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solid day all round. AGM will be a on event like they always are but once gone it will then make way for STEM news which is where the short term action is on TILS. Since March GC and Kunwar have been very active on the PR side of the business obviously culminating in the bloomberg piece on sunday. crucially as business leaders they get the PR angle is crucial so expect them to release STEM swiftly not least so that the big pharmas who are currently battling it out to buy actually sharpen their pencils and get a move on.
why would any major not want a test from which the market leader turns over $300m a year in a sector that is growing rapidly and that is being touted to list at $280m and that is 40% better than the market leader who bought their test for $2.8bn 8 months ago. The value proposition here is extreme to say the least. Everyone in oncology knows about STEM owing to its profile at the ASCO (the worlds foremost oncology conference) and this is getting sold prior to any listing. The question really is what is the market leader willing to pay to remain the market leader especially when they get calls from oncologists saying we are moving over to STEM now as your test is inferior and we want high accuracy for our patients!
Should be remembered that Oncotype DX is about 15 years old so is well established in the marketplace. However in the last few years we have seen Mammaprint eat into that share especially in Europe. HC Wainwright have put a conservative £280m MC on stemprinter and so based on what they would have done by way of DCF and knowledge in the marketplace that is where the discussion should be. They would not just throw a number out especially when that number is twice the current MC. However, in a big pharma valuing it someone like Roche would think along the lines of how it works with their 2 blockbuster breast cancer drugs so can offer a full service whilst Exact will be mindful of a potential huge competitor hitting the market in 2021 so would buy either to make their service better and/or to prevent a competitor stealing their market. At $280m paid today we would get a nice dividend and money into the phase 2 trials or if a buyer does not come forward then stemprinter can progress and would be worth substantially more in 12 months time with distribution deals and all that comes with actually starting to generate revenue. The analyst wrote 'we anticipate that StemPrintER uptake could be significantly faster than that of Oncotype DX once introduced' in coming up with their $25 valuation of TILS it excluded much of what we are doing such as STEM, TZLS 501, miciclib for anything other than HCC and Formalulab for anything other than crohns so no value for the MS, alzheimers work.
The fact is we are well known to big pharma. Kunwar regular talks of big pharma and with ‘several ndas’ with them so far for our blockbuster drugs, we can expect heavy newsflow up to Q2 2021 Phase II trials commencing and if they go well then expect big names to be circling.
The covid story has legs. Sanofi/Regenron and Roche have all hit difficulties with their drugs which makes TZLS 501 a candidate for therapeutic work and especially with our patent for oral and nasal delivery applicable to remdesivir, TILS are well placed to work with these groups. Any sniff of big pharma involvement will set this share price alight.
Then we have the STEM de-merger which is absolutely massive and may well end up in a sale rather than listing. Is a test that improves the detection on the reoccurrence of breast cancer by over 30% compared to the market leader worth $300m? When compared against a sale that is only 7 months old where Oncotype DX was sold for $2.8bn you would think so. Granted Genomic healthcare was a 1,000 person business, that brings its own issues, so a listing/sale at 10% of that value and still 30% better seems like an opportunity not to be missed. STEM was subject to a poster at ASCO, so seen by all cpmpanies involved in oncology, and a 3,200 person study undertaken by the European Centre of Oncology and Royal Marsden so has serious backing/pedigree. I maintain that Exact sciences (owner of oncotype) should protect their position whilst for a group like Roche (heavily involved in breast cancer drugs) could see some major synergies with owning a testing regime.
Alzheimers, Crohns, liver cancer, MS, covid, breast cancer – big, big markets and growing markets and TILS are well advanced in all of them with crucial IP/patents. Big pharma would do well to start making contact now – oh wait they have….
Remember only 9% of the shares in issue are free float, our CEO owns over 40% and has a history of selling companies for big money and when the current programme of dilution (ATM) ends in July 2020 this will coincide nicely with the STEM listing/sale news. Imagine if STEM is sold with some of the proceeds used as a special dividend and some used to fund further trials, certainly puts TILS into any negotiation with big pharma in a very strong position.
STEM has no value in our portfolio right now because until last month nobody knew about it yet we have one of the best analysts on wall street put a $25 valuation on our shares as is. Hold this share for a few weeks and you get STEM, hold for a year and you get major medical breakthroughs and big pharma news. STEM is our Q3 2020 story, Q3/Q4 will be Covid and 2021 is covid/blockbuster drugs
what has been overlooked from the interview is that following the phase 1 Crohns results, TILS were approached by many big pharma who were very excited by the results. Whoever the CDA is with (top players in the crohns market include Abbvie with their drug humira, the biggest selling drug of all time (GC has referred to this previously - hint hint!!!), J&J, Pfizer, Bayer in a US market worth $9.4bn (2017 )and annual growth rate of 3%-4.3% CAGR and 3m US patients a year) they have dictated that they want to see oral administration. Ahead of the Phase 2 a study has been conducted at Harvard medical that shows that oral administration of antibodies works so Kunwar sees phase 2 as 'derisked'. This is humongous so say Q2 2021 we get results back, and is those results prove what has already been concluded in the small study that this works that is when TILs get just one of their blockbuster drugs into a completely different league. the CDA's then turn into a more serious realm of funding agreements and possible M&A. say TILS can get 5% of the market so circa $500m a year that makes the drug worth $5bn. so buy now to double your money within a few months with the STEM demerger - buy now to potentially and conservatively 10x your money with 12 months. This excludes stem, and everything else in their portfolio which includes 256 patents and covid treatment and Ms, alzheimers and liver cancer
what has been overlooked from the interview is that following the phase 1 Crohns results, TILS were approached by many big pharma who were very excited by the results. Whoever the CDA is with (top players in the crohns market include Abbvie with their drug humira, the biggest selling drug of all time (GC has referred to this previously - hint hint!!!), J&J, Pfizer, Bayer in a US market worth $9.4bn (2017 )and annual growth rate of 3%-4.3% CAGR and 3m US patients a year) they have dictated that they want to see oral administration. Ahead of the Phase 2 a study has been conducted at Harvard medical that shows that oral administration of antibodies works so Kunwar sees phase 2 as 'derisked'. This is humongous so say Q2 2021 we get results back, and is those results prove what has already been concluded in the small study that this works that is when TILs get just one of their blockbuster drugs into a completely different league. the CDA's then turn into a more serious realm of funding agreements and possible M&A. say TILS can get 5% of the market so circa $500m a year that makes the drug worth $5bn. so buy now to double your money within a few months with the STEM demerger - buy now to potentially and conservatively 10x your money with 12 months. This excludes stem, and everything else in their portfolio which includes 256 patents and covid treatment and Ms, alzheimers and liver cancer.
irrespective of what he paid he stands to gain the most from any deal so if you follow the money then no better person to follow than GC. Not sure how much Kunwar owns
and also think why on earth would any pharma who can see the obvious financial gain in both a circa $300m a year turnover sector (from the market leader only) not want to buy a product when just 8 months ago the competitor who you will instantly be 40% better than sold for $2.8bn. If exact sciences can make their product work for colon and prostate cancers then one would of thought STEM can be reconfigured also to be better. Exact obviously have their own motives in that their company could be become worth a fraction of what they paid for it within a year. no brainer whoever you are.
I notice the bank of new york nominees has been replaced by Goldman sachs nominees as the second largest shareholder -only happened in last few days - not sure what to think about it.
should stem list at $280m then say we wait a year until the sale as ultimately GC will determine how it progresses being the major shareholder with i major support from alot of the established HNW/II and we get $1bn - 4 bagger right there and still have 3 blockbuster attempts in TILS. Easy money to be made here if you sit and wait. All the markers are there.
Say Stem lists at $280m it would likely need to raise monies in order to progress towards commerciality. Based on what GC says about it being able to get into hospitals within 12 months then the upwards projection could be massive based on the exact sciences deal. One would hope that GC retains his 40% stake as he has with TILS. With 5 big pharma under CDA on the TILS pipeline and several posters at ASCO everyone will know about TILS and what it has which is why i am very relaxed that value will out in due course and based on Kunwar experience of taking drugs through the process to market and GC deal making skills and one of the best analysts in pharma putting a big target on, I am very confident that TILS/STEM will see huge upside in the next 12 months.
Should be remembered that Oncotype DX is about 15 years old so is well established in the marketplace. However in the last few years we have seen Mammaprint eat into that share especially in Europe. HC Wainwright have put a conservative £280m MC on stemprinter and so based on what they would have done by way of DCF and knowledge in the marketplace that is where the discussion should be. They would not just throw a number out especially when that number is twice the current MC. However, in a big pharma valuing it someone like Roche would think along the lines of how it works with their 2 blockbuster breast cancer drugs so can offer a full service whilst Exact will be mindful of a potential huge competitor hitting the market in 2021 so would buy either to make their service better and/or to prevent a competitor stealing their market. At $280m paid today we would get a nice dividend and money into the phase 2 trials or if a buyer does not come forward then stemprinter can progress and would be worth substantially more in 12 months time with distribution deals and all that comes with actually starting to generate revenue. The analyst wrote 'we anticipate that StemPrintER uptake could be significantly faster than that of Oncotype DX once introduced' in coming up with their $25 valuation of TILS it excluded much of what we are doing such as STEM, TZLS 501, miciclib for anything other than HCC and Formalulab for anything other than crohns so no value for the MS, alzheimers work.
GC says that 7 of the top 10 global drugs are antibodies. if Kunwar's technology is proven - he has the patent - then all antibody delivery can move from an ineffective IV route to a oral route providing better targeted drugs and lower toxicity. A third party study has proven this works for crohns. this is why 5 big pharmas are involved because they know this is a major breakthrough and that breakthrough once proven over the phases is worth $10bn's. These big pharmas have directed how they want our Phase 2's to go and results due Q2 2021 - if those results are positive then this is a share that will experience a major major rerate.
previous to this interview we knew of 'several nda's' we now know it is 5 and those 5 have dictated how they want the phase 2 studies to progress. The crohns study is especially interesting in that the oral method is what big pharma wants to see and a third party study has shown it works in humans so kunwar sees it as derisked. Open door to a billion dollar market. ps we have several of these and i would imagine each big pharma is eyeing particular drugs/technology/condition combinations. Furthermore if nasal, oral or inhalation works then TILS is worth billions straightaway as it is a 'transformational technology'. I feel the interviewer was a bit shocked when kunwar said that stemprinter is 40% better than the market leader having been tested on 3200 patients and repeated for the viewers that oncotype DX sold for $2.8bn.
one of the advisory board of TILS has already developed and sold a cancer drug to Roche. The roche link is therefore strong and i would be surprised if they are not interested in STEM
As i understand it it may not be as easy as just dropping a new test into the hospitals but exact could buy stem and then increase the price per test on the basis it is better. better accuracy in a litigious US would be a major bonus. There are a few tests on the market so one would imagine STEM could easily get a foothold particularly if being driven by a Roche type outfit. Oncologists will want to use the best the market has to offer and STEM is the best by 30-40%. This is not a small number this is massive.
i believe they charge $4000 a test so absolute massive numbers in an ever growing sector (unfortunately). roche surely would want an extra $500m turnover to add to their existing breast cancer portfolio... come on roche.
The fact is we are well known to big pharma. Kunwar regular talks of big pharma and with ‘several ndas’ with them so far for our blockbuster drugs, we can expect heavy newsflow up to Q2 2021 Phase II trials commencing and if they go well then expect big names to be circling.
The covid story has legs. Sanofi/Regenron and Roche have all hit difficulties with their drugs which makes TZLS 501 a candidate for therapeutic work and especially with our patent for oral and nasal delivery applicable to remdesivir, TILS are well placed to work with these groups. Any sniff of big pharma involvement will set this share price alight.
Then we have the STEM de-merger which is absolutely massive and may well end up in a sale rather than listing. Is a test that improves the detection on the reoccurrence of breast cancer by over 30% compared to the market leader worth $300m? When compared against a sale that is only 7 months old where Oncotype DX was sold for $2.8bn you would think so. Granted Genomic healthcare was a 1,000 person business, that brings its own issues, so a listing/sale at 10% of that value and still 30% better seems like an opportunity not to be missed. STEM was subject to a poster at ASCO, so seen by all cpmpanies involved in oncology, and a 2,400 person study undertaken by the European Centre of Oncology and Royal Marsden so has serious backing/pedigree. I maintain that Exact sciences (owner of oncotype) should protect their position whilst for a group like Roche (heavily involved in breast cancer drugs) could see some major synergies with owning a testing regime.
Alzheimers, Crohns, liver cancer, MS, covid, breast cancer – big, big markets and growing markets and TILS are well advanced in all of them with crucial IP/patents. Big pharma would do well to start making contact now – oh wait they have….
Remember only 9% of the shares in issue are free float, our CEO owns over 40% and has a history of selling companies for big money and when the current programme of dilution (ATM) ends in July 2020 this will coincide nicely with the STEM listing/sale news. Imagine if STEM is sold with some of the proceeds used as a special dividend and some used to fund further trials, certainly puts TILS into any negotiation with big pharma in a very strong position.
STEM has no value in our portfolio right now because until last month nobody knew about it yet we have one of the best analysts on wall street put a $25 valuation on our shares as is. Hold this share for a few weeks and you get STEM, hold for a year and you get major medical breakthroughs and big pharma news. STEM is our Q3 2020 story, Q3/Q4 will be Covid and 2021 is covid/blockbuster drugs
worth re watching the Kunwar interviews with andrew scott on proactive. we have the patent for how gilead want to deliver remdesivir (the same drug the US has just bought the global supplies of). Gilead may try and get their own patent but with TILS having a very US focused business and the patent only just recently being grated and announced, it does not take much to start thinking TILS maybe central to a major pharma breakthrough.
so as we know from kunwar, TILS are under NDA with 'several' big pharma who have decided that based on phase 1 data it is bets to move ahead with Phase 2 - in patient trials - with nasal delivery for MS and oral delivery for crohns. results Q2 2021 and from phase 1 the big pharmas were very excited.