The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
If/when any of the current royalty deals come to fruition then we should all be happily sat at to much highersp/ mcap. Say we use a conservative sum from China of £150mil (they have said potential £300mil pa) and a similar amount from US and throw in a few £mil for SGSC. What would you pay to takeover a Company with yearly royalty payments of say £300mil? No matter how much you paid you would get your money back in a short timeframe and have the added bonus, if you were a company previously paying the royalty that you would infact be earning rather than paying it out. All subjective: It needs to be commercialised first GLA
"It is intended that initial development will
commence within 60 days of Cizzle Biotechnology supplying its immunoreagents to the China
partners, anticipated to be in Q2 2022". Taken from the China deal RNS. I am hoping for an RNS to confirm supply and start of trial but on the downside I'm not sure how the lockdowns in China might affect the initial pilot. If the final contract with CorePath is completed in good time it may well overtake China despite FDA approval etc. Will need a bit of time for all this to pan out. Patience really needed with this. Huge upside potential.
I agree it's held up well today with those big sells so much so we can only hope it's all running out of steam on the selling front and due a run. We shall see. Top up for me late on today @ 1613 so that's not a sell as described on here. GLA
Thank you everyone for your input. Food for thought. Personally I am not overly concerned with the timeline. There is plenty of news due and the sgs royalty deal may give us a boost a bit sooner. I think we can all agree we are undervalued for where we are at. Maybe not by much at present but the potential is there for all to see and why I am holding. GLA
Thanks Jace. It will be interesting seeing how this pans out. First stop, initial delivery of antigens/reagents, then hope they start the trial in good time. I don't want to think of a timeframe for the initial 300 patient pilot. Wording on the rns would suggest they want to get on with it. I am happy to hold and have a couple of strategies in mind to derisk some or all of invested capital. News on other fronts could land at any time which might put a grenade to my spreadsheet workings!!! GLA invested in Ciz.
Jace you are correct, "net" is not mentioned on the rns. It is on the latest Hardman and Co write up which unfortunately I cant attach. It's on the Cizzle website under "news". States "Cizzle will be paid for the supply of antibodies and reagents used in the test and will receive a royalty of 10% on net sales".
Yes, if successful then potentially 30m tests per year @ £100 per test (£3bn) that we would get 10% of net. I am trying to be conservative by saying £100m of royalty payment. We shall see. High risk, high reward. Quietly confident the test works it just needs tweeking for mass use which is what I think the China deal will sort out. Let's hope we also get news on an NHS or US deals some time soon. All my opinion.
Just my opinion Earl but if the China deal works out and China get anywhere near the £3bn per year figure that we will get 10% of net sales from then I feel it would be worth way more. Not sure how you do the maths workings but lets just say we end up with £100m from our 10% (which would naturally be £300m of £3bn), so approx 1/3 of the estimates, our mcap is currently just over £6m. I am not attempting to ramp it's just my belief and why I am holding. We all know there is even more in the pipeline,
The china deal is really exciting and we can all read on the RNS the kind of figures that may come to fruition if it goes well. The comments from the people involved stand out apart from the potential monetary figures involved.
Founder of iCCAMT said, amongst the figures involved, the following:
“agreement represents a significant opportunity to bring early and cost-effective cancer
detection to the people of China. We have already secured strong interest from our nationwide network of
national clinical centers and key opinion leaders because of the promising results using the CIZ1B
biomarker for lung cancer early detection in the UK and one our first tasks is to commence pilot
studies”
Commenting, Dr Xiaoyun Huang, CEO and Founder of Intelliphecy said:
“There is an urgent need for early lung cancer detection in China. We are looking forward to initiating the development of CIZ1B based early lung cancer detection products and services as soon as possible.”
So:
"Significant opportunity", "Strong interest", "promising results", "urgent need", Development asap"
DYOR but to me its very promising.
Al
is on site at Ben's Creek according to the Sunday Roast boys. Just put out on twitter with a picture.
Thanks BigK. Was not overly concerned as the company is coining it in.......
GLA
has just popped up. Can anyone please explain as I've not encountered this in any investments before.
Thanks in advance.
I agree but I'm not overly concerned. It will move when it moves. Plenty in the pipeline that could land at any time: US, NHS deals etc. Would like to think they would inform us when the antigens have been delivered to China which is just a month or so away now.
Don't want to appear to be ramping this Jed but please read the latest RNS's, well all of them really to get a taste of the company. Research as much as you can. The present market cap is just shy of £7m and they have just signed a deal with China which, if the trial is successful, could bring in huge royalty payments (many £m's). They are also looking to expand the world over, USA, NHS, next.? It is a real game changer in lung cancer detection. My initial target is way higher than where it is at present. Do some research fella and all the best.
Ciz will be paid for all the antigens supplied to China and won't be doing that without making some sort of profit. All the hard work they have put in getting this far is starting to pay off. They are due a payment from SGSC thus quarter. Just can't see them wanting to raise funds when they must sense/know its going to kick off. Words of CEO and founder of Intelliphecy RNS dated 02.02 "we are looking forward to initiating the development of CIZ1B based early lung cancer detection products and services as soon as possible" DYOR and GLA
Looking back at the RNS's the first CLN was announced on the 15th Dec and the lease agreement came the following day. Looking forward to Monday......GLA
Have spent some time today (crxp weather) rereading the last 2 rns's and feel the risk/reward here, for me personally, is just too good an opportunity to miss. Yes the sp has not moved as we would have all liked it however its allowed me to add to my small pot and anyone reading if you so wished. I sense its being held back.
My main takes:
The Agreement WILL generate future revenues for Cizzle Biotechnology via a 10% royalty on the sales of all products and services using its proprietary CIZ1B technology and from payment for monoclonal antibodies and reagents.
10% of a potential £3bn market pa. Huge!.
The China partners will be solely responsible for funding all activities in China including development, clinical trials, manufacturing, and distribution. It is intended that initial development will commence within 60 days of Cizzle Biotechnology supplying its immunoreagents to the China partners, which is anticipated to be in Q2 2022.
The partners involved are serious institutions and businesses and are not in this on a whim. Someone pointed out that investors may be worried we are dealing with China who might say rip us off. I just cannot see that in this situation. We will also have little, if anything to fund.
So the draw back:
An initial pilot covering 300 patients is planned at China's premier cancer hospitals, which will allow for a true representative patient cohort to be included and, IF SUCCESSFUL, is expected to accelerate adoption and product rollout in China.
So there it is. We know it works, we just need that trial to be successful.
Are people being impatient re commencement within 60 days?
So on top of that amazing deal we have the following:
Current Mk Cap £6m. Possibility of £300m income pa from China deal alone. Cant get head around potential of that...And more deals in the pipeline given the BOD wanting this worldwide.
253m shares in issue, approx 70% held by BOD and institutions. Hold them shares tight.
£200k payment due to CIZ from SGS this quarter.
Still possibility of £5m payment from SGS for covid drug.
GLA