RE: How Low25 May 2019 22:08
Raxfactor - if one could predict the SP at which 1) massive buying kicks in, or 2) the date on which shorters run out of people to lend them shares, or 3) the point at which a share overhang that is being worked runs out, then it would be a very simply thing just to wait for that point to buy.
It is not a simple thing to work out as 1) depends on the manor other external factors such as what the company news is, what the publicity is like etc 2) it is hard enough estimating which sells are those from shorters, though at least that information is in the publication domain, where they are getting the shares from may be pure supposition and 3) is similar to 2) - you can take a reasonable guess at which sells are those chucked in from a tame seller but unless you know who is selling and what their pot was at the start it is impossible to know. Having said that it was possible to estimate with a fair degree of certainty when the Erongo share overhang would end as described here:-
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/the-end-of-erongo-260
The important thing that all AIM investors should remember is that whilst the overhang is being worked the company can be making stellar progress but this is not reflected in the share price because the MMs are working the sell by selling short at the start then walking it down so they can make the maximum gain for themselves. This is shown nicely in this video:-
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/bushveld-minerals-in-a-minute-50
When the overhang ends then the rerate begins. The shorters are currently hoping that they can get out before that happens here, however they may be caught out by news that may come that affects point 1) above.