Member Info for Alfacomp

I agree with PennyPusher, there is no point in paying for RNS's to have a blow by blow account of who said what to whom and why. Unless of course you wish to encourage volatility in the share price so that you can trade it.

Endion - it is highly unlikely to do with the community. Employees do not undertake unprotected industrial action in support of legal claims made by the wider community.

Does anyone wish to lay claim to any of these ?

Now that the last block of 2.4p has apparently lapsed it should be under 10M now.

For those students of the warrants (better sign up quick as they may all be gone very soon) - you can bookmark the link as it will always point the latest warrants info TBP has.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/warrants

Just having an excess of Buys over sells does not imply that there are hidden sells yet to be revealed. If you also see price movement in Bid/Ask as we did at 8:03 this morning then that does imply stuff going on behind the scenes which is precisely why I stated that I expected to see a 200K sell at that time.

That was precisely what was reported an hour later. I see no other evidence in the traces that would support any other hidden sells this morning - hence I expect this surfeit of Buys to remain until the end of the day, at which point the we'll then get another block of warrants pre-sells being delivered to the market makers.

Further update published, now 600K more Buys than Sells. If they really have these shares, as opposed to simply borrowing them from their future selves, then the likelihood must be that they are coming from warrant pre-sales.

Daisan it does not imply anything of the sort. There is no rule that requires intra-day nett balancing of MM books. In fact there is no rule that implies end of day, or even multi-day MM book balancing.

The only rule is that Market Makers need to make profit, and they can do this simply by selling shares at high prices and then buying them back at lower ones. They are in an acquisitive phase at present because previously they have racked up surfeits of Buys. Alas walking the price down is not working for them as they simply increase the deficit that they have to meet.

updated, now 500K more Buys than Sells even taking into account hidden sells from early on that have just been revealed.

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-today

can be bookmarked as I will update the link every time I run a daily trading watch - keep checking back there as I will not clog up here or Twitter with notifications of updates.

Yep I make it over 100K more Buys than Sells now, yet apparently down by 4% - if we don't see that someone has chucked in something like 200K as a cheap sell around 8:03am this morning then someone else is getting their shares taken away from them cheaply, possibly warrant holders who at the end of the the day will be told 'sorry mate we could only get X for those warrants you wanted us to pre-sell, but don't worry cos you already made loads of profit on them'.

knows there's bargains to be had today.

Fundamentals have not changed but those who have only discovered that the company has employees have.

Smishman - nows the time to get some of your city mates to buy I think

to show analysis for all of Friday

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-7th-sept-2018

jamiejojo - that might sound like a nice fillip for the share price but do we really think that the share price responds to positive news in the way that it apparently can be made to respond to apparently negative news.

The evidence is quite clearly that it does not. Negative news is seized upon by the market makers to drive the price down on minimal selling volumes. Twice in two weeks we have seen the price driven down by more than 15% in less than a quarter of an hour on the basis of marginal negative news. Has anyone here ever seen this SP go up by the same amount in the same period time. I have not.

The only people who benefit from this are market makers who can fill their pockets with cheap shares nicked from anyone who foolishly may have set a stop loss order, or goalhanging day traders who sit around waiting for 10% drops to make easy profits on the recovery buying.

I don't want the company to pay for RNS's to give us daily updates on what is going on - that would only drag the whole episode out and strengthen the hand of those who think that they might be able to gain unreasonable advantage over the company as part of a negotiating strategy. What I do expect them to do is remain silent and get on with the process of negotiating an agreement that works long term. Then I expect to be informed about the agreement and then I expect both sides to get back to work to make it all work long term.

5c) That BMN may not be able to deal with Vametco, either on a technical or a personnel level. The successfully completed expansion phases I and II ( https://www.miningreview.com/bushveld-minerals-2nd-phase-vametco-expansion/ ) suggest that the first is not the issue. Personnel issues are always harder to judge as they may revolve around long-held grievances or feelings of being undervalued, which may not present themselves immediately, or whilst profitability is questionable. The fact that these issues are presenting themselves now suggests, as we have known for many months, that there is absolutely no doubt about the profitability of Vametco. The only people who do not yet know about the profitability of Vametco are those that can look no further than the tables of published EPS on stockopedia or in the FT.

When you see this catalogue of risks - all of which have been either completely or substantially reduced since 2015 and put things in context you can see just in comparison just how soluble the current industrial action is.

A fair and frank negotiation, which bakes in long term performance of the staff and company is the next critical step in establishing Vametco and Bushveld Minerals/Energy as the cornerstone of a potentially huge South African energy storage sector.

4) That Vanadium Flow Batteries may somehow end up being the betamax to Lithium-ion's VHS (i.e. a technically superior product, but failing financially). Betamax failed because the electronics may have been better but it was a technically inferior system - i.e. the supply of quality content let them down. Vanadium Flow batteries are not only superior on the basic technology (100% depth of discharge, ability to scale storage capacity at sublinear cost, no having to monitor degradation state of every single cell) but also from the point of view of the system (20 year lifespan, zero risk of fire, electrolyte that can be leased instead of bought and discarded).

This is precisely why the Chinese government is quite so ready to nail its colours to the VRFB mast ( https://www.energy-storage.news/news/chinese-governments-strategic-push-for-energy-storage-to-yield-large-flow-b ). The reason that the US hasn't yet is simply because it has no Vanadium mines on its land and therefore has one or two academics running around saying the material is scarce (it isn't there is more vanadium in the crust than Nickel, Chrome, Zinc or Copper and a LOT more than Lithium or Cobalt - https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-4t )

5a) That BMN may not be able to deal with building the strategic relationships that would be needed to establish itself as a global player in Energy Storage - for those who have read the multiple Vanitec updates on TBP they may have got a flavour of how Mikhail and Fortune have been central in establishing communication across the VRFB sector and have overseen Vanitec putting in place industry-wide PR on behalf of VRFB energy storage. Mikhail has also founded and is chairman of the South African Energy Storage association.

5b) That BMN may not be able to deal with Mokopane, Brits, Imaloto, and it's Tin resources and would be spread too thinly:

The last of these was of course spun-off under the Afritin banner and Anthony continues to work on bringing those assets into production later this year.

Work on the Imaloto project overseen by Prince Nyati at our subsidiary, Lemur, and with our project partners SinoHydro - and a 30-year project concession has been signed with Madagascan government. The generating capacity has been increased from 10-25MW which would result in an increase in energy capacity for the country of 15%

Technical work at Brits has continued and we are close to defining the resource there and learning how it will be used to increase production, presumably at Vametco.

Mokopane - we continue to wait patiently for the mining right to be granted - seemingly delayed because of governance issues at the local Limpopo Department of Mineral Resources office ( http://www.miningweekly.com/article/dmr-limpopo-office-reopened-following-two-month-closure-2018-09-06/rep_id:3650 ) - another example of where the Ramaphosa government is getting to grips with problems that Zuma had fostered.

To give a little context to BMN's purchase of Vametco for the incredibly cheap price of $17M:-

Vametco was the very last asset that Evraz sold in South Africa - they made a real hash of industrial relations with Evraz Highveld Steel with strikes there in 2012 and 2013, and when the SA government refused (in my view justifiably) to bail out Highveld Steel in 2015 decided to pull out of the country completely.

Any great financial opportunity comes with risk.

The risks for BMN/Vametco in 2015 were

1) Vanadium prices were at 13 USD/KgV (for FeV) - the lowest point in 10 years. The risk was that they would not recover soon. This risk is not only eliminated but Vanadium prices have risen over 500% since that point to reach their HIGHEST point in 10 years. Vanadium prices are as NickD says regularly, and justifiably, in dreamland. And that is BEFORE new chinese rebar regulations even come into force.

2) That the corrupt and divisive rule of Jacob Zuma would continue, making irresponsible decisions on behalf of Eskom and SA energy and industrial strategy. This risk has been completely removed and a much more rational and business friendly president is firmly in control of the reigns of power, as well as the sometimes unpredictable ANC. The signing off of the 27 delayed REIPP projects and the recent draft IRP which mandated 250% increases in PV and wind power whilst overseeing a 1/6th reduction in coal generation is testament to this new rationality ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/draft-irp-2018-introduction-reaction-289 )

3) That energy storage for whatever reason might not become the important complement to Renewable Energy that many technical people were predicting. The reality is that now that new PV and wind power can generate electrical energy at a lower cost than running old coal plants this has driven the establishment of a genuine utility scale energy storage industry. Between 2016 and 2017 battery storage grew by 46% ( https://www.edf.org/energy/energy-storage ) but furthermore is expected to grow by another factor of 9 before 2022.

continues ...

YTSS - my view is similar to Sanchez's, namely that this kind of action can happen anywhere in the world and having it come to a head now, before results are published, is no bad thing. Whilst we should be careful what we wish for - I see this as an opportunity for Fortune to be able to demonstrate concretely his commitment to building a forward looking company which will hopefully be held up as a model in a sunrise mining industry.

Whilst the following remain banned:-

nvhltd
lemaillotjaune
maillotjaune
MauriceGarin

We must be wary of the person behind those nicnames coming back to try the same old same old lines.

Alas that article is wrong - as far as we know that proposal is not for a vanadium battery