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I agree with Tomes. I started buying bit at 35p and bought even more down here. Even at a market cap or 110m or something it's still very well priced and it's much cheaper today.
If you gave me 100% of this business tomorrow at these prices i'd be very happy - that's how i always look at it.
You see describing investing here as a dumb punt worries me too, that is not the sort of language that will rally rationale investors to the cause... People are angry over AISC costs in the 4th quarter which are worlds away from the average last year on the whole.
Everyone chill. Plenty of miners fail, we arn't invested in Unilever or something are we. However I personally really like the risk/reward here and intend to watch the next 12 months closely.
I hold 180000 shares here too at various levels im quite happy with.
I don't want the management constantly dealing with the same questions over and over too much, i'm pretty sure they understand the task at hand. They have also explained in both the recent interviews and the RNS 95% of what is going on and taking this in and assessing it just like Tomes has is enough for me.
Personally i think serious investors have enough information to appreciate the business they can own through publicly traded shares here.
We are owners of a mining company that produces one commodity - gold. Operational risks and returns coming with the territory and to their credit over time this has turned into a very interesting proposition at these values now. I would appreciate greater breakdowns next time but we are looking forward at a very attractive situation now in my view.
Also we are now - i assume - without interest costs each year. These have been about £7m a year 2018 & 2019.
just trying to give us all a few reasons not to sell immediately because of expected higher AISC number ! :)
We mustn't forget they also just reported that net profit has nearly TRIPLED.
I agree with a lot of posts from people who are disappointed and the aisc going forward is a blow. But the volumes and expectations for profit that go with this are still very compelling given the current market cap.
Far too negative here. This is a business so not everything you hear sounds great or works in practice. If you want a single jurisdiction low aisc gold producer go buy TSG.
But TSG market cap is only a bit less than Hummingbird and their EBITDA is half what we've got here.
This is a great business to hold at these prices. Ignore today's share price movement in the first 10 minutes, such things are completely irrelevant.
Ignore daily gyrations in the market guys, the first 10 minutes of trading mean absolutely nothing lol. Would you buy a business for £110m that might make circa £70m pre tax/capex next year? That's pretty cheap.
Hummingbird has a very similar market cap to TSG and their EBITDA is maybe half what Hummingbirds is.
AISC up yes but 2021 market cap to EBITDA is compelling here. As near as damn it debt free and market cap 110m with forecast EBITDA 70m?
I'm quite happy to own this business going forward.
Have to admit i sold out today. I've booked a small profit on the whole holding and moved on to other things. I think Mooky has done a great job here for what its worth, the deal looks about as good as he could get for more money.
But i think it might now be a long time before Cineworld does much for shareholders. The debt is large at almost £5bn and it worries me too much to hold here and see more debt piled on all the time.
I love Cineworld as a business and the experience it offers but the level of debt and continued closures worry me too much!
Good luck all holders you can at least breath a sigh of relief now and fingers crossed the short positions start to close over the coming days/weeks.
Yeah i'm not all in on Cineworld or anything but its a great business in normal times and is very undervalued as long as it has its normal robust revenue stream.
but it doesn't and its very hard to see where this is all heading now.
All investors who own a chunk of this business should weigh the decisions up carefully now. I think our business currently has zero revenue and likely still chunky costs.
If that was my daily job, running this business on its own i would be very worried.
My thinking is that the best time to invest in this business is when there is more clarity or its future, there will still be a large profit to be made at that point.
Ignore the share price for a moment, we own a business which has pretty dire prospects now. In my view when tenet came out and other great films were slated for release Cineworld could scrape a profit and the world was slowly reopening etc.
This really doesn't appear to be the case now does it?
Definately going to give it some thought as it is quite hard to see how Cineworld does well as a business from this point forward.
I can see a great slate for 2021 but the next 6 months are quite worrying now really arnt they. If this was your business and you owned 100% of it would you be pretty optimistic ? I would be pretty worried to be fair.
All of you know i'm a holder here but the delay of films and subsequent reaction across the industry is worrying.
Anyone care to try and explain the references to cash and survivability in previous reports? I am seriously considering selling my share in a business which is closed for the foreseeable future with at best still quite serious costs on a monthly basis.
I said before that the case for Cineworld just hinged on when an investor thought i might make a profit again but at the time figured that people would start going back to cinemas again but almost all films have been postponed now and the cinemas are shut globally. To my mind this is now a fairly risky investment given the debt.
I think the directors need to make a statement about survivability in the circumstances as they wern't expecting this either.
Ok then question for all these people who keep saying equity equity equity debt.
As holders ( which i assume you are ) would you rather put more money into Cineworld for the same shareholding ( as will be your right ) or them take out extra debt at x% interest?
I've got the money to double my holding if they want to double the market cap.
No they didn't they said if within their different scenarios certain things happen then they may look to extend the RCF, look for further loans or equity raise.
Do people not actually read this stuff and just post 15 word sentences each time?
usually_right you misunderstand. I'm saying that with EV might be around £5bn and as such where the market cap doesnt change this a great deal whether its 20p or 40p.
I understand what you are saying and i admit that EV/EBITDA even if the EBITDA is £500m for the year its 10x with 90% of that EV being debt. I'm not saying its dirt cheap and will be £1 tomorrow i'm not one of those nutters.
I'm saying the cash burn looks minimal and if you think this might recover by the end of 2021 to 2019 levels or similar then you will have a share that looks cheap today.
This is the view that matters. What will it recover to and when.
Just depends where people find value. If the EV is £5bn then whether the market cap is £500m or £250m doesnt change much.
Yep maybe debt holders are running the show but if you believe that then banks will end up owning all the airlines too.
Up to everyone to work this out for themselves.
Personally i'm not interested in leases as debt any more than other long term obligations to pay someone something. It's not debt that someone can call in and cause you a problem on today. For anyone who thinks otherwise Usually_right is right.
They've confirm they have about £4.5bn in debt and facilities and a market cap of £500m so the business has an EV of £5bn.
As i've said before this is the cost to buy the business and its value inc debt. The question as to whether this is cheap or not depends on when it will make a recovery to say £400m adjusted EBITDA.
As i've said before if anyone believes this business won't make a recovery at some point this isnt for you.
I expect it will but this isn't going to look good until we get better news from the US market or a vaccine.
These results show us what we already knew, the H1 was a car crash. I'm not an expert but the cash burn appears quite low ( although admittedly Cineworld's financing activities are not so easy to follow ), if anyone with better skills than me can confirm please do ?
The board do not rule out all sorts of measures should the worst case scenario occur ( although this would be worst case for the economy as a whole and one has to think we won't get to that stage ) which for holders we fully expect them to.
I am a holder over the last year and continue to hold. As i said before Cineworld are likely to get waivers ( many companies are in breach of financial covenants ) but the question for all us crazy holders are:
1) when will cineworld return to a half decent cash profit ( they have many non-cash items in their accounts so don't get confused by £1.6bn loss ).
I personally believe it will be end of 2021 before we can all see a different picture or on implementation of a vaccine. Don't forget the US market appears to be the biggest problem here right now, the UK and ROW seem to be going to the cinema is decent quantities even though this accounts for a much smaller share of their total revenue.
There is no doubt there is risk here but for the risk to materialise attendances and shutdowns must actually get worse from here which i don't think will happen.
No doubt this is a tricky one but everyone should ignore the share price and simply focus on what the business just told them and if the cash burn is minimal and the business picks up slowly from here in the US then this business looks quite cheap to me. Of course the opposite is possible too so we must keep our fingers crossed !
To be fair he is right about lots of what he says. Cineworld will likely breach its covenants but i don't think there will be much enforcement.
I wouldnt say its ' likely ' to need further money but its possible. It has enough cash to last long into 2021 not the start though?
The rest gets really wild and you are just ranting that there will be no more blockbusters no cash being made no great profit split etc.
Noone expects Cineworld to make a large profit shortly but it does have a repeatable model which i don't think is going anywhere over a reasonable period.
Its not about those statements so much as some doomsday conclusion that Cineworld is about to destroy all investors somehow because of any of these guesstimates.
Obviously its your strongly held view so i assume you've sold all your shares and are shorting the stock ? ( which by the way i have no problem with at all ). But might you confirm just so we know you've put your money where you mouth is?
You mention fundamentals but only mention the share price and a death spiral over and over again.
If you like the opposite so much go load up on Tesla and Kodak and just buy everything as high as it goes, in fact you will make even more money as you buy more and more shares at even higher prices !!
Cineworld is a business not a share price. Its future is unclear but it is likely to have one as will all the other companies you mention. You are mentioning cyclical companies and oil businesses which because of a collapse in demand also have uncertain futures and are temporarily cheaper than they were.
Clearly you don't want to invest in Cineworld so a short post about why the business might might carry too much risk relative to the reward will suffice.
This message board seems to get claimed by a bunch of idiots on both sides depending on whether the share is up or down on any day!!