Member Info for Al180

Hi W13Ken,

Hardide is finally starting to get the coverage it deserves. If you look back just six months, there were days with absolutely no trades and hardly any posts on the forums.

While the recent flood of orders from the US energy major has thrown Hardide into the spotlight, I think the true turnaround started a couple of years ago. Airbus had finally begun to provide meaningful, recurring revenue, and the Board had been refreshed. Cash breakeven was reduced from £7m down to £5m, and a more commercially minded management team started aggressively targeting their core markets.

hTtps://www.aero-mag.com/were-promoting-the-coating

This aerospace industry article highlights the technical advantages of the coating. It mentions a few Airbus models supplied with Hardide parts, but with the exception of the A320, it primarily refers to replacement spare parts approved for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) outlets. Note that the article also predates the recent cargo plane award:

I think aerospace will be the long term jewel in the crown, in the short term I would be surprised if the US energy customer doesn’t sign a long term framework agreement and the middle east customer convert from testing to production orders.

This is not an AIM jam tomorrow story, the valuation barely reflects current profits let alone the prospects for 2027 and beyond.

When the x-ray article popped up on the Hardide website yesterday I seemed to remember this had been a small volume niche market for Hardide in airport scanners for some time. An AI assisted search shows it does go all the way back to 2014, this is from the H1 interim results 12 years ago……………

“development work on a component used in an airport 3D X-ray baggage scanning machine... has now gone into production with a global manufacturer in this sector.”

This has been regular small volume revenue for years but maybe it is about to become more significant. The article points out the advantages of coating a copper Anode compared to machining a pure Tungsten Anode, also more relevant now is the cost savings with the price of Tungsten. There is also mention of its use for analysis in the semiconductor market so this perhaps connects with Hardide’s first sales to this sector.

Good to hear you're in profit after all this time. Hardide has been a slow burner for so long but I’m hopeful that the directional drilling sleeve market is the killer application us long term holders have been hoping for many years

Historically energy revenue has been up and down as projects come and go but this customer will provide high volume recurring revenue if a framework deal is done. My research makes me as certain as I can be that the US customer is one of the top four service providers for shale drilling. The industry has a growing problem with rig downtime due to longer lateral wells becoming more common, Hardide coated sleeves last 3-5 times longer than the boronising and nitriding treatments previously used and appear to be the only solution that can survive the 500 hour 3 mile drills.

We will start 2027 with £20m capacity after the facility upgrades are completed late 2026, the new reactors will be capable of £3.9m -£5.1m additional capacity each giving a total of £36m -£41m when all four reactors we have room for are operational. This is an eye-watering level of capacity that we could have only dreamed of a year ago, the question is how quickly it can be bought online.

The latest Cavendish note is now available on Hardide website.

hTtps://www.hardide.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Cavendish-Research-Note-27-May-2026.pdf

Another article on Hardides results, the writer doesn't seem to know the company as well as the Wizard but pretty positive stuff and brings attention to Hardide

hTtps://kalkine.co.uk/news/industrials/is-lsehdd-hardide-the-next-uk-industrial-multibagger-after-its-205-surge-today

Yes it is a very good piece and shows the share price is still catching up with reality rather than getting ahead of itself.

The directional drilling sleeves have been a transformational market for hardide in the past six months but coming from one major customer, the award of another part mentioned in the results showing further adoption from this customer along with confidence that the middle east will convert from testing to production orders gives me confidence this market will keep growing.

The Tungsten debate has detracted from the huge potential here but I wouldn't criticise Charlie for raising the points.

Charlie's AI search talks of shortages of high grade deposits outside of China but you can also get answers that say the rest of the world has barely scratched the surface of reserves that are of superior grade to China due to them aggressively exploiting their mines for years. For example Australia produced 1000 tons in 2025 of ore that was more than double the quality of Chinese ore and has reserves of 220,000 tons, the Sandong mine that has just come online in South Korea also has double the purity of Chinese ore. Asking AI if recycling and currently operational mines producing more are making a difference and it will say yes and it’s the reason the price has dropped significantly from March highs.

I’ve found with AI it will go down the route of giving you the answer your looking for, I did a lot of research on directional drilling when Hardide started engaging with the major US and middle east company and it gave me some great information, when I started looking into the ESG benefits of Hardide coated drilling sleeves it started providing evidence that they could be recoated which I found out at the AGM was wrong.

Capacity from what we already have in place and additional reactors when installed are both about double what was anticipated a year or so ago this is far more than I was expecting from the optimising process.

The middle east customer looks like it will move from testing to production orders and there is now interest and small repeat orders from other US energy customers moving Hardide away from one big customer in the new directional drilling market.

I was expecting a better SP reaction to an exceptional update.

I’ve read a lot of articles on the Tungsten market and felt they mostly ignored currently producing mines ramping up production which I’d been looking into.

I asked AI if it thought this was true……………………

“A significant amount of academic literature uses linear demand-to-supply forecasting models. Researchers often plot current production capacity against a skyrocketing demand curve (like defense or EV sector growth) to show a massive impending gap.

They often fail to account for the Price-Elasticity of Supply: as soon as a bottleneck occurs and the price spikes, existing operators immediately high-grade their mines, run extra shifts, and optimize their tailing re-processing. This dynamic, real-time response is notoriously difficult to capture in a static academic paper.

The Verdict: You are noticing a real blind spot. General critical mineral articles tend to focus heavily on the extremes—either the absolute status quo (current production tables) or distant future solutions (mines to be built by 2030)—largely missing the messy, highly fluid mid-tier of existing operations aggressively ramping up capacity to capture high spot prices.”

I was thinking more about price volatility and timing of their purchases with bulk storage tanks, Hardide have never mentioned a potential scarcity issue as far as I know. I did consult AI on this and it thought the chances were very low, it also bought up the point about having Airbus and the major oil company having a vested interest in Hardide being supplied should this ever happen.

The results are actually out tomorrow so no doubt we will get more information regarding this. I think the SP would be higher if this wasn’t something an issue considering recent orders and increase in capacity .

Maybe Hardide could install bulk storage tanks containing enough for perhaps six months to a year supply rather than a few weeks using cylinders, this would reduce the cost of gas and enable them to ride out volatility in the market. How feasible this is in reality I have no idea.

I think the medium and long term future for the Tungsten market may be better than some of the articles indicate. Kazakhstan alone should produce 12000 tons PA, a lot more than the 5000 tons predicted in additional yearly production outside of China .

This is due to the US investing $1.1 billion in the region including investment from Donald Trump's sons. Kazakhstan is producing 2400 tons yearly now the new projects will be producing in three years time.

hTtps://www.mining.com/trump-sons-invested-in-us-group-developing-1-1b-tungsten-project-in-kazakhstan-ft/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20merger,mining%20district%20of%20Central%20Kazakhstan.&text=According%20to%20Cove%20Capital%2C%20the,by%

In the here and now, last week's meeting in China spoke of cooperation with follow-up discussions in the US soon, this at least makes it look unlikely China will further restrict exports in the short term. With new production also coming online and increased output from some currently producing mines the chance of Hardide not being able to buy Tungsten gas at any time looks small, I think our two main customers Airbus and the major US oil service supplier would also do what they could to help ensure supply if this ever became a problem

Although the Tungsten gas price looks like it will be under pressure for some time I don’t see it as a big problem for Hardide unless things get significantly worse.

I’m looking forward to the update too, the figures for H1 have already been estimated at approximately £4.5m along with a forecast of £12.4m for FY26. The interesting part will be what Hardide says about Capacity, the US customer, forecast for FY 2027 and the cost of Tungsten gas.

The current forecast equates to H2 revenue of £7.9m, this is a dramatic increase from H2 2025 revenue of £3.2m and implies an annual run rate of £15.8m.

My assumption is this increase in capacity is being achieved without additional reactors which I think will come online during 2027, if this is the case we are looking at capacity of over £20m when both facilities have their additional two reactors that they have space for.

The US energy customer has been transformational for Hardide, they appear to be ordering as many directional drilling sleeves as Hardide can produce but for now this is one customer dominating demand. A framework agreement with this customer or additional orders from another service provider in the US or middle east would add certainty to this new market going forward.

I believe we will get some guidance for 2027 revenue in the update or from Cavendish, if we do this could be spectacular considering H2 run rate along with additional capacity probably coming online in 2027.

Concerns around the price of Tungsten and the knockon affect for Tungsten gas has in my opinion held the share price back, there is plenty of Tungsten ore in the ground but the world is playing catch up on new production. Any positive news on how Hardide is managing this pricing situation going forward would be well received.

I don’t think Hardide supplies anything for the US defence sector, small volume parts go to BAE systems for the Tornado and Eurofighter but nothing in the US as far as I know. The Martisville production facility being in the US could potentially lead to them using CVD in which case the defence sector should make sure we have compliant gas

The whole situation has caused a big increase in the Tungsten price. China put export restrictions on the US and slowed production forcing the price higher at a time when the US have been stockpiling ahead of the Jan 27 deadline.

Although the US has invested heavily in future production, it has a mine in South Korea that has just come online and one in Montana in 2027 most of the Major projects are two or more years away from production.

Donald Trump says he will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping in China on 14-15 May. Export restrictions have become China's answer to US tariffs so I would expect talks to cover this, I hope they go well.

HTtps://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/3a248fa5-7cb3-4ec9-bc1f-800225117515

Investors Chronicle have published a piece on Hardide.

It looks quite bullish but behind a paywall so I've only read the headlines.

With progress on capacity and the US customer seemingly buying as many sleeves as we can coat I think the share price would have normally exceeded recent highs, the drag here is the comments on the Tungsten market which effect effect the price of Tungsten gas and the subsequent additional costs in H2 of £700K.

The Tungsten market is a bit different to many metals as there is no spot price or futures market, the price is essentially a negotiation between buyers and sellers. Increased demand from AI chips and the defence sector along with the closing of the straits of hormuz has caused a price spike, China also has a virtual monopoly on the market and seems in no hurry to increase production while they are coining it in a t current prices.

The bright spot is that US company “Almonty Industries” based in Montana commissioned the Sangdong Mine in South Korea on March 16, 2026, It is now producing tungsten concentrate. Once it hits full capacity (2027), it will supply 40% of all tungsten outside China.

The additional costs of £700K is 9% of H2 forecast turnover (£7.9m), Hardide are addressing this with selling price surcharges and internal operational efficiencies mentioned in the RNS,

Hi markparker, I was there with my brother sitting on the same side of the table at Matt a couple of people to his left.

The fracking link comes from some detailed research I did with AI. The clues were spread over previous announcements that mentioned , directional drilling, extending horizontal drilling over greater distances and potential long term recurring revenue , these all point to shale drilling. A search of the middle east uncovered a huge recent increase in directional drilling rigs from virtually zero a few years ago, there was one standout fracking project in Saudi Arabia now going into production which I suspect is our customer over there.

It will be interesting to see what the forecast is for 2027 , I believe we may get one from Cavendish after the interim update.

Thanks for that Markparker, I think we talked briefly and you’re also a very long term holder if I’ve got the right person.

So we should have two extra reactors coming online sometime in H1 or early H2 2027 giving £2m-£3m extra capacity, add to this a potential 20% increase from optimisation and we are looking at somewhere in the region of £16m capacity with room for two more reactors at Oxford.

Demand from one of many potential customers for directional drilling sleeves in a matter of months has been equivalent to the total turnover for 2024. The searches I’ve done show nothing that can compete with Hardide coated sleeves in keeping the drill in the ground for longer so I’m optimistic that Hardide is breaking into a huge market.

With the stock now on a forecast year end PE of only 10 it looks like it needs a framework agreement or initial production orders from another service provider for this to be reflected in the share price.