Underlying operating loss of £53.3m (2019: £42.5m profit); better than previous guidance
· Underlying loss before tax of £76.3m (2019: £17.7m profit before tax)
· Net debt, pre IFRS 16, down to £4.1m (2019: £162.8m)
· Continued uncertainty remains regarding Covid-19
· Return to profitability and cash generation expected in H2
Seems about what was projected. Expect to see some profit taking here, and a consequent fall in price.

Mr Mattingley may well use the next interims to kitchen sink everything, and so bolster his own reputation. Selling a while back may have been the sensible option!

Neat summary from Guardian brokers:
"Announced, in its results for the year ended 31 December 2020, that revenue of $7.60 billion was
down 24.0% on 2019. On a like for like basis, adjusting for the disposals of the nuclear and industrial
services businesses in 1Q20, revenue was down 20.0%. This reflects significantly reduced revenue in
conventional energy which accounted for 70.0% of the 20.0% reduction, partly offset by strength in the
built environment, growth in renewables revenue which doubled to $520.00 million, and relatively
robust revenue in process & chemicals."

The dividend will have to wait, but the reduction in debt and the growth in renewables are both welcome.

Missed EBITDA margin at 8.3% (est 9.2%)
Bang on EBITDA ($630m)
Slight miss on revenue($7.56bn to $7.6bn)

All things concerned, not bad!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672671-glaxosmithkline-rejects-acdima-offer-for-its-egypt-business?utm_source=investing.com&utm_medium=referral

This is a good sign.

The continued fall today is disappointing. The results last week were not good, but there were positive statements about US growth, and Mr Mattingley coming in as Chairman should see some reforms getting pushed through. There is, of course, still the possibility of a merger/takeover driven by the activist shareholders. On a PER of 20 this is not exactly cheap, but with so much potential remaining I am happy to hold for now.

Drone attack on Saudi oil facilities:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-07/saudi-coalition-intercepts-five-drones-from-yemen-pursuing-more

As far as I can see the BBC didn't even report this!

https://fxnewsgroup.com/forex-news/institutional/playtech-takes-e221m-impairment-charge-for-finalto-as-sale-looms/

Above link shows the wee mess they have made with what is now Finalto. Having said that, they have now booked the losses, so we should be onwards and upwards from here.

Moves from outperform to sector perform, but target remains at 305. Market reaction? Goes up a bit!

This seems about the only thing of interest:
"Esken's strict financial discipline has resulted in the Group having £77.4m of cash and undrawn bank facilities available at 28 February 2021. The cash burn for the Group excluding Stobart Air and Propius was £9.4m for the six months to 28 February 2021. "

The company continues to sell assets and make major accounting adjustments. This along with the reliance on "adjusted EBITDA" makes me very nervous. However the saving grace is:

"Playtech continues to be cash generative and delivered operating cash flows of €366.9 million (2019: €320.9 million), with adjusted cash conversion of 89% (2019: 79%)."

This could have been a lot worse!

Marginally below broker concensus estimates, but dividend held an well covered.

Also an upgrade from Peel Hunt today, with an "add" and a target of 330. PER is currently 16, so with the the profit "well ahead" in January 330 seems a very fair price.

"Statutory loss before tax of £17.1 million (2019: £35.2 million profit), reflecting a significant level of non-underlying items, the vast majority having arisen as a direct consequence of COVID-19 and being non-cash in nature."
BUT
"Underlying profit before tax of £15.9 million (2019: £39.5 million), representing a strong reversal of the first-half underlying loss before tax of £1.2 million."
AND
"Total revenue only 15.3% below 2019 at £609.2 million (2019: £719.2 million), a strong recovery from the 30.6% below in the first-half."
2p dividend offered a sign of goodwill and confidence.

Overall a decent performance in the circumstances, and there seems a prospect that some of the mitigating measures employed will be maintained. Elsewhere DFS suggest there is a pent up surge of consumer spending. This should also lift HEAD.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/competition-and-mkts/rns/investigation-update--construction-suppliers/202103090701526102R/