Member Info for AMcash

Interesting to see if the Directors buy in ?

Is anyone on here going to the AGM ?

The cohorts on AI staring June and September will be funded outside the old DofE contract...My understanding is that ends in July, so 3 or 4 months courses need to end by then and all Milestone 2s claimed by end of July 25. M2 is the completion of the course and an interview. M3 getting a job run to end of 2025.

I am guessing Counter also aids students finding full time jobs, through them being deployed via Counter. This model looks like an enhanced Agency solution.

As I stated it would be good to know the following if anyone is at the AGM:

1. Size of a new Regional contract.

2. Value of Apprenticeships pa

3. Performance of the ending central contract in terms of M2s % conversion and expected M3s.

4. Confirmation no prior accrued not billed income is not going to require reversal (as in 2023. The income recognition used accrued income across the bootcamps and then after that actual billing occurs.

5. Estimate of Counter in new product mix.

They cannot tell.us of bids they do not know yet about..

It looks like the only regional win is lancs at 24 seats. I am guessing £5k x 24 = £120k then take a £20k contingency for drop out and not getting a job.

Would be great if they set out their new strategy to replace the £10m central contract. How much is B2B, who much is regional. I see they do apprenticeships - how.much is that too.

Before it was all about big central contracts which appeared to make up 90%. That also fueled outsourced work to get their M3 milestones on that contract.

Would also be great to know how the wrap up.of the old DofE contract is going.

I feel.in the dark.

On Laura - she appears to encourage anyone that asks any questions to be reported. Publishing the LSE compliance emails etc. Hopefully it is her that gets banned.

London have put out request for bids of £27m closing this month. Makes you think Northcoders that deserves a cut is now badly named. No news on GMCAs cut. I know Lancs is peanuts.

NC have great IP, but Labour have stitched up the private providers. If anyone on here has some political contacts then please give them a kicking.

It is ridiculous that good companies are facing this nightmare of central contracts ending in an area of key importance to the UK skills.

I guess private schools are saying the same.

Some investors on here seem much more confident. I am just very worried Labour have left the industry in tatters.

Those that point to historical results need to understand that it is beyond June that matters.

I have been heavily criticised for joining the debate, normally I do not bother with chit chat but I truly believe the industry has been taken for a ride by the new Government for political reasons. As it is a private sector education business.

I hope someone in government wakes up.

Hopefully NC are lobbying hard. But the end of the central contracts was well documented in FE magazine months before the YE RNS. This is spooked investors that had expected a comprehensive plan to be announced and not a second RNS after negative institutional meeting.

I feel retail investors are sitting in the dark and yet have invested for all the right reasons.

Let hope my analysis is too conservative and we can all in hindsight laugh about it.

But if these forums are to be of any value then facts need to understood.

Laura Do you work for Northcoders ?

You appear to speak of write on that basis.

When they announce new contracts everyone will be happy. Only 2 months to go until these new contracts start.

Yes. But if you point that out and therfore all the results are based on that and the contract ends June. Well people shoot you down.

I do hope good news is coming on the trading side.

The UK needs some online retailer success after Asos and boohoo and THG.

Personally I got burnt on the fall. When you see Amazon continue to grow and succeed it is a shame the UK cannot compete.

For THG they own products and brands and this is where their value now lies. They need to exploit that value. I feel the CEO cannot run two companies that have a supplier/customer relationship.

I have tried to help retail investors understand the reality of why the shares have fallen.

And would fall.

The spread is so large that a sell is now very clear.

This is now a retail stock. Small buys and sells will drive the price.

Directors can buy too. And know that would add massive confidence.

My understanding is the regional contracts are between £100k and £1m per provider. So the contral contract will need a minimum of 10 local ones.

I cannot say I agree with Labour for changing all of this.

But a spread on price now shows who is buying and selling.

He cannot carry on being CEO of both.

Simply trying to explain why they are down on the SP. As we both point out investors see value in the Ncode platform (IP), which has been valued at £5m. 905 of their income comes from a contract ending July. A great buy if you know that contract is renewing. Sadly, I do not have such information. Maybe you do.

I listened to the presentation on Wednesday and have reviewed the accounts. From what I can work out they do seem to have developed a good learning platform in Ncode. They have no plan to sell that to other training companies or say larger corporations. Their sales last year where 90% from one contract with Department of Education. That contract ends in June/July this year. The CFO said there was £4m left on the contract in the first half year. DofE have stated that those types of central contracts are not expected to be extended and instead the funds will go via Councils. This means Coders have to bid across potentially a 100 councils or say 10 regions to get the same size funded business. Skills England is still being set up and so nothing there can happen this year.

Institutional investors are very nervous that Coders are too focused on the one big central contract. The regional ones can be as small as say £150k. It would be interesting to know the size of the one they mentioned.

For now I am out, their value is in the tech platform. The risk is they run out of cash HY2.

As an aside, someone in the industry noted Coders have accrued £1.6m on contract revenue ahead of achieving the grant funding milestones (M1/M2/M3), this is an aggressive income recognition policy and in 2023 they had to reverse £0.5m of such income when the prior contract ended. So there is £1.6m now at risk mainly relating to students getting jobs up to six months after the course ends.

In their DofE contract it will be standard that there is a KPI to achieve 75% conversion to FTE. Below say 65% can be deemed a contract failure and below say 50% could risk failure to renew - if any investor have a feel on their performance it would be welcomed.

I expect their market cap to drop to £4m to £5m.

A bounce would happen if a new central contract is suddenly announce.