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HK85 they published a bunch of paperwork end of August which seemed a bit ambiguous. E.g. it called the Fosun money a loan. Something that may sound "odd" but that ties in with the rest of the document as it states Fosun can convert it to 75% Tour Operating and 25% airline ownership if they wish to do so.
Essentially based on what is there it seems like what they plan to do is multi-phased. TCG needs money fast and having Fosun and others add money to the group combined with or after a D4E may essentially be too late. My understanding hence is that the deal will say Fosun is going to put in money on the same level as the banks as secured creditors and will do so soon. The actual handling of the entire deal will then take a few more months.
That would also get us to a point where Fosun is still in a good position if anything goes wrong along the way. If it goes into administration they will just pick up what they want and walk off as they can be first in line.
Those documents hence did contain some hints on things to come and debate here was rarely on that level. Though mostly because here it's just a battle between those who for whatever still think there'll be a magical outcome and those who are trying to make them see sense.
In order to expect any reasonable debate here one would actually have to ignore all the loonies who dream of rainbows and just have a serious debate on the deal but that's not exactly very likely. Ironically enough any ignoring going on is mostly the other way around. It's also why I gave up on posting here.
HK85, you are stretching the meaning of the word speculation here. In the end what matters is the odds. You can debate on the odds between the deal happening (maybe in a slightly altered state compared to what has been made public) and administration. But that's not speculation. There's firm evidence that either the deal happens or TC goes into administration. So the combined statement: "It will be either the deal or administration" is not speculation.
Chances that it is anything else is less than 1% and as such indeed speculation cause it's all bs with no evidence whatsoever.
Speculation would have been a potential excuse if only he had not posted "I m not allowed to say....may get me in to trouble....". He essentially implied he had inside information.
I am not saying he pushed it. I am wondering where he got the information from. I can't find anything that justified starting hype at 15:57 yet somehow he supposedly did and it significantly overshot his expectation. In pretty much every case someone tries to ramp it they fail miserably both at ramping and predicting yet Amers massively undershot what happened at close. So he was right and not even optimistic enough.
He started posting at 15:57 which would mean inside information.
Essentially the entire rise at the end of the day came after he started posting. I must admit I'm very intrigued. Especially given what happened at the end of the day. Price extensions are possible in case there's news at the end of the day but I haven't seen any news at the end of the day just Amers' posts. So anyone have a source for any news that could have driven the price?
I hope Amers doesn't end up getting some nasty questions cause this could look like an attempt at manipulation.
BTW Amers, what's up with that second message? Did you actually buy 1.7M?!?
15:57 7.29 close
16:00 19P bid coming on Monday, thats why i have added another 1.7Mill
16:02 This share is 20p all day. watch this space!!
16:13 7.29 close today - FACT
16:19 There will be an RNS at the close to say MK has been in touch with BOD and has added another 2% to his holding. Come on 7.29 close today
Monday it will start at around 19P
16:22 I m not allowed to say....may get me in to trouble.....Watch these shorters gets burn on Monday!!
16:25 I have over 115,415 holding and show loss and it's going to turn in to profit on Monday. IMHO
Puss, the actual share price prior to D4E is not something they are forced to care about. Say for some weird reason the share starts to rise and ends up at 50p. Do you think they are now going to say "well we'll swap your 200M in debt for 400M shares cause shareholders think a share is worth 50p"?
Final dilution will be based on the expect market cap after dilution and the amount of control the lenders want. The result for existing shareholders will be what was said in advance: single digit, near 0, share value.
No, he can't buy the equity ;) What he can do is make an offer for the tour operator. Say tomorrow NK says "I'll give you 2B for tour ops", that leaves TCG with 2B and a profitable airline. They will listen for sure and NK will obviously have to spend a few more 100M on the Tour Operator but it will leave everyone _very_ happy.
As he can't buy the equity but can in theory buy tour ops I'd say it is about as likely as me getting laid by Claudia Schiffer (I think my chances are higher than illbetabuck ;-) ).
Mostly ok but just like FT they seem to think the 750 or 900M are just there to cover for winter trading which I think is *******s. If the plan goes thru what you will see is that they will invest and spend again. So that 150M more is more likely to be used to fund investment than that it would be really needed for liquidity. It is actually in the RNS: "This additional capital, of approximately £150 million, will provide further liquidity headroom through the coming 2019/20 winter cash low period and ensure the business can continue to invest in its strategy." and same when the 750M was announced "Under the proposal, the Group is targeting an injection of £750 million of new money which would provide sufficient liquidity to trade over the Winter 2019/20 season and the financial flexibility to invest in the business for the future." They are not providing a split so who knows what they really need.
Given there's also the comment that it is possibly driven by demands of the stakeholders towards each other it may not even be related to winter trading at all but may just mean Fosun has been asked to stump up more and Fosun in turn asked bond holders to give some cash too.
He can't really. He has him on ignore so he doesn't know the content. Unless the board administrators are utter fools they probably see that the reply was relevant and hence not disruptive.
Quisty, technically you are wrong. what happens is they swap debt for equity by giving debt holders shares while wiping the debt. As the debt is gone the company as a whole (all shares combined) is worth more than it is now but because there are so many shares compared to before the individual shares are worth less. So if the value is 100M before dilution and there are 1billion shares they would be worth 10p each. If you then give debt holders 19 billion shares and the value becomes 500m your shares are worth 2.5p.
In the above I obvously simplified it rather than guessing what it will be for TCG.
Big.show. as I've said before: the fact that the Tour Operator will no longer be public is pretty much common knowledge. The public company TCG in which shareholders will have a tiny share (due to dilution) will be the airline.
All of that has been known for pretty much a month. You are essentially telling us you know yesterday's lotto numbers ...
It's not that it was earth shattering. Most of it you could have guessed all along or it was announced already.
I read it and after reading it I feel even more sure NK has not made an offer but I have always considered him not in a position to be able to do so nor do other people in the business think he can. So any info in there that supported that was to be expected.
Only looks chunky if you ignore it says UT at the end of the line ...
This sounds a bit like musical chairs but the one who has the last chair is the loser as his share gets diluted and the rest have made a profit on his back ...
Puss, are you on drugs? This is what you said:
"So TCHI had a director called Anthony York - san Leung
The only named director when waterfront was formed in 2017 was anthony York -san Leung
Wow lucky man, director in 2 private comapnys. "
Westfort and TCHI are the exact same thing ...
Puss, the LMEY website is down. I wasn't talking about the the TCHI site.
As to their account filings. As buck already said: look here:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11006779
They haven't filed them and if they had then it would have been public.
As to our friend Anthony of whom you are so suspicious. He's on LinkedIn as Group Head of Corporate Finance & Strategy at Thomas Cook Group plc
On this website: click on TCG short submissions above (new feature after they updated the website some time back)
It isn't always spot on reliable though. Sometimes I think it fails when loading the updates. You can get the Excel here:
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions
Puss, you can Google LMEY. But to add to your conspiracy theories: their website is down :-)
As to balance sheets and what not of TCHI. Even if I had those, do you think it would be legal for me to post them here?
Quisty, relative shareprice in itself is never a measurement of a companies performance. Without taking into account at least outstanding shares it is completely meaningless. And anyone who was holding TUI May 2018 and still has them is not going to be happy regardless of how well managed you say it is.
Strategically I also think D4E and the deal with Fosun is "good management". I had expected a different outcome with a single party buying most of the airline and then Fosun buying Tour Ops and I still expect that same entity to eventually buy the airline within now and a couple of years. But when that was off the table this became the next best thing. Too bad for shareholders but for the company and its employees it will be just fine. In the end "good management" will pretty much always make someone unhappy.