Member Info for Alfacomp

Endion, because the way that the market is configured is precisely to try and prevent us working out when the market makers are buying from PIs and when they are selling to them. Before anyone jumps in to say what about direct market access and the potential ability for one PI with DMA to sell to another with DMA I will say that this is possible but seems to so rarely happen. To carry on - the market rules are expressly set up to avoid specifying whether the Market Maker is selling shares or buying them. Thus in order to figure out whether a trade is a MM buy or a MM sell platforms such as this one use the mid-point between the advertised Bid and Ask price to distinguish what they think is a MM buy (below mid price) from MM sell (above mid price) - they even colour them differently to properly convince you that they know what they are talking about. The trouble is the don't know the nature of the trade and are simply guessing based upon the zero-th order model that they can come up with - namely using the mid-point. If you want to go to a first order model then you need to allow the real Bid and Ask to move about inside the advertised bid and ask bands, and to move the dividing line between buys and sells (the so called Market Maker Accumulation-Distribution line) around as the days games ebb and flow. This is where I start from with my trading analysis - eg here :- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/23-april-2018-trading-analysis-51 Now if you want to go further than that very simple first order model you need to start looking at trade-trade correlations - the simplest of which is of course the classic Bed + ISA combined trade, identified as I have described earlier in this thread - you can see a couple of these about 23 seconds into the video here. I identify these by hand and then change what is almost always two sells into one sell (black square) and one buy (black circle). Note this is a big change to make to a trade - it is a very non-linear process and one which no, I repeat NO, Technical analysis will ever get right. This is why I do not believe any technical analysis - it takes account of no trade-trade correlations, and therefore cannot even get a simple Bed and ISA trade right. Fine if you have 0.1% Bed and ISA's perhaps, but not in this case, where the volume is actually pretty low compared to a typical 20K Bed & ISA. This is also why I never call this analysis 'Technical Analysis' - whilst it is undoubtedly of a technical nature it should not be classed in the same category as the normal charting and line drawing fantasies.

good luck on that one knuttie - they will not sell more than 4000 shares at the moment. I forgot to mention that closing up the selling side of the shop is necessary during a tree shake to stop those that understand the company loading up

Hilarious tree-shake following the obvious Bed and ISA at 10:38. For those who may not be familiar with what happens in these situations - the Market Makers get a Bed and ISA request for 20 grands worth of shares. They do this at the ask price (the low one) so that the maximum number of shares can be transferred from a taxable account (dealing - the Bed part), to the non-taxable account (the ISA part). It's no skin off the market maker's noses to do this at the Ask price as it's pretty much the same number of shares that are transferring back and forth. How can we detect a Bed and ISA combined trade ? - look for two trades with very close monetary value, placed within 30 seconds of one another. Then look to see if they are at the ask, then convince yourself by checking that the second trade actually costs slightly more per share - this is the customer having to buy back and giving the Market Makers a bit of commission. Result - if you are a market maker looking to pickup shares that you need to fulfil previous Buy orders then you drop the Bed and ISA trade in, and drop the ask at the same time. Those of a nervous or ill-researched disposition think the sky is falling down and kerching ! you get some cheap shares. Only works if the market is not informed.

Daisan - which is the only organisation in a position to rent out Vanadium ? Let me put it another way - how much does the volatility of a commodity put off an organisation that might be wishing to finance the leasing out of said commodity ? I put it to you m'learned friends that it matters quite a lot to them as they no doubt need to borrow their money from someone else and then they have to cover the risk that they buy the commodity when prices are high and then might have to repossess and sell on the commodity at a time when prices have fallen. Their background funders will charge a higher interest rate because of this risk. Which are the only companies in the world that do not need to pay the full initial cost of Vanadium ? - Correct Vanadium primary producers, they only need to cover their production costs. Do they suffer from the high and low swings in Vanadium price - no not really they can probably ride out lows of 3-5 years - all is well and good for them if the average Vanadium price is USD 50/Kg even with big fluctuations of +/- 20 USD/Kg. Could Vametco revenues fund such a leasing program ? Well yes I see no reason why not, to be more precise the revenues from selling Vanadium to the steel boys does. They might actually not need to convince any external funding partner that it is worth taking a risk on holding large amounts of Vanadium - after all it is simply BMN changing from storing Vanadium in the ground to storing Vanadium in battery electrolyte. The great thing with storing Vanadium in electrolyte form is that you can charge (pun intended) the storage sites for the privilege. This is how Bushveld Energy will be making more money than even Bushveld Minerals in a few short years.

Coffecups - there is no requirement to show a share certificate even if you could get one out of your platform. The verification process is shown here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/shareholder-verification . It's obviously up to you if you want to get verified, but 67 others have already gone through the process so it seems to work.

I must confess that I thought the same as Sanchez - that the small amount of talk about top slicing was enough to get them to try this tactic. Perhaps discussions of this nature could be conducted more privately, and actually with some depth should people want, on TBP

Totaltrader - we only bought Vametco towards the end of Q1 2017 - the previous owners would not have exactly been that bothered about breaking sales records when they were due to sell later that quarter.

Ahhh, but they didn't have to pay that as a couple of other people were offer to sell the shares they needed at 24.1p or less.

Being bid in auction to buy - someone clearly wants to buy in.

I thought I heard Hargreave Hale - are they new ?

24.20p being paid now, and only CFEP selling at that price - then it will be 24.5p that you need to pay.

A reminder - California is estimated to require 10GW or 4 hours energy storage (that is 40GWh or 40x 6% of global V production) at the point that they hit 30% PV electrical energy production.

Did I just get the impression that BE might be renting electrolyte to VRFB manufacturers ?

this means that they will not just be making mixed acids electrolyte (i.e. UET) but also conventional (sulphuric acid only) electrolyte so guess who might become our customer

About a month ago I spent a long time trying to find the Largo Maracas Menchan (Campbell Pit) on Google Maps, don't bother it isn't there. The best we can do is Bing Maps (who knew ?) which I think shows the Campbell pit site being cleared just before plant and mine building started. https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=4a9311f5-471a-42b9-a21e-51e1b36521a6&cp=-13.684179~-40.683668&lvl=16&style=h&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027 Compare the map, when viewed from the south east, with the picture on page 13 of the Largo presentation.

That graph on page 7 is also great - I bet we could work out who is who from the production rates and figure out where BMN stands. The important thing is the slope on the right hand side - i.e. how much higher the V2O5 price has to go to yield any increase in world production. You will see of course that the current Vanadium price is a long way above the points on the graph - the points show production cost so you of course need to give people a little profit to encourage the sources to even switch on, and secondly I suspect that maybe not all these sources are currently operating, or there would be over 100,000 Tonnes of Vanadium sloshing about, which clearly there is not. You cannot switch these sources on instantaneously - it takes a good 1-2 years before some can come back online, and 4-5 years for any new sources to be developed. This gives BMN an incredible headstart in what will be a global gigabusiness.

Thanks wolfman - what I immediately found interesting was that they only sold 125 Tonnes of High Purity V2O5 in the whole of 2017. 125 Tonnes of V2O5 contains only 70 Tonnes of Vanadium - given that it takes 5,000 tonnes of Vanadium to store 1GWh in a VRFB this equates to 14 MWh of VRFB Energy Storage. I know of single VRFB batteries that have used more than that. This compares with the 1000 MWh of energy storage capacity that BMN is targeting in less than 19 months from now ( "Bushveld Minerals is targeting 1,000MWh of energy storage capacity by 2020" - 2017 Annual Report, page 19 - https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/2017-annual-report-25 ) As outlined above this 1000MWh will require 5,000 tonnes of Vanadium, by itself. That is either ALL of Vametco's production, or Mokopane will come on stream very quickly. I guess we will find out in perhaps less than an hour. Those who have not yet read the 2017 Annual Report should have a look - it is incredible reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42oZn3_rwss

Great Video gambit - it really shows how close to production we are, and exactly how Afritin can benefit from the last 25 years of developments in mining since the pit last produced any significant output. Most importantly it shows exactly how good the Uis pegmatites are.

Well indeed yes but they are on the mine site just next to the test production rig that is shown in the videos so I had assumed were part of the mine purchase.