Member Info for Albatross747

Cowboi what discount rates are you referring to?

Yes not valid for Kodal to declare but we were discussing the economics of a Hainan buyout and they don’t care about JORC. They’ve decided what the resource is. It wouldn’t shock me if JORC came in a lower and Hainan said nah that’s wrong

He absolutely is not he stated that what Hainan said is what he believes will happen. Hardly dismissong

Since we’re discussing the value to hainan it’s very reasonable to use their assumptions.

47.37Mt at 1.14% according to Hainan. So 540,018t of Li2O. Let’s say a recovery rate of 50%, above what we might be getting now but pessimistic long term 270,009t, using 5.2% spod that translates to about 5.2Mt of spod. Price it at 1900 dollars which based on forecasts is pretty conservative and you get about $10bn

Upgraded resource revenue will be around $10bn. They’d be spending 200m to get a few billion worth of future revenue.

Cowboi that’s a weird way of looking at it. Hainan would be paying for control just to get Kodal out of the way of their operations and they are making money down the line so they’re reducing risk of sky high lithium prices draining money to Kodal in the future. Plus their internal economics will be looking at the upgraded resource they wouldn’t end up losing money anyway.

Cowboi in the AGM he says funded by cash, debt and stage 2 offtake payment and said they wish to maintain their position ie not massive dilution

Sam Yeh I suspect the legacy providers have better trading desks do a lot of OTC trades to settle positions. But Hargreaves will not quote you if it starts moving quickly that’s the issue and they’ll just ignore your limit orders too.

Price you get varies quite a lot with a share like Kodal as only MMs have direct market access most of the time so you rely on what price a broker is willing to give you or you have to pay the market spread. I don’t know how T212 operates but that could explain the delay

Anyone fancy running the numbers properly? AI telling me that if you correct for stake ownerships and production amounts Kodal trades at roughly a 1/5 of the group average. That’s a hell of a discount even with Mali risk premium. But obviously can’t be confident AI not been silly.

The Aussie exchange RNS

https://www.nsx.com.au/marketdata/company-directory/announcements/PYX/

Varies wildly depending on the content of the accounts. Clean going concern got to open up 3x, licence and RKAB and royalties sorted as well could be on its way to 10x. Forward looking statements in the accounts probably going to be a big deal as it’s probably not all going to be resolved so might land in a grey area but if they’re saying looking to get back to mining this year that would signal a solid rerate.

Also since the float is so thin and the MC tiny we could see a big overshoot on good news.

Bear view is that they might not have much to say just that everything is still ongoing. But even then I can’t see it going lower as it was priced to collapse

They said 3-4 weeks on the 12th so next week maybe

No cowboi pretty sure they’d have to be saying they expect Kodal PLC to receive 60m to say they’re trading at 1x FCF. But even with 250m at mine level and the aisc they stated I get fifty something million and that’s a pretty optimistic take.

Just looked at the AGM they claimed they’re trading at 1X FCF for 2026 in the presentation. Really curious how they’ve got that number

Also potentially the Mali gold licenses renewal

Stage 2 FID, MRE update, stage 2 off take agreement all could happen this year. I believe we’ll also acquire a new site.

I can’t see anything that confirms this in that mining code document.

What article are you looking at in that document cowboi?