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Pione3r. You are right, the fact Turkish Airlines didn't show interest was exactly because they can't own/operate it. They can have a minority share but I can't immediately see why they would be that interested.
As to Anex Gmbh, they can't own it either unless Anex Gmbh is backed by at least 51% European owners. To run Azur Air they had a Dutch holding company participate in it and while that could be questionable too no one bothered to challenge the OAC and they ran it into the ground within 2 years anyway.
Paul, ah we're back to Turkish Airlines. So maybe now rather than going back to Fosun explain to us how that's going to work? How is Turkish Airlines involved if they can't buy the airlines?
why are you again talking about Fosun? Do you actually read anything? You reacted to something that related to Turkish Airlines BUYING the airlines. It related to a "bidding war". All stuff you talk about but are avoiding to discuss. Are you hoping people don't read original posts and just yours and somehow going to think you are smart?
No need to explain to me what Fosun is planning to do. I can assure you I understand it far better than you. For example I wouldn't claim Fosun would do a D4E cause that's not how it works.
For now the only thing we know for sure is that he bought shares at up to 5.5p a share. A new RNS would have to come out to get a better idea whether he's in deeper or not. In general the guy is fairly unknown in Europe and hardly has a reputation to defend. So let's name a few options:
- He sells his shares. He probably would make a profit if he plays it smart
- He uses it as leverage to negotiate a participation in the Biblio Globus deal. That would make sense. He'd have a shot at becoming the largest Russian Tour operator. It's also not something Fosun would care about a lot.
- He finds a reputable partner to work with and makes a counter offer to the plan involving Fosun still with D4E
- He finds a reputable partner to work with and makes a counter offer to the plan involving Fosun without D4E
Consider those ordered by likeliness (from most to least). Rising SP only makes a lot of sense for the 4th option and maybe a little the 3rd if he finds a way to limit dilution. As long as he doesn't show his hand though everything is just speculation and you'll be flooded with all kinds of BS from people trolling the forum.
Paul, do you suffer from a lack of reading comprehension?
If I say a non-EU entity can't own the airline cause everyone and his dog (you included BTW) thinks Turkish airlines is going to buy it you answer by explaining how Fosun will solve it (essentially by NOT owning it). Ironically enough, I am probably one of the people that has explained the most why Fosun/TCG are required to take that step.
The entire point is: the single option that is on the table is Fosun and it means a wipe out of shareholders and you are talking up the SP calling it a "bidding war". As I also explained how it works in regards to shorts: as long as the only option on the table is massive dilution those who benefit from a rising SP are shorters.
Puss, as TCG is not a UK focused company (actually a minority of their operations is UK) it will still apply. Otherwise good luck getting people from one EU country to another. I can't imagine the UK being as strict in order to get an OAC for flights that aren't possible with the EU OAC so that shouldn't be too much of an issue after Brexit.
For starters: don't listen to anyone who still believes someone outside EU can own the airline. It is a clear indication that they have no clue as to what they are talking about. So the whole idea that Kocnar would have backing from Turkish Airlines: Pie in the sky. This forum is full of "leaks" that range from unlikely to ludicrous and most ideas have 0 facts supporting them.
As a shareholder would you really trust Kocnar? What exactly makes him so interesting?
- His entire operation is dwarfed by Thomas Cook in every single market. Even in the only market he's big in (Russia) TC is bigger after taking a participation in Biblio Globus
- His experience in successfully managing UK operations? Well he tried: http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/41432/anex-distances-itself-from-enjoy-holidays-collapse
- The massive success of their German airline maybe? Didn't last 2 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azur_Air_(Germany)
- Or the fact that their Russian Airline was so reliable it almost got their license revoked? http://www.rusaviainsider.com/azur-air-certificate-restricted-flight-delays/
I am interested in seeing how he plans to offer something interesting but without proper allies he's no competition for Fosun's plan at all. I do not expect Fosun to make an offer for the shares unless Kocnar comes up with something that effectively solves the fact that after this Fiscal Year TC either gets money and the debt solved or goes into administration.
And for all those who claim shorts will close. As long as the facts are against him this is a shorter's dream. The sp goes up even though all information points towards a massive dilution so shorts will go up unless actual facts suggest otherwise.
And as to the typical "you are a shorter" comeback: As this is a shorter's dream any shorter should be talking up this SP cause that allows them to make even more money (they make money twice: first they hold the borrowed shares as long as the price goes up, then they sell it and then they just have to wait for reality to set in).
Invesco was the RNS on 29th of July. Note also that for holding changes below 5% there are no requirements to make announcements so for all the holdings below 5% I'm not sure where Red thinks he can get reliable numbers from.
With Fosun holding 18% and some other non-EU holders holding some more his limit will be reached soon enough. If he wants to single handledly stop whatever comes up he needs 25% which is possible only if aside from Fosun there's currently less than 7% in non EU hands. Otherwise TC will be forced to assure voting rights are restricted or the airlines will be an issue.
What he needs urgently is EU partners and a semblance of a counter offer to what is currently on the table. The balance sheet hasn't changed nor have the rules.
Anyone in the trade who reads "with the skillset and complementary capabilities Anex Tour shall put forward" will want part of whatever he's smoking.
There's a Turkish-Russian link here with the JV that TCG set up with Sarpedon Travel so they could buy Biblio Globus. That's recent and has definitely affected him and Anex and no doubt it would be interesting for him to get some leverage there in order to get a bigger share of the Russian market. His chances in Western Europe? Just look at how Anex performs in Germany and you will know enough.
1) He was registered in old British firms as being Turkish, the chances he has an additional EU nationality seem slim, those don't really drop from the sky if you're not living in the EU.
2) Being mentioned as a well established business man isn't exactly the same as being a billionaire
3) Whether Anex is a GMBH or not doesn't matter. As stated: He can not own an EU airline INDIRECTLY. So if he owns the majority of Anex and Anex owns an EU airline then it is still not ok. If it was ok why do you think Fosun is not allowed to control the airline? Club Med SAS is French so if we follow your logic they can own an airline.
Azur Air Germany did get an AOC and it isn't entirely clear how the ownership worked but it wasn't exactly a shining example of business mastery either given it was an utter failure and shuttered quite quickly. If it had been bigger and the ownership structure was questionable the AOC would get challenged by competitors. In this particular case I'm sure they didn't really care and were ok with seeing it crash and burn in less than 2 years.
Plenty of people here claim he's a billionaire but I don't really see where they get the idea from.
Also for anyone who thinks he wants the airline: he's not European, he can not own the airline. The idea that he has companies in EU countries is entirely unrelated. He's not allowed to be a direct nor an indirect majority holder of a European airline.
If he really is planning to battle it out with Fosun then he needs allies. If he doesn't have allies he'll get burned. I'm interested in seeing what his play exactly is but very little of the ideas floated here make sense.
"list out all their prior % holdings and their current ones if you cant provide that you have no credibility!"
Why would he have to read the RNS for you? Anyone holding over 5% reports it unless they go back below that 5%. Go read it yourself, it isn't exactly hard is it? Your credibility is definitely low given most of what you write here seems to be written while under the influence of some form of drugs.
For the bids: TCG employees asked Sten the question and he stated initial non binding bids were fine but when it came to submitting binding ones they lowered them to the point where a sale no longer made sense.
I have that from a reliable inside source and have already posted it here before.
A court case would hardly get past the first hurdle.
Paul, I am not a shorter. On the contrary I lost quite a bit of money here. Though I immediately sold on that Friday morning cause at such a point in time it is 100% guaranteed to drop. Even if you think it can be saved there's really 0 reason not to sell on such an announcement. Anyone who sold immediately could use the exact same money now to get a lot more shares if they considered the dust has settled and there was a reason to think it is at a price equivalent to what the diluted share value will be. Personally I think it isn't there yet and needs to be lower still before a buy in is an interesting gamble.
But all the ideas around court cases, fraud ... are just insane. It isn't supported by facts and we all knew all along it was a gamble given the debt pile. I initially thought they would manage to sell the airline but with that option gone there's really nothing left to do except for that D4E.
Paul. Your scenarios seem to completely skip the fact that the majority of TCG business is not even in UK yet you think reorganising UK is the silver bullet. You are of course far from the only one who makes that mistake but it does immediately assure that what you propose is far from realistic and lacks any business sense.
Also for those still going on about the bids: there was no misleading information. The initial non binding bids were just fine, it was only when binding bids had to be made that they all started to cry about how bad business was and how they could not afford to make a good bid. Only then did TCG change course as they had to.
Paul, both bonds are listed as senior unsecured bonds. They hence have priority over certain other debt but that's it. There's no assets linked to it. I would suspect the credit facilities from the banks will be the secured debt here (haven't managed a way to verify this yet). If the credit facilities are secured then it's fairly clear why the bonds are considered worth so little in case of liquidation. They may be senior but that doesn't mean anything will be left when it's their turn.