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The best stocks go unnoticed
We should see another leg up in a few days with ex-dix day behind us.
Jedclampit you are halfway through with your reasoning on entry price. According to Warren Buffet the market should undervalue the stock by 50% to give you a margin of safety.
I will never understand shorters. Why would you short when the market as a general upward trend? Is like choosing to swim against the tide.
Not disappointed either, need more time to see through the potential of this little player.
International Paper is back to where it was at the time it made an offer to SMDS. Does anyone know when the deal will be confirmed?
Jed I wouldn't be in any rush to buy tbh. 120s are almost a certainty at this point...
Steve, the strategy will not make you as much as you may think.
To double your money need to buy and sell your FULL holding 4 times, each time buying back in at a 20% discount. Assume you have a stock that volatile you have to time it well to achieve such a feat.
If instead of buying and selling your full holding you top slice 50% of your holding and repeat in cycles it will take you 6-7 trades to double your money.
You must be able to time a very volatile stock multiple time without any setback. How many times we top slice too early and we are not able to back in cheap? How many times have we bought too early?
Mary your calculation is misleading. Top slicing doesn't average down.
Let's assume that after selling @170p and 'averaging down to 30p' the share price price actually crashes down to 30p. You would expect to have made a profit on the first sale and no loss on the second sale, hence making a net profit. In reality you would have made no profits at all. Your cash flow would be:
-£10,000 from your initial purchase
+£8,500 from your first sale (5,000 x 170p)
+ £1,500 from your second sale (5,000 x 30p)
Adding up all figures your will end up with no net profits, you started from £10,000 and ended with £10,000.
You can argue that if after the first sale @170p the share price falls less dramatically, to 60p. Would that make you a 2x bagger in any way? This is your cash flow again:
-£10,000 from your initial purchase
+£8,500 from your first sale (5,000 x 170p)
+ £3,000 from your second sale (5,000 x 60p)
This time adding up all figures your profit is £1,500 of hard money in your pocket. 15% of your initial sum.
The only way you can average down is by selling high and buying back in low. By doing so your average would not go down as dramatically as you would expect though. Making an X bagger on a share that actually doesn't rise manifold, but simply traded in and out is a mammoth task that hardly makes you a multi bagger.
@Mary
if you buy 10000 @ £1, sell 5000 @ 170p and you do not buy any more shares, your average would still be £1 per share. You would have an average of 74p if you use the full £8500 from the sale of your 5000 shares @ 170p to buy back in at £1 (if the shares drop that much after you sell!). I may be missing how the 30p figure is calculated.
Steve I wasn't right, you were not wrong. I believe it is not the short term price action to hold the answer. As far as I can tell the share price could be 100p or 200p tomorrow. It is matter of interpretation of the financial statement and confidence in the long term outlook for the company. OTB can still be a winner if it takes advantage of the current market and can get the upper hand over competitors. Hopefully we will both right when OTB can give solid figures over a number of terms.
@Mary how can your average be 40p considering the share price has never been close to that figure? I assume you bought in the low and sold in the high, virtually created your average by dividing your initial invested sum by the number of shares finally held. How many trades did you make to achieve 40p, can you give me an example of your strategy using OTB as an investment case? 40 p is very low considering the recent trading range (my calculation is between 120 and 145), it would take 5 trades with a 20% profit for each trade to get down to 40p, in a relative short period of time. I don't know many people that can make 20% profit per year let alone repeatedly in just few months. If you can replicate the same strategy with 5 holdings you can make one million starting from a mere £5000!
Onsolidground market manipulation is illegal.
I am interested in investing, I was hoping for better figures today. I am stunned people are so positive on the mediocre HY results (mediocre relative to the current valuation). I am surprised the price soared 15% yesterday also!
KittyKitty do you know better? you mentioned interest rates, I am adding the drop will be negligible.
KittyKitty - Interest rates won't drop significantly, 50bp at most in 2024. We wont be below 4% in less than 1.5 years and probably stay above 3% for a long time.
Mary, unfortunately brokers seem to be clueless most of the time. I can name countless shares of companies having broker ratings all over the shop. DB is no exception.
JMU I am not negative, I like OTB but I also look at the numbers. Look at statutory figures (at the bottom of the RNS doc) and tell me how impressed you are. Due to seasonality a large part of the earnings will be realized in H2. Administrative expenses need to come under control. Competition in the travel industry can be fierce. It is premature to be greedy.
Funny how, again, a line is given for gross profits before and after marketing... usual embellishment of figures!
Jed I agree, I would not be surprised to see it back to 1320-130p but I don't have a crystal ball, the earnings are erratic and investors will be cautious, that's the downward force. The earnings are not stellar to justify a much higher valuation, I invite people egging on 200-250p to give a rationale.
Jed I agree, I would not be surprised to see it back to