Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Stebo - You've confused Aus Dollar for US Dollar, we'd need around $200 (Aus) for the 5% ($1200 for 30%) to reach a Mcap of circa £631m
Your point stands though, Just wanted to point out that error. I've seen a lot of people doing the same thing.
Hi Notrader,
Because brokers TP accounts for predicted rise following imminent news (MRE2 & FMV)
Current SP only makes sense against current resources outlined within PFS, wont be at these levels for long,
True about retaining 30% on the event of a no deal, I'd not looked at it that way before, I dare say market would react negatively though, due to promise of imminent revenue being dashed, long term would probably be a good thing though
Hi Trippy,
To be clear, by 'walk away' I mean, retract their option of purchasing the addition 5% at FMV,
If they're not happy with our number, and arbitration rules in our favour, they can walk away rather than pay it, but we can't if it goes the other way
I just assumed brokers predictions reflect market expectations, & assumed that would be considered along with the technical factors?
I agree that NCM would be devaluing their 70(5)% of Hav with a low offer, I think it's a good point worth considering.
Zoros, I know the decision would be carried out by an independent valuer as detailed in the JV Agreement, that's not what I asked,
I asked if current broker predictions would be taken into account within the arbitration process,
The reason I ask is that I'm worried that if NCM try to screw us, the first we'd know about it would be an RNS stating agreement within 10% of each other has not been met, at that point my options would either be to sell up and take my loss, or to wait helplessly for arbitration to decide who wins, but even if we do win then NCM can walk away, and we can't, so I asked if broker prediction would be taken into account so that i could have some confidence that NCM would be unlikely to win arbitration if their valuation was significantly below the $250m average prediction.
I dont know why it's offensive for me to state I'd be happy with 20p SP following agreement of FMV? that's basically saying I'd be happy if the SP was up 50% within the next 4 weeks.
I also think $250 is a good value for resource as currently understood, that's not to say I think that's the ultimate value of the resource once proved out further.
Yeah, I agree it's comes nowhere near a fair valuation of what will probably end up being proved at Hav, but the 5% sets a good base for value as currently understood, $250 would likely take the SP somewhere near 20p, which I'd be happy with, gives a good concrete figure for resistance to build on, then it can go from there as the assets are proved up.
Respectfully - How would you know what info the brokers have?
What i mean is that the brokers ratings represent the markets expectations for FMV, could this be used to poo poo any value below this?
I personally would be happy with $250 for what it's worth.
Purely Hypothetical - but IF GGP & NCM Can't agree to within 10% - Could GGP site the brokers predicted FMV as evidence against amounts lower than this? IE - could they say ' look, brokers have already undertaken independent assessment and arrived at average of around $250 - therefore NCM shouldn't be too far off this number?'
Or would broker predictions be thrown out by an independent valuer due to potential bias?
Any answers gratefully received.
I think a point worth considering is that it's not in NCM's interests to devalue an asset they own 70(5)% of, I think it's in both GGP & NCM best interests to agree a fair price reflective of anticipated future value.