Retail Sellers Are Missing A Trick23 Apr 2026 11:02
Suspect they'll continue to be mopped up by those 'in the know'... Acadian Asset Management for starters (no way they wouldn't have had their conversations and done their DD as to the imminent strategic review).
Cavendish Latest / 23rd April 2026 (price is seriously conservative, reckon closer to 120p-150p at actual oil prices they're realising).
"Business as usual
This morning, Afentra published its routine quarterly operations update covering the period up to the end of March. Progress looks solid, with few surprises contained in the update. From an operations point of view, gross production averaged 20kbopd (5,958bopd net), down slightly due to the arrival of the rig in preparation for the Pacassa SW well which spud recently and marked the first new drilling on the permit in over a decade.
As previously announced, Afentra has a 0.5mmbbls lifting scheduled for April (i.e. imminent), and as expected the company has been hedging to protect against the current volatility in oil pricing. A total of 98% of the lifting is hedged with put options at US$60-68/bbl, with 50% subject to call options at US$86-92/bbl, suggesting anticipated net revenue around the US$50m mark. At the end of 1Q net debt totalled US$12.6m (down from US$21.8m at year-end), with this lifting taking the company to a net cash position.
Afentra is making progress with its refinancing with a view to improving near-term liquidity and allow for an acceleration in development activities, and naturally the previously announced strategic review continues with updates to be issued when appropriate. We make no changes to our forecasts, valuation or recommendation, with our target price at 107p and a BUY recommendation.
— Production: As can be expected with the arrival of the Borr Grid drilling rig, production this quarter was down marginally (20,006bopd vs FY25 average of 21,268bopd). Now the rig is positioned, production should return to normal levels, and activities planned for the duration of the year provide us with confidence to leave our gross FY26 production forecast unchanged at 21,844bopd.
— Hedging update: We believe the key news in the announcement is the update on Afentra’s FY26 hedging position. 50% of April’s lifting is subject to US$86-92/bbl call options, with the balance to be sold at the prevailing strong oil price (save a total and immediate collapse to levels below Afentra’s put options at US$60-68/bbl). As previously announced, there are planned liftings in July, 3Q and 4Q (each 450kbbls in volume). The July and 3Q liftings are both 53% hedged with put options at US$6065/bbl and call options at US$78-79/bbl."
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