Member Info for Albinio74

these twitter posts are not much help IMO to gain real insight, no idea on the footage dates but the pictures have lots of differences in them, the red cannisters, cars and items next to the yellow cabin, probably a few others easily visible if you scrutinize the pics but they could be a day apart, hours apart etc.

All still relevant HunSen - the AI opportunity is substantial, but the timescales for that, US Efmody approval and Ditest progress is probably why there is not much PI attention around Diurnal at the moment, the big ticket news has gone for many I guess (FDA Alkindi last year and recent Euro Chronocort/Efmody approval) - so maybe lacking some snap, crackle and pop.

However I still think with some positive news around progress for AI studies/regulatory processes, some ditest updates, clearer info on China progress and general sales traction for the existing approved treatments there is still some steady near term upside possible here and the downside should be well underpinned going forward (i.e. heavily derisked and still offering some near term potential with some medium term blockbuster gains possible with the right progress)

Vendors will offer it as lower cost, offers punters and vendors slick and quick (qr scan, finger print / face scan, done) option, better basket to checkout completion for vendors, convenient for the customer, plus potential carrot for some of bitcoin rewards.

While suggesting there is no room for innovation and new players in this space, you have named the best known payment disruptor of recent times alongside a legacy player, you know - why PayPal over Visa? Yet here we are.

Exploration - I believe this paste and copy info has been shared before (one of several places this info exists - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325021757_The_history_of_hydrocarbon_exploration_and_development_in_North_Yorkshire )

As yet I don't believe anyone has shown this relates specifically to West Newton on the data presented so far.

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/detailedIndex.cfm?cfgridkey=441614

On this link the exclusivity section is blank so perhaps that is pending but perhaps a formality now approved?

The info from the time suggests orphan status was in play - wonder if the wording is confusing "following Orphan Status approval" i.e. now that it is in place, a $2.5 payment will be due on first sales - or is there a separate process post FDA approval?

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/27/2007542/0/en/Eton-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-Acquisition-of-U-S-Marketing-Rights-to-Pediatric-Orphan-Drug-Alkindi-Sprinkle.html

"The FDA has granted Alkindi Sprinkle Orphan Drug Designation and as a result, the product is expected to receive seven years of Orphan Drug Exclusivity after approval. In addition, Diurnal has been issued three formulation and method of use patents in the United States which extend out as far as 2034. All three patents are expected to be Orange Book listed after the product’s approval. The safety and efficacy of the product is supported by six clinical, bioequivalence, and safety studies conducted by Diurnal prior to the submission of the product’s NDA."

As a heavily II backed £100m mcap company I think it should hold well but may mean upward moves are also pretty steady.

The SP has actually grown very strongly over the last year or so, I think it just lacks a bit of near term sparkle to crack on - not sure a paid for presentation via sharesoc helps get lots of PIs onboard though.

I am happy to keep building a position anywhere under a quid without bad news, many got in following the Eton deal last year for the Alkindi FDA approval and then hung on for Efmody Euro news, for some maybe hard to see the next big near term catalyst (not entirely sure myself). P3 for USA Efmody to restart later this year, 2023 likely best commercial hope if all goes to plan, so really we are looking for commercial traction with Alkindi, indications of initial early sales interest for Efmody in Europe (maybe later this year) , would be good to see some news on Ditest as the potential there may draw some wider interest - Japan and UK news/deals maybe not far away, milestone payment confirmations - Then I guess it is other tie ups around the world that may become apparent.

Anyone got a view on the nearest big news they hope for?

I have posted this before but my take is

A) West Newton is not in the bag yet - a decent hedge into another project made easy around interest in WN (easy and cheap).

B) if WN comes in on plan with the hype, these shares are more or less irrelevant if this company ends up being worth hundreds of millions or more.

C) If they wait until WN testing is done, let's say it is a great success, fingers crossed emoji, what is the near term incentive for Corallian holders after a massive rise with great results and possible verifiable interest from bigger players, here have these shares with all near term value priced in, they may as well take the ride with Victory.

Or they are all bent and it is all just a gravy train scam, in which case what on earth would any of the regular detractors be doing investing here - that is a bigger mystery to me.

I would ask the bears to explain the ulterior motive they would have for undermining RBD sp, considering S&S personal and family direct interest.

Assuming they are using Calvine over Hardman as not seen any recent "notes" from them.

Very detailed round up though, covering likely steps ahead, opportunities and risks, as well as helping unpack the potential upside significance of recent newsflow.

I had probably not realised the lengthy timescale to reinstate phase 3 for the USA (through to potential FDA approval maybe 2023), but chances of success sound promising, especially if SPA confirmed. Also interesting why the US market is so important (not just because it is a big country/market).

However if they are successful in maximising Efmody sales into all potential markets/treatment scenarios there really is quite substantial revenue on offer (AI a key area).

Thanks HunSen, really appreciate that, lots of info from you. I will look out for the presentation once released looks like plenty in there.

I think takeover is the intended conclusion for DNL, hopefully with mature Alkindi sales, Efmody/Chronocort well established and Ditest further progressed as a minimum but you never know exactly how these things may play out.

If they take on a large partner for Ditest development that would probably indicate the most likely suitor further down the track.

Anything interesting? Tried to register but seems to take a few days for them to confirm (sharesoc).

https://ir.etonpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eton-pharmaceuticals-reports-record-revenue-and-earnings/

Often think these tr1 RNS releases are needlessly confusing but yes IP Group already a substantial Diurnal supporter

https://www.ipgroupplc.com/our-portfolio/portfolio/diurnal-ltd

"why not wait to do this until the well test, or after, and issue potentially materially fewer shares?"

Because RBD wanted more exposure to Corallian

An offer they may consider good value to RBD now is easier to get away with the carrot of upside against West Newton testing, if RBD shares shoot up during/after, the deal becomes less attractive without any near term upside, so in real terms they end up paying a higher price although with potentially less shares, but ultimately a more drawn out process with less Corallian in the end for RBD potentially.

Also West Newton may not go as well as hoped, so a share offer no good at all in those circumstances so may be a little hedging going on.

Eton update soon - 13th May

https://ir.etonpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eton-pharmaceuticals-report-first-quarter-2021-financial-results/

I think the China tie up went under the radar a bit.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DNL/china-licencing-agreement-with-citrine-for-alkindi-qr9y06pqxl1wprh.html

I think news there could also be significant for the SP, although I do concede I am very fuzzy on likely progression re regulatory processes / timescales for this and whether existing data/trials can be used in their regulatory system.

But if Alkindi does achieve approval and sale in China then you would have to think that also bodes well for Chronocort.

China's vast population and increased focus on medical provision would present a substantial commercial opportunity for Diurnal.

If you look at many of the people he follows and interacts with they are all very active on social media talking about varying investments so IMO it just helps draw attention DVRG which does no harm really.

Not sure he ramps that much, DVRG as an investment proposition is quite complex for many PIs with newsflow moving between many projects that have different regional, scientific and commercial aspects to consider, so i think many are grateful of that extra level of interaction to help understand and not overlook certain projects - many invest in resources and it is just a case is there gold there or a single hit drug/tech play.

Unsure what you mean by not serving him well, some felt the initial reveal for Microtox BS was not as well received as many had hoped, maybe partly following social media posts but overall the modern water and Integumen transitions been pretty good so far I would say, with that approach very much in play.

Likely Microsaic will follow a similar path - i used to have shares there and investors really needed the company to up their game with complimentary/supplementary interaction around official announcements, their RNS only approach certainly did not help the SP performance.

The "Dynamic Duo" currently have over 35m shares between them I believe - getting the SP to 5p would be valued at about £1.7/8 m, 10p around £3.5m etc, I believe they also have family members invested, but sure they would happily hold things up for salary and benefits, excluding of course the reliable backing from IIs they have enjoyed that don't mind at all what happens.

Really pleasing end to the week, nearly missed it, bizarrely scrolling Twitter and noticed DNL tweet, they almost never post.

And there is still plenty of possible news to come in the months ahead on Ditest progression, follow up news on China, maybe Japan and always room for new deals/sales channels and updates.

Thanks for posting the Calvine link Hunsen.

https://www.shalexp.com/reabold-california-llc

Link for general overview for anyone interested - as per Jiff - paid for access required for more details.