Member Info for AndroclesB

MEM It’s a bit thin in relation to the Irish licences too, as far as I can see.

FandM

That’s been my view for a long time, besides some possible strategic reasons for keeping a low profile.

iPad cut and paste a bit flaky but you get the gist

Here we go...

So, we start with the value to PRD of a smallish EXAMPLE gas volume

That would result in the extraction of 3.65 BCF per year over 10 years...
again, that is an illustrative period

This value (nett of operating and capital costs ...Opex and Capex)
is given as $19.7m per year
and that is AFTER deducting ONHYM’s 25% share.

That is £14.17m per year (at FX: $1.39/£1).

You can express that as a figure of £3.88m for every ONE BCF
(I am not making this stuff up)

That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue).

Now ...take the target figures we have been given as the estimates of ‘gross recoverable prospective resources’ in Guercif:

Low estimate ...279 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020)

Best estimate ...819 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020 and 20th January 2021)

High estimate ...1,823 BCF (RNS of 20th January 2021)

Now ...apply the 1.51 pence per share per BCF (which already has a deduction for ONHYM’s 25% share) and we get:

Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share

Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share

High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share

Decent figures ...but hang on

This is not the likely end valuation

Of course, downwards adjustments have to be made for:

- NPV (the time value of money...it takes several years to extract the gas)

- A super large find may mean some international exports where prices could be lower than Moroccan industrial gas prices. (the way things are going... post Biden... I am revising my gas price assumptions...upwards)

- The possibility that not all of the “recoverable resources” can be recovered during the licence period or extensions thereof.

- Tax in Morocco will have to be paid eventually.

- Cost of Reserves Based Lending ... (or a partnering/farm deal) to finance further wells.

- PRD will need to leave something worthwhile for the buyer.

But ... on the upside...

MICHAEL CAINE...REPRISE...PART TWO

But ...on the upside...

In the medium term, the gas will not be trucked
(very expensive but very opportune re timing )
as it is in the model set out on 18th March

but it will be transported via the very adjacent GME pipeline ...
so operating expenses will drop significantly

Thus the value per BCF...nett to PRD ...will rise accordingly.

Where does that leave my calculations?

I am going to err on the safe side and ‘chop’ the earlier figures...

By more than half...

Of course, it is not scientific
and I can produce myriad reasons to argue it is too brutal

BUT...

my current working assumptions are that ...
on the sale of Guercif,
shareholders could receive a special dividend as follows:

Low estimate discovery: £2 per share

Best estimate discovery: £6 per share

High estimate discovery: £13 per share

As to timing…

I interpreted the Malcy interview as hinting that Paul thinks he will have all the data necessary for a sale in H1 2022....

WHAT!

It is also worth

Here you go

Afternoon all...

I said the other day that I would have a go at making the recent RNS a bit more ‘accessible’

Well....this is it...FWIW:

That RNS (18th March) is the FIRST time we have seen PRD give us more detailed information about what Guercif could really be worth to shareholders.

The RNS fills in many of the missing piece of the jigsaw for PRD/Morocco.

We knew how much gas the company is targeting
and now we know the value to PRD of much smaller example volumes of gas.

NB: It is really important to stress that these are EXAMPLE volumes

If we put the two together, we get a giant sized clue ...
And we can estimate the value of the type of large discoveries that PRD are actually expecting (remember Paul’s grin!).

The following is my own back of an envelope ‘try’ (timing?)
at valuing Guercif using the PRD supplied data...

I hope it starts a conversation here ...
as I am sure that others will be able to improve on this.

Here we go...

So, we start with the value to PRD of a smallish EXAMPLE gas volume

That would result in the extraction of 3.65 BCF per year over 10 years...
again, that is an illustrative period

This value (nett of operating and capital costs ...Opex and Capex)
is given as $19.7m per year
and that is AFTER deducting ONHYM’s 25% share.

That is £14.17m per year (at FX: $1.39/£1).

You can express that as a figure of £3.88m for every ONE BCF
(I am not making this stuff up)

That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue).

Now ...take the target figures we have been given as the estimates of ‘gross recoverable prospective resources’ in Guercif:

Low estimate ...279 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020)

Best estimate ...819 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020 and 20th January 2021)

High estimate ...1,823 BCF (RNS of 20th January 2021)

Now ...apply the 1.51 pence per share per BCF (which already has a deduction for ONHYM’s 25% share) and we get:

Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share

Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share

High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share

Decent figures ...but hang on

This is not the likely end valuation

Of course, downwards adjustments have to be made for:

- NPV (the time value of money...it takes several years to extract the gas)

- A super large find may mean some international exports where prices could be lower than Moroccan industrial gas prices. (the way things are going... post Biden... I am revising my gas price assumptions...upwards)

- The possibility that not all of the “recoverable resources” can be recovered during the licence period or extensions thereof.

- Tax in Morocco will have to be paid eventually.

- Cost of Reserves Based Lending ... (or a partnering/farm deal) to finance further wells.

- PRD will need to leave something worthwhile for the buyer.

But ... on the upside...

MICHAEL CAINE...REPRISE...PART TWO

But ...on the upside...

In the med

Hi MEM.

Do I recall that Heamo had predicted a placing by the end of next week ?

My LSE pop up ads feed is showing furniture with optical illusion cube inlays.

Woooo. …

It was a Methodology tweet ….

Foot, probably my bad, but I can’t see a recent post from M (ethodology?) or a video ?

Quey ?

Very nice. Just came back from Kitzbuhel. Hope the snow’s good.

Have fun

Where are you Wacky?

3 bullish bovines.

How about a contribution from each option, and let’s go ballistic , ;-)

This is brief due to rubbish mobile device. In order

1.Offtake with industrial partner - this can be constrained to a dilute to minimum impact to raise small amount for initial MOU work.

2.Funding through monetisation of tandt

3.Equity based raise after testing

4.Ireland farm out.

By crikey she was good.

Interesting morning.

Russia invades Ukraine.

GRH moves to Birmingham.

OB brings out his ludicrous logical fallacy :

“Johnny stole my sweets, and if you ask him he’ll deny it”

“Johnny - did you steal the sweets”

“No”

“You see, that proves it”

It’s not very helpful really, but maybe the only way to justify wild accusations.

Hi Sefton,

I’ve no idea where you got that from ….. apologies if I’ve said anything out of order. Certainly never intended
:-(

Goodness me, well done young un.

I touch heavy for me but still very impressive!

I was raised on the Allman Brothers, Little Feat, Ry Coode, Stevie Ray …..

Linguistics, geology, business, rock and roll.

A day on here is like a year at university !

I was in Austria last week, and skied an off piste route called Saumilchgrabben.

Grabben is canyon in German - I thought the read across to Keith’s geology was interesting.