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Everybody still arguing about timings of share prices lol.
Shamus must believe Cinema is either dead or Cineworld ( and by implication AMC given similar debt levels ) are also dead.
And we have a bunch of others certain that a high price will turn up in a few months.
The share price is a reflection of all interest in it on balance on any date and cannot be predicted accurately and repeatedly otherwise we would all be millionaires and trading CFDs daily.
This company may fail spectacularly but i dont think the probability of this is high. As with anything there is a risk I am wrong and i have no leverage against me so my 50,000 shares will simply be hoping that the market eventually reflects in a different time on the same business more positively.
As i said originally i hope Cineworld have taken similar measures to AMC and that some of this is clear on the 24th, but who knows what that will do to the share price on the day or even shortly after. There is still a massive difference of interest in this share within the market - it may take some time to change.
There appears to be many trolls but also many fantastists hoping for £1 tomorrow or double that in 6 months!
Try and ignore the share price... Business can be bought for £650m or so plus debt at today's price. Without me knowing the exact bank debt let's assume £4.5bn so the EV is about £5bn. £5bn EV is quite expensive for a business that might only do £300m EBITDA ( peel hunt ) this year really isn't it but then debt is cheap and maybe looking forward in 6 months time we are thinking it will do £800m EBITDA again by end of 2021 and it looks pretty cheap.
It really doesn't matter predicting share prices is impossible it might be 30p tomorrow but everything we've just said is still true.
The question is when do you think CINE will do 800m EBITDA again. 2021 or 2022 or never? if the answer is never then sell now.
You own part of a business not some share that jumps up and down with the joint efforts of 10s of millions of punters every day.
What is the saying ' trying to make your money too quickly is the best way to lose it ' ?
I think it has a healthy future but who knows when.
There really is a lot of stuff posted here everyday.
I hold a substantial number of Cineworld shares purchased over the last year at around 80p average. This is a business that has survived a very long time in an industry that's made it through world wars and numerous technology changes.
The share price reflects fear about its long term revenue prospects and current precarious debt situation ( i do not include leases in that as they are no different to other monthly obligations like wages etc ). That said all banks are being very flexible with customers regarding covenant breaches, there are many many companies in breach of their covenants right now.
I personally don't see a huge equity issue as likely given it will dilute Mooky's holding so much - we have to hope that given we have a majority shareholder in this position he will act in his/our best interests. If further cash is needed debt seems more likely.
Will the industry shrink if Cinemas are not viable somehow long term to showcase and provide returns for huge blockbusters with massive budgets? I think not but it's possible.
Will PVOD replace cinemas long term? I don't think so and i cant see anyone taking their date to a living room near you to see a film and put their arm around them.
The future will see structural changes and technological innovations that we can't see coming but i think Cineworld will be here for at least a couple of years and that studios will want their returns through these cinemas. It remains relatively cheap as a night out for people - there is a very short list of things i can do with my gf on a thursday night if we want to go out at that sort of price.
Mulan's debut looks impressive to me but it doesn't convince me cinema is dead anymore than Tenet slowly doing hundreds of millions in revenue convinces me Cineworld is going to £2 anytime soon.
I think we just need to stay calm and own Cineworld or not. It's volatile both ways as it is a huge player with 20% margins in a massive industry but is directly impacted by the virus and ongoing attempts to curb it with as much debt as AMC.
Hopefully the 24th will show that our business is being well managed and that there is not horrendous cash burn. AMCs recent release showed they had reached quite favourable agreements with landlords and lenders, i would hope Cineworld have achieved much the same and we can slowly see attendances across the world creep up.
FYI Tenet is amazing.