The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Had a moment of deja vu there....
Rockhead,
" We are on the 3rd stope LHS1. Were the grades in CAF1 & 2 poor? NO! How many stopes are expected in the mine illustration here?"
They can project as many stopes as they want, but the proof is in the pudding. My argument is based on results. Yours is based on some fairytale in the future that it will all become better and it's too early to tell.
Facts:
Bara Consulting Limited – Ore Reserve Statement dated May 2015,
"Proven" reserves: 15.00 G/T
Probable: 14.3 G/T
Where as in 2023. Actual reserve results:
Jan - March = 5.35 G/T.
April - May = 4.00 G/T.
(Getting worse)
What part of that isn't "enough" to justify an incorrect JORC. Not once have we hit even 50% of "proven" reserves. Not even close.
And my personal favourite from Q1 RNS. " Harsher than expected weather conditions. Production totalled 1,805 ounces (previously forecasted 3,000-3,500 ounces of gold)"
Less than half which tallies with the grades above.
And this gem from a more recent RNS. " Long hole stoping is progressing well and for the most part, aside from lower than expected grade".
Lower than expected. Not went to plan. Not as expected. Not what was projected. Which variable tells you the JORC doesn't tally.
With respect Rockhead, I hope you're not a miner. LOL!
Perhaps since you're leaving the financials to someone else, leave the mining too.
It's misleading because it represents a mine body that has not materialised. Self evident this is the case. Or do you really think the company has just picked out a bad hole out of the entire body. Highly unlikely. Enough have been mined to show the statement isn't right.
It should be updated because they are actively raising funds with an incorrect JORC. The two don't go hand in hand.
"I see no merit in preferring such as Africa for mining. UK success, jobs and communities are IMO more worthy of support."
The merit is in the profitability, low cost base. All good and well being worthy of support. But the support won't last long if it goes bust taking shareholder funds with it. Not a charity.
R
I don’t think they were cherry picking previously due to a lack of resourcefulness, merely a lack of resource (cash) forcing them to extract the best possible grade asap.
Good analysis but, modelling aside, we are a month into the great saviour that was LHS and the grades can only be described as poor, to date.
Will the grades improve? I doubt it.
Will the JORC statement be updated accordingly? It should be done as a priority as it is misleading.
Imho rather than analysing income variants such as quantity of ore and the grade quality we should be casting a closer eye on cost variables.
I’ve said before and I’ll say again, I think the mine has fundamental challenges with its cost base which it can’t overcome in this country with the high cost of operating as opposed to someware like Africa where the costs are not prohibitive. At least on this scale.
I think this ties in with your point about it not being efficient to mine in certain fashions.
These inefficiencies won’t be overcome by anything other than pulling higher quantities of ore from the mine (which is why they moved to lhs in the first place I believe) but this mine can only deliver so much ore at one time due to the nature of the vein and scale of the operation. Fundamentals they can’t overcome.
Sometimes it takes companies this long to find out the true cost of extraction but it seems this company, having found this out, don’t wish to restructure as early as possible to prolong the life of the mine as a productive entity and not one that merely covers costs.
Of course, there is the debt cloud hanging over that will, in the very near future, require payments to be made on top of covering costs.
Restructuring needed now. Don’t waste more gold.
Tonight I just wanted to share a short thought in the spirit of renewal, which many here may need at the moment. Including this business which is facing tough times. To both any friends and any old adversaries.
I know many will be in a difficult position right now. But no matter if your in incredible profit, or your currently facing a loss. The important things in life aren't mined or dictated by a graph. They are in friends, in family and in hope that our life will be better tomorrow than it was today.
It will be what it will be. Good luck to all and God bless.
I was.
As in all things in life, we acquire perspective, learn and adapt.
I'm out now, and glad to be. Happy to see others learn from my mistake.
Personally I think the mine and business has fundamental flaws that can't be overcome. One being the narrowness of the vein doesn't suit LHS because it dilutes the grades. Second being the cost to mine here as opposed to someware in africa. Fuel, tax, estate dues, machinery cost, labour etc are all prohibitive. Especially when selling gold as a mere commodity and not as a niche product to the wider public in various forms. Production in niche format but selling at wholesale prices never works in any business. No economies of scale and no premier product price. Worst of both worlds.
Not withstanding the lack of decent grade, the legal obstacles, the omissions in proper management from the company, environmental issues etc etc. The list goes on as to why imo it probably won't succeed.
I think administration to restructure as a smaller, slower, private enterprise with a lower cost base is the only way this mine will see profit. Unfortunately many will loose money for that to happen.
I was just explaining my point baz for the benefit of completeness. No offence meant.
Actually I just said the other day, I don’t think they intended to deceive at the start. I think they’ve ended up in a mess they can’t get out of due to fundamental failings and have been selective with the truth to keep the lights on. The only thing that’s kept it open is continuing raises/dilutions but if the entire truth were told, it would be unlikely this finance would be available and the end would happen sooner
I think the high grades do exist. But not in enough of a quantity to generate higher average grades. You will always have pockets of high grade and pockets of scrap. It's the overall grade that counts because it's the overall cost to mine that needs covered. Not just the cost of picking out pockets.
Expectation V reality perhaps
My understanding - not an expert - is the best seams in the world generate 40g/t. If that's accurate, saying 12, doesn't give us much hope. Especially if our grades are 4.9g/t based on scotgolds own figures.
George I admire you’re optimism but when you say enough money to operate. Where are you getting that from?
The 2M raise is less than the 3M that lasted less than 5 weeks, and that was including purchasing a drill rig . They have been spending more than they mine every day at the moment.
If you’re right, that’s great news, but I don’t see where you’re getting that from. Unless you mean enough for a few weeks?
I think we will see a future RNS that paints a great picture but doesn’t discuss underlying problems as we have seen in the past. At the moment, without shareholder confidence the game is over.
The minute the dilutions and raises stop, the company can’t exist. As per the leaked email about giving shareholders the chance to save the company.
Since you ask so nicely.
4.9g/t is what was taken from the stope they worked that was supposed to be the great saviour of the company.
Producing such results is graded poor grade in mining standards.
Not much else I can say.
Its 4.9g/tonne
World Gold Council Definitions:
Low grade 0 - 5 gold grams per tonne
Average grade 5 - 8 gold grams per tonne
High grade 8 + gold grams per tonne
So low grade.
On the last stope, the grades went to scrap.
Peace and quiet? At last.
By the way, i'm asking YOU because you're the one running around telling everyone it's a great opportunity. If it is such a great opportunity as you claim, then you would be able to have dialogue over serious questions on the validity of the opportunity.
But you can't answer. And the reason you refuse to answer the questions i've posed multiple times is because the opportunity is a bad one.
The bottom line is you need the price to rise or you have lost tens of thousands of pounds. That's why you don't want me asking questions that show it for what it is.
Eck, care to answer why grades are so poor? Where all the 8m raised recently has went? What about the 3m that vanished in less than 5 or 6 weeks? Or what about the SEPA report? 8k cash position even? Or perhaps about the administration solicitors in london? Going concern issues? Burning more cash than brining in every month? Cost to mine exceeding the value of gold?
None of that? Just generic rubbish then.... And i'm the one who's not credible. Good one
The narative that was being pushed that everything was rosy with SGZ isn't being allowed to propegate any longer. Certain protagonists don't like that.
The truth is coming out, slowly but surely and they don't want it because they bought in a much higher price than the current one. They don't want anything negative, even if it's true, being said here as otherwise they will loose money.
So in short, yayay, greed. Greed has turned certain people into a one sided PR team hoping other honest people will pump in money to bail them out. When I and others rally against that, it creates friction.
Hahahaha. That's the big answer is it?
People can just for themselves the questions posed and the LACK of answers.
Damning.
Keep your money away from this shower of pretenders folks. It's only going on way, and it aint to mountains of gold and riches.
23M IN AUS because that how it was posted due to the company being registered in AUS. No lies. Just you can't interpret it.
Do you really think 16M USD because the company gets paid in USD is any better? Really? It could be 100M because they can't even pay the bills without servicing debt.
The BFS predictions you refer too. They were relevant when based on an earlier start, a more successful grade and the life of the mine being longer than the company entering administration. Which won't be long based on the cash they need to survive. Also based on 2000oz per month, every month. Otherwise they would never have funded the mine.
We're 13 years into the mine and 12M/16M/23M (Take your pick of currency) in debt, with poor grades and multiple problems and you want to use an old projection as your proof everything is fine? lol. Ca'mon graeme. Laughing stock stuff.
Now my questions:
Your very own "evidence" has a pool of water leading from the tailings on what appears to be a dry day.
Pic here- https://www.flickr.com/photos/198120633@N04/
A dry stack operating within the correct tolerances would not have such a pool coming off it. The rest of the ground is dry. Any pile of anything will hide water beneath it. It acts in the same way a water table does. What you cannot hide, is the run off. So your own evidence is damming. About as credible as you. Why?
Https://twitter.com/Sajic15/status/1655973136095928322/photo/1
I quote, "unable to contain it" so you can pond count all day long.
Any update on why even SGZ don't want you as their spokesman? Considering they have attempted to disassociate from you?
Or perhaps why you have stolen gold on your mantelpiece?
Or what your average price is these days and why you want it to go up so badly?
Or what about the 23M debt?
Or why SGZ is in discussions with the park authority over bond issues?
Or why the grades are "poor"
Or why they're in discussions with administration solicitors?
Or why after 13 years, they're still burning more money every month than they can mine?
Or where is the 8M raised in the last short period?
Or perhaps the 3M that vanished in less than 6 weeks?
Why is it costing more to mine than the value of gold?
Why won't the national park disclose why they're looking to discuss bond payments?
Will SEPA close the company or fine the company for breaching environmental agreements?
What's the status of administration discussions or police investigations?
That's just a few to start. I've multiple more if you want. Time to start answering questions everyone wants to know.