Member Info for andsoforth

Thanks BH. Got my numbers wrong. Apologies for that.

Soon! Exact time impossible to say, but will end this month, possibly this week. Interestingly first shares bought at 254p!

Happy to depart from this board, to avoid any confusion. Good luck to all holders.

You may well be right there Doc. Today is, I think, Murria looking to boost the value of her holding; but I still reckon this will go through. Whether there is any real value here depends on how you assess NFC. Personally I do not like it, and am happy to be out.

...on Wednesday 6 July, to be followed by analyst briefing and retail presentation on Investor Meet Company .
PER = 8.3
PEG = 0.4
Forecast EPS growth = 25%
Yield = 3%
No debt.
Decent update in April.

..announced for Thursday 9 June.

22.3% is irrelevant if NFC can get the remaining 77.7%. ADVT will be happy to take the profit on their holding; management stay in their jobs; everyone is happy! If this hits the 160s I will buy back, but otherwise I do not see value here. (But I am usually wrong!)

Hello chaps. As I say, no longer holding here, but still a keen watcher. Surely NFC do not need the ADVT stake, as they can work a takeover around it. ADVT are now showing a good profit on their holding, and could take the resulting capital elsewhere and start again. I really would just accept that this is going through. Both businesses are largely run for the benefit of the management, just check all those options over the years. This will be the best result for them, so it will happen. If you like |NFC, hold here or even buy more. If not, it may be time to go.

I agree that al your scenarios are possible, but by far the most likely is that the deal goes through as is. Both sets of management want this, and that is what matters.

Just thought I would send a quick reply. I was lucky enough to sell out at an average of 218. I did this because I do not wish to hold shares in NFC. Management there are aligned with their own interests, and they do not always coincide with those of smaller shareholders. The new entity will, I believe, be a success, but that success will benefit NFC management much more than anyone else. If I still held, I would continue to do so, and sell on any rise once the merger is complete. This was my second largest holding, and I have moved the cash into dividend payers. Good luck to all still involved here.

...says "My view, is the bad news & uncertainty are all in the price, which looks really good value for longer term investors. who can cope with share price volatility." PER is now 8.2; 17% return on equity; earnings yield 8.8%. On their metrics DLAR scores 88% on a quality basis. I will hold, and add sub 90. We need to wait at least two years here.

Market cap = £12.4
Net cash position of £8.38 million
Therefore 67% of market cap held in cash!
Profitable, and paying a dividend of c2.5%.

CRS has been saying that, or similar, for a very long time. Any potential suitor will now let this run down into at least the 80s, before an offer would be made. Giving a 30% premium, which would be reasonable, would only then give us c115. The price was at that level a couple of months ago! Salvation must come from within. They need to win more, and better, contracts. In the meantime, I am holding!

If the market falls, it will take DLAR with it, but it is interesting to see this pottering around the 100 mark. I had a limit buy in at 99.5 and it has not been triggered. Where we finish today is important. If we hold above 100, we may see a bounce tomorrow, then we will likely follow the market unless news emerges. As we are profitable, I am happy to hold for now and see what develops. A single big contract would be transformational, but with CRS selling down an immediate full recovery is unlikely for nw. Bottom draw time!

Outlook: FY2023 to be flat on 2022. Headwinds continue.
"Since the end of our financial year, De La Rue has experienced further headwinds that are anticipated to have an impact
on adjusted operating profit in FY23. While the Company is making significant progress in its transformation programme,
the external environment is providing a substantial degree of uncertainty in the outlook. In particular, supply chain
inflation is anticipated to increase Group operating costs by an additional net of £5m this financial year, and there is a
possibility that disruption may affect revenue. For this reason, the Board now expects that adjusted operating profit for
FY23 will be broadly flat versus FY22, and weighted towards the second half. "

"...consistent with guidance in Jan 2022".
Revenue down 5.6%
Operating profit up 104%
EPS up 186%
BUT exceptional items £5.7m make a mess of the figures!!!
Turnaround is underway, but at a glacial pace!

End of this year, beginning of next, according to the company.

...due this Wednesday 25 May.

Not sure ADVT will have the firepower, or the conviction, to effectively respond. Interesting that the directors are recommending the NFC bid.

Indeed! Also they are stressing that they will modify the LTIP so that it "prioritises and aligns the leadership with the creation of shareholder value ", a real swipe at SAA management profligacy. But this is a people business, and if you are not nice to staff, they depart.
I have said this before, but it is worth remembering that Murria is NOT a software person, but a wheeler dealer, who made her money buying and selling companies at good prices. That is what she wants to do here.