Member Info for Alfacomp

It costs the Market makers nothing to create shares, if nobody sells their shares then the price cannot be moved down by the market makers.

It is simply a question of 1) doing dome basic research into the company and 2) having more patience that a 5 year old.

Indeed - a very simple 2-stage DMS concentration process with efficiency of >90% and which reduces the amount of material to be processed by a factor of 5. As you say all on track.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-tmt-delivers-robust-gabanintha-pre-feasibility-study.4258749/?source=email#.WzCFHSMrJjC

Production: 13,000 tpa V2O5
Life of Mine: 13 years
Capex: 284M USD
Opex: 4.27 USD/lb V2O5

In comparison Mokopane's 2016 PFS was

Production 9,525 tpa V2O5
Life of Mine: 30 Years
Capex: 298M USD
Opex: 4.97 USD/lb V2O5

The slightly lower opex for TMT is almost certainly down to the larger production rate - the flipside of this is that the mine only last 13 years and not 30 like Mokopane.

There is huge potential to increase production rates at Mokopane - as discussed before the 2016 PFS was prepared when V2O5 prices were below 4 USD/Lb - they are now selling at more than 4 times that. As a result the 2016 Mokopane PFS only considers mining the two very highest quality bands, there is about 5 times more Vanadium in other bands.

Remember that the concentrator capex was calculated at only 34.6M USD, whilst the salt roast plant would be an additional 147.8M.

If BMN wished to get started simply by building a mine (3.4M for mine + 28.3M USD shared infrastructure) and concentrator plant (34.6M) - then they could do this for a total of 66M USD.

They could do this quite simply with this years earnings from Vametco.

knuttie, pdub et al - alas we don't know the full story - there is of course the possibility that FM has told John Meyer and SP Angel to go slow on upgrades or even to delay them until there is clear positive news to hang them on - the argument being that it is better for the company to deliver consistent SP growth in line with apparent broker targets rather than exhibiting extreme divergences between broker target and SP valuation.

At the crossover between an explorer and producer evidently one goes from being valued on what one has in the ground to being valued on the money coming in the front door. Normally this process takes a good few years - in BMNs case we are in the fortunate position of having done this ultra-quickly via the acquisition of Vametco which leaves the normal City boys, let alone Google finance or Stockopedia struggling to keep up.

The purpose of the TBP analysts watch ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232 ) is not to kick-off the regular debate about whether John Meyer knows what he is talking about or not it is simply to lay out the facts on Analyst's targets and assumptions so that people can make up their own minds. Evidently people come to different conclusions about this and having stated them again here perhaps we can all move on to more interesting and ultimately conclusive discussions.

I suspect that it is more than possible that very strong positive news might come out the day after the end year accounts (same day strikes one as too contrived) thus any buying opportunity, if there is anyone foolish enough to sell at that point, may be very short lived.

gggareth,

undoubtedly MAG1, MAG2 would be almost as highly profitable to mine as MAG3 and MAG4 that were considered in the 2016 PFS. From what I can see that PFS looked at the only the highest grade bands so as to establish the lowest cost min & processing plant when V2O5 prices were less than 4 USD/lb.

V2O5 prices are now 18 USD /lb and are set to be at that level or higher for years to come - thus virtually ever single band at Mokopane could be mined and processed at a huge profit.

eg

UG-C: 0.64% V2O5 average, 36.7% magnetite => 1.74% in magnetite grade - this band is 4m thick and contains more than 200,000 tonnes of V2O5 just by itself

UMG1 0.59% V2O5 average, 32.7% magnetite => 1.80% in magnetite grade - another 150,000 Tonnes of V2O5 in this band

Even the 2m wide Parting band between the MAG3 and MAG4 layers contains 0.58% V2O5 in 29.9% magnetite => 1.9% in magnetite grade so in the current pricing environment it is worth just taking this straight out when digging MAG3 and MAG4 there's another 66,000 tonnes of V2O5 there.

See http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/bushveld_minerals/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1344&newsid=652522

SwanseaYellow - I take your general point but Aura and Largo are quite different beasts. Largo is the brand spankiest newest Vanadium mine that is currently the largest producer in the world. Aura has a field that has lowish amounts of vanadium in it, plus some amounts of Nickel, Zinc, Molybdenum and Uranium Oxide in it.

Aura were initially claiming that they would use a new and as yet commercially unproven extraction technology but I do not know if they are still continuing with that angle now that they have found a slightly better band with 0.4% grade Vanadium in it.

The BMN resources - Vametco, Brits and Mokopane all contain their V2O5 in magnetite, which is easily separated from the rest of the ore by low magnetic field separation, which is why the grades IN-MAGNETITE are quoted so extensively. At Vametco these grades average 1.96% in magnetite, at Mokopane the grades in the bands labelled MAG are:

MAG1 : V2O5 1.07% in total, Magnetite 57.1% => grade in magnetite = 1.87%
MAG2 : V2O5 0.83% in total, Magnetite 43.1% => grade in magnetite = 1.93%
MAG3 : V2O5 1.50% in total, Magnetite 65.1% => grade in magnetite = 2.30%
MAG4 : V2O5 1.46% in total, Magnetite 62.7% => grade in magnetite = 2.28%

Only the last two of these were considered being mined in the 2016 PFS. That was done based upon an expected sale price of V2O5 of USD 7.5/lb. On friday V2O5 was 2.4x this price (USD 18/lb)

People will come to Vanadium via companies like Aura and after a few months when nothing has happened they will realise that they should instead be in Bushveld MInerals

Tyfoon I have had to disable registration login and forum features whilst I wait for new modules that better fulfil gdpr requirements

Endion, I don't know how they have valued their deposit, but if it is simply multiplying the amount of Vanadium in the ground times 70,000 USD/Tonne then if you do the same calculation for BMN you get numbers that are significantly higher:

The simplest calculation

Vametco 138 MT ore at avg grade 0.62% = 862,000 Tonnes Vanadium
Mokopane 297.2 MT at 0.68% avg grade = 2,028,000 Tonnes Vanadium
Brits - say it is half of Vametco = 400,000 Tonnes Vanadium

This makes 3,290,000 Tonnes of contained Vanadium. At 70,000 USD/ Tonne V you get 230 Billion US Dollars - which is 13 times the value that Aura quoted for their resource.

However this does not take into the % ownership at Vametco (59%), Mokopane (64%) and Brits (I am guessing 70%).

If you put these factors in you get 2,087,000 Tonnes of contained Vanadium, which naively is 146.1 Billion USD at 70K USD/T

MTB - thanks https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232 is now completely up to date

By the way has anyone got a web reference to the 27th April SP Angel target update to 25p - for completeness I would like to add this to the analysts targets page on TBP

knuttie - I strongly suspect that they cannot say anything more positive until BMN gives the say so.

Fortunately the LSE team are not responsible for updating the Vanadium prices, which are now on the their next move up - some reports are that 18 USD/lb for V2O5 has already been breached.

If this is true then it is outstanding as this is what hallgarten predicted for the end of 2020 !

I have updated the graph here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/analyst-watch to show the V2O5 prices superimposed on the FeV ones - the FeV (in USD/Kg V) is on the left axis, the V2O5 (in USD/lb of V2O5) is on the right axis.

As you can see it seems that the normal assumption that the V2O5 price is 1/5th of the FeV ones seems to be breaking down a little now - perhaps V2O5 is now in shorter supply as demand for VRFBs (which will want to take V2O5 only) starts to take off.

I raise this point not to restart the perennial debate about when will SP Angel (or indeed ARC for that matter) raise their targets for BMN - I suspect that they are holding fire until H1 production news and/or other news comes out. Which could be very soon now.

well at least they can afford someone to try and design the pages. Evidently ADVFN cannot even afford that.

Stingstim,

the largest train on hill project stores 12.5 MWh - that is 1/64th of the size of the Dalian 800MWh VRFB - are you going to need 64 hills to get the same amount of energy storage ?

It's a no from me. Nice idea but the numbers don't stack up, oh and the response time gets longer the more energy you try and store, because guess what, the mass of the train has to increase. More gravitational energy but takes longer to turn it around. I suspect though that you will find that a more than insignificant part of the train is a batteries designed to try and cover over this basic physics principle.

apparently hit 18 USD/Lb !

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3815801/Vanadium/BATTERY-RAW-MATERIALS-MARKET-REPORT-2206-Slow-trade-sees-lithium-hydroxide-prices-track-carbonate.html

This is quite a jump from last week so it would be worth checking that FeV has done the same.

here's another one which doesn't seem to have been viewed much yet:-

https://www.skypixel.com/videos/look-at-this-amazing-piece-i-shot-with-my-dji-equipment-c6615e6f-0254-4900-89f5-a1966bc256d9

When I say 862,000 tonnes at Vametco that is the amount of contained Vanadium.

The (JORC) ore resource is of course around 138.6 Million Tonnes at 0.62% average grade (up to 1.96% in magnetite grade in some seams).

kevkan - I thought that I had previously updated the warrants page to reflect the exercising of half of Wogens allocation. It seems that the update was not complete, I think perhaps because I had a power cut whilst I was in the middle of updating the page. I have finished the update - there's a little over 19 million warrants left outstanding.

I agree with Pdub - whilst we have iron ore, some 19 Billion Dollars of it, this is small change compared to the 140 Billion Dollars of Vanadium that exists just at Mokopane.

This of course is on top of the 862,000 tonnes of Vanadium ore resource at Vametco, plus perhaps half again at Brits.