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My first stab at a CDA with big pharma is with Biogen a £45bn US Pharma. I believe that our Alzheimers work has been closely followed by Biogen who are working on 5 drugs targeting Alzheimers (phase 1 to 3 with one drug filed with FDA) are the world’s leading pharma on Alzheimers. They work with monoclonal antibodies same as our Foralumab and have worked with Dr Howard Weiner, lead at TILS on Alzheimers in the past and also based in Massachusetts same as Dr Weiner at Harvard. Interestingly, in 2003, in honour of Weiner’s 60th birthday and in recognition of his research in MS and other neurologic diseases, a gift of $3.3M was made to Harvard Medical School by Biogen to establish the Howard L. Weiner chair in neuroscience at Harvard.
Cloudy, the phase 2 trials for Crohns and Ms are in the final throes of permitting before starting. The results are Q2 2021 which will be a major inflection point and should positive results be had then all bets are off and big pharmas come in, in a far more significant way.
The magic of TILS right now is we have a major inflection point coming within circa 2 weeks - the STEM cut off - given the value to be gained over a 12 month period in STEM any investor would in their right minds want a slice and the SP of TILS beforehand will rise - volatile maybe, but rise it will.
or the AIM rational markets!!!
I reckon that if STEM lists at say £250m (£200m in 'free shares' and £50m fund raise) then the current £450m TILs value will in theory be taken down to £250m (assuming rational markets!!) which is ridiculously cheap for both entities. However, this discounts, KC/GC dropping a big pharma partner (from the 5 identified as already having CDA's) and other news on TILS. It is a very simplistic view as at £200m MC TILS reckoned there was zero value for STEM. STEM itself may see a significant rise upon listing also. I see no reason to be out of this right now. I would suspect GC would have spoken to the 91% of non public shares and reassured them of the current situation so that they stick around and are well into the story and oh of course the 40% of shares he holds!!! don't forget how adept TILS are at playing the PR game - the best on AIM by far - sentiment is key - follow the momentum on this stock whether you are in for a trade or investment.
The more I think about it , the more i love the idea of STEM not being taken over. We know that GC et al are very adept at creating shareholder value and we know from y research on Oncotype DX that the gross profit margins are 75% so a hugely valuable sector. By targetting Europe first (Italy then rest of Europe) we are not directly competing with Oncotype DX we are actually competing with Mammaprint which is not as good as Oncotype so the 40% better is actually more. Establish it ins Europe then break the US...
with a main market listing the intention is to get institutions on board. with tils having no need to raise money there is no need to issue more shares. with a lo free float whee will the shares come from? will existing ii want to sell - nope - so price is destined to rise due to demand and solid newsflow. patience is to be rewarded big time here.
The absence of STEM content in the webinar is really quite telling and as someone else has said is more of a GC element rather than KS.
The reappearance of covid chat is interesting to say the least. I have generally attributed no real excitement to that as the IND filing is not until Q1 2021 so potentially all a bit late for anything meaningful. However, with 5 NDA's and assuming no 2 pharmas are NDA on the same indication we could have 1 on crohns, 1 on MS, 1 on miciclib, 1 on alzheimers and then maybe 1 on covid. if a partner drops say Roche especially given the recent failure then rocket time.
why do a webinar on formalulab when with the recent spate of interviews everything that can be said about it has been. I think we are being lined up for an absolute monster RNS post STEM record date being announced which will keep the TILS price going north which would remove any fear of a stem linked reduction in capital. TILS have not worked this hard and spent this much money on PR to have STEM reduce to be a negative on STEM. STEM is not GC/KS baby, TILS is and they will want TILS to be front and centre of everything going forward. Willy Simon (accustem)can lead on STEM. The most exciting part of this story is that my research has led to a large investment and the research has been spot on to date. big news coming...
funny how this years ASCO coincided with the STEM demerger plan.
breast cancer is the biggest market within the biggest market and STEM got a poster (itself a major achievement) at the highest profile oncology conference. It is abundantly clear to me that at the event, GC/KS were overwhelmed by the response pre and post event. STEM is very much on the to buy list of all major pharma testing companies. Now we have 5 big pharma after our blockbusters from a team who have a PR machine that is unrivalled on AIM. ATM ends this week. the potential inflection points are truly remarkable. some of us may be bagging but dont give in easily hold tight to TILS and to STEM both are currently big but will be immense. Remember companies are made on partnering with a big pharma who normally then swallow them. we have 5 after us...
i can only put it down to the ATM issue but we will know for sure in next few days as ATM ends.
reckon the Bod are lining up ducks though when ATM ends, STEM splits then TILs news comes a flowing starting with 2 phase 2 trials commencing with two as yet unnamed big pharmas.
The amount and extent of PR from the bod is phenomenal. For an AIM investor this alongside a pharma bull market and innovative company focussed on major markets is the holy grail. With Stem coming, even at this price it is still an absolute steal. Even if GC has a bonus at £3, his real bonus is the 40% holding he has in TILs and soon STEM/accustem. He will be a billionaire very soon. Follow the money here - GC and the 5 big pharmas who all want apiece of the action. Derampers can say what they want but follow the science, follow the money.
lets shut that point down straightaway. you get 1:1 shares. there is no way that GC with his 40% holding would get 1 share whilst me with my 1 share also get 1 share. makes no sense and how would you sell 1 share - GC's would be worth about $100m.
moving on
This is a nice summary davey of the market place showing some groups like Roche have diagnostics in house (and also collaborate) whilst the majority collaborate. oncology is definitely the biggest diagnostic market. breast cancer is the biggest market within the biggest market and our test is 40% better than the best test out there.
https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/pharma-facing-up-to-new-role-as-driver-of-better-diagnostics
Not really although does highlight the way big pharma is going after cancer. breast cancer is the biggest market so with stem testing for the re-occurrence of breast cancer, a clever big pharma would test for that then sell the drug off the back of it IMO.
from the proactive emma ulker article - takes us to Q1 2021 then straight into the market. see my posts over the weekend for who would be interested in acquiring. big list, big players, big money
StemPrintER is being developed as an accredited laboratory-developed test (LDT) through the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) waiver pathway in US. Regulatory approval requires an additional validation study to be completed for market approval as a LDT in US and Europe, although this is a much less arduous route than full FDA regulatory clearance and can be completed in around 6 months.
there is a reason why a big pharma will not want to buy STEM yet is because of the perceived, albeit very low, risk of STEM not getting through the testing process. however, given how good STEm is and how much you could buy it for now (peanuts in big pharma terms) i am of the opinion that serious interest has been shown and a buyer is out there.
we know that big pharma have told TILS what they want to see on Crohns and MS . it makes sense for them to tell TILS what they want . ultimately big pharma know that they are dealing with M&A experts in the pharma field so you ask for what you want and if you get what you want you pay big for it simple as that.
'AstraZeneca Plc agreed to pay as much as $6 billion to buy into a promising medicine for lung and breast cancer in the second potential blockbuster oncology deal in two years with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo Co. The U.K. drugmaker will pay Daiichi $1 billion upfront to jointly develop and bring to market a cancer therapy in early clinical tests called DS-1062, with as much as $5 billion in additional payments subject to regulatory and sales milestones, the companies said Monday.'
areas that TILS are very much involved in so does suggests the appetite is big for the right products in the right markets.
There is little risk of that. oncotype has been the leader for 15 years and new tests such as mammaprint have had limited uptake and focussed on minor markets like spain and portugal.
you could make a case for every big pharma to want STEM but ultimately we need t see what GC can magic up. i am happy either way. Just remember we are very much in the spotlight with this so everyone knows about us.
as an aside everyone needs to remember that there will be a capital raising of say $20m to pay for STEM costs going forward for the year.
Novartis – like Pfizer, not big in diagnostics but have big growth aspirations for a breast cancer drug called kisqali.
Thermo fisher – massive in testing much like abbott, strong in cancer, addition of STEM would make sense.
Eli Lilly – an outside bet as their cancer division is weak on sales apart from their breast cancer offering which is going well.
There are at least 7 others including GE and some lesser known diagnostic businesses that should be interested.
We do not know how much competition there was for Oncotype DX from other bidders or whether the 1,000 employees put other buyers off as it would be much easier to integrate a start up into the existing sales/distribution channels or whether a 15 year old test was deemed to be at the end of its lifespan or did some just know about STEM as an early mover.
For all of the above anything under $1bn is peanuts especially given the gross margin potential and crucially what they can then sell off the back of it.
In my opinion, I am more than happy to wait 12 months for additional value as major milestones are hit especially the 6 month target of getting approval for the test (FDA is not needed). I can wait but can a big pharma wait and then spend more?
It is all well and good saying STEM is worth X but unless there is a buyer then it has limited value. Clearly we know that every oncology busines bar none knows about STEM given the ASCO poster and thus everyone knows how much better it is. GC would have sounded out any potential buyers early and would be progressing towards a listing but with one eye on a trade sale.
The real magic of STEM is the near term revenue generating qualities. Within a year the test could be in hospitals earning a 75% gross margin (this is what exact earn). This is really attractive to big pharma. The cancer diagnostics market is forecast to be worth $250bn by 2023 a CAGR of 7% per annum. Breast cancer is currently and forecast to be the biggest contributor to this and is growing with increased prevalence in asia. Test them then sell them the drugs – an absolute no brainer for big pharma earning big money on both.
Most of the big pharmas have significant cancer capacity be it drugs or diagnostics.
Roche – is a major player in diagnostics of cancers and also drugs with $26bn revenue in 2018 coming from them. They have at least 2 breast cancers drugs which I have posted before about. Indeed, their strongest growth drugs include Perjeta for breast cancer.
Abbott – is a big player in diagnostics with 13% of revenue coming from testing for cancer. So clearly the sales and distribution teams are in place and relationships exist so adding STEM makes a lot of sense.
Pfizer – from what I can find, Pfizer are not that hot in diagnostics but what piqued my interest, much like Roche, is the sales link for a drug they have called ibrance which is used to prevent the reoccurrence of breast cancer exactly what STEM tests for. Test the patient and then sell them a drug. Cancer drugs contribute 15% of revenue and include other breast cancer drugs including talzenna.