Member Info for Alfacomp

Bushveld will do for VRFB's in stationary energy storage what Tesla did for EVs

Stationary Energy Storage is expected to be an almost $100 billion sized market ( https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b1198ada2772c6585959926/t/5c9cd83ff9619a021c2de4c4/1553782876741/CellCube+Investor+Presentation+-+2019+March+26+%281%29.pdf - see slide 7 )

Miton sold about 10M between dec 2019 and feb 2020. They have been at 3.5% since then apparently so any further selling would lead to a TR1 quite quickly

I'm actually very happy with what Libero discovered last night. However it simply reinforces what everyone who has been here for more than a year already knows - that the Eskom BESS of 800MWh is now in play and it is going to need 4,000 tonnes of homegrown Vanadium to meet all those VRFB requirements.

You can see it all here: https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-is-coming-336 , here https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339 and here https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-has-now-arrived-355

another 250K reversed trade for you at 8:32 this morning, pondering

Libero,

whilst it would be nice to feel that the market would respond to the obvious news that after much foot dragging Eskom have at last come through with their BESS tenders and that BMN is clearly head of the queue in responding to these I think that it is more likely that the MMs will fear much more the strong possibility of a JSE listing later this year. This will release a pent-up wave of buying from South African investors who have previously been unable to or hampered in their ability to buy shares but who understand better than anyone the importance of mining and energystorage and would jump at the chance to buy into a South-African business that will be helping to fix Eskom's broken grid as well as building a multi-billion dollar business that sells energy storage across the entire world.

if you're on twitter could you contact me @bmnperspective

... or both

Libero - given the fact that we have been told that the reduction in Golden Summit holding is not a sell but rather a transfer to a different account under the same beneficial owner and the fact that these 'sells' suddenly appear at times designed to knock back positive buying momentum, we have to consider the possibility that they are not genuine sells but Market Maker naked short positions - i.e. IOMe's printed purely to try and keep the SP constrained.

This would also tie in with John Meyer's observation that the Market Makers were perhaps hoping that the Enerox deal would need to be finalised with some sort of placing that they could snap up at a discount. Well Fortune has well and truly outflanked that idea, and now we see Eskom tenders being printed and BMN's VRFB partner companies no doubt chomping at the bit.

I'm sorry but anybody who thinks that it is good practise to publicise the fact that you've tendered for a government contract has clearly never done it. It would be viewed as trying to influence the tender selection process and in some competitions would result in expulsion from the process.

One of the interesting things about this consultation project is

"The Consultant will carry out the aforementioned services for a continuous period of 24 Months accommodating the DS&I defect liability period."

Thus if they are expecting a 9-12 month build time then that may mean that the Phase 1 BESS tenders are drip fed in over the next 12 months. This would give BMN/BE the opportunity to bid on all of them, sequentially, and would allow BMN to stockpile the c. 4,000 tonnes of Vanadium that we would need to be able to provide c. 800MWh+ of VRFB energy storage.

This all looks very nicely choreographed if you ask me. Not perhaps if you were a South African looking to get in cheaply on the JSE joint-listing but hey ho, the UK LTH's have demonstrated great patience and deserve to have their time in the sun first.

As far as I can see the tenders for Packages 2 and 3 of the Eskom BESS Phase 1 are not yet published. The same names are cropping up as were originally outlined in the Afdb document here ( https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Environmental-and-Social-Assessments/South_Africa_-_Eskom_Distributed_Battery_Storage_Program_%E2%80%93_ESMF_Summary.pdf ) originally referenced in BBN's article here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339

Dav3J - I think you need to start working on the assumption that Fortune knows exactly what he is doing

You're right Dav3J it is not just Gambit who thinks it - I do to

To follow up on your calculations wrt to the 18650 batteries - these are 3.65 Volts so contain 262.8MJ of electrical energy.

That article suggests that the amount of thermal energy that could be generated in a conflagration could be 10 times higher - this is truly terrifying, especially when you realise that we're not simply talking about something burning, where you can stop the fire by simply excluding the oxygen.

dubmaskullanga - you have made a very good point - the electrical energy stored in those Lithium-ion batteries is only a low-side estimate of the total energy that could be released in the event of a conflagration. Worse still it is not just heat and light that would be generated, which albeit bad, is a walk in the park compared with the danger caused by organophosphate nerve agents( https://www.livescience.com/58593-facts-about-sarin.html ) or HF gas. It is no overstatement to say that a large lithium-ion battery fire in the centre of a densely populated city could kill thousands.

That is why I reiterated point 3 earlier on - the Dalian 800MWh VRFB is located right in the middle of a city of 8 million people. That would be unthinkable with Lithium-ion.

Halespur there is nothing rampy or derampy about plain hard facts

1. 2,750 Tonnes of Ammonium Nitrate produces 3,850,000 Megajoules of energy when it explodes

2. 800MWh of electrical energy is equivalent to 2,880,000 Megajoules of energy

3. The Dalian 800MWh VRFB flow battery is located in the middle of Dalian City.

we need some kind of flag for jokes - how about the 'strong sell' one ?

knutsford - that's the right conclusion but saying that it contains 0 Megajoules of stored energy is perhaps not giving the right message

Gambti - it's not just the sarin-like organophospates that are created in Lithium-ion battery fires it is also the Hydrogen Fluoride which is potentially more harmful as it will eat through most protective equipment.

bassguy - you're missing my point - I'm pointing out that many Lithium-ion batteries have energy densities that are a significant (over 50%) of that of the ammonium nitrate that blew up in Lebanon, destroying much of the city and killing hundreds.

Halespur - out of curiosity I just had a look at the relative energy density of Ammonium-Nitrate and Lithium-ion battery

Lithium Ion Battery = 0.36 - 0.875 Megajoules per Kg ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery )

Ammonium Nitrate = 1.4 Megajoules per Kg ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density_Extended_Reference_Table )

NOW will people take the safety risks of large scale Lithium-ion installations seriously ?