Member Info for Akhtar234

Basing a valuation on the share price here is pointless it’s not a revenue generating business. What it is , an explorer that own assets in metals that will be in high demand due to the move to EV and infrastructure spending.

If you think AA will offer a small increase they know they will be rebuffed and would have done it already they could have offered 10p a long time ago and swallow it up. I think it’s not easy like that and they need to value what they potentially see, also agree 6 months was too generous. Should have kept to 3 months. We then talk to other majors or know we go it alone.
I assume with the ceo links to AA and their recent results they are the perfect partners they now need to Make an offer that is accretive or go elsewhere

We should be getting an offer before the Allotted time , won’t take them that long have had 2 months already to build in different models based on last year due diligence. They have reported to the market on last year performance now they can get on with this. Tbh I am surprised they are waiting that long as they are not the only suitors interested and they have the ability to swallow Arcm if they wanted to.

People talk about a Jv I don’t mind I want maximum return if it is a buy out and we get shares as part of the consideration which actually can be done and not impacting Anglo at all we could see real value.

What I don’t understand how much have we explored and how much copper we have assessed. Are Anglo still taking. Punt ? As I thought all the details from last year they are evaluating how much copper we have and it appears a lot but we really are sitting on a lot more which needs further digging.

Basically AA needs to give us an offer we can’t refuse or we go elsewhere or do it by ourselves . I really think these guys are smart to get agreement to fund a small mine with debt, which is cheap at the moment compared to historics.

Who thinks an offer will land in March,/April?

Due Dillingence has happened already they had 6 months at least last year. it’s now discussions on the terms of a deal and we have told them we have others waiting or have a route to free cash flow which is the game changer.

AA rising share price and lower debt they can buy us out easily and not make a dent, they need to make a good deal for their shareholders but also find that balance to win us over.

Hi apr , got you. Sorry I’m trying to value the whole business let’s see there is upside we all know let’s hope we get a good deal if not happy for a no deal and we talk with others or go it alone.

GLA

Apr think your calcs are too conservative

I guess why would we need a JV or an acquisition if after this weeks interview we have a route of debt funding to start a small scale mine.

The valuation you said about 30m fcf adding 80 to 100m is too conservative need to look at the sim of the parts and if we say that is pure profit and using a multiple of 14 which is light for a fast growing business we should be

14 * 30 *0.7 = $300m around £200m if the pound keeps appreciating also with that fcf we will be adding to the balance sheet so with free cash do they make more acquisitions , buybacks, dividends or further invest.

Truth is we have a strong position any deal with a major helps us rise further also AA can offer a deal for full takeover and issue shares there share price has been rising it would make a small dent.

So the question is what will it take for us to allow AA to be part of the party? And if they can match it.

Anyone talking about 200m I understand and don’t need to be Carried away but with most investors my view has changed that we can start producing ourselves with no capital dilution.

We still have Casa payments but don’t need for cash purposes that question was asked without it we are fully funded to end of 2022.

I don’t know why an offer is taking so long , if AA don’t come up with a number that we can’t refuse and soon we can talk to others or go alone .

Think NVS talked of a range between 20 to 40p , I think if AA offers 20p why would we take it if we have a route to go alone.

We are trying to value the whole of the company which is hard as we need to know the copper and cobalt reserves, but using their words we have multiple tier1 assets.

AA are looking at both zamasort and Zaco a and we have c70% on both as you mention to me 20p is great but cheap wouldn’t entertain a deal at that price.

Some of the valuations are being too simple

The touted 50m turnover is a small basis to get us going , I assume we have enough copper at that rate for 50 years at least. We are still exploring and finding more copper.

The above mine is to demonstrate that we can go along and say 20m fcf and using a multiple of 14 -18 times the value is 280-360 but that is basic.
Compare to greatland that was once valued 1.2bn not saying to be carried away but we have great assets and a lot of it.

AA brought in will look at securing a great deal but this week has proved they need us more than we need them. If this is a commodity bull run and I prefer average rates we could be valued higher 20p values us around 200m and that is short I think we are at least at the 400m level

Ferdie what you smoking ?

RC the oilers didn’t drop on dividends it was the collapse in the oil price , also the share price fall recently is assuming. Cut is coming.

Also the articles are stating the yield is high compared to others look, funds can’t move to many other stocks as others have cut dividends

Article basically says the dividend yield is high, which it is as the share price has fallen and they think the share price drop from the last year is reflecting a cut in the future.

Personally a small cut wouldnt be bad long term, yes the share price would drop a bit more, but it will recover if they make stronger acquisitions and build on the pipeline. But compare to Astra who have kept a dividend even when they are not as strongly covered as Glaxo and there share price has risen a lot more than GSK.

They are targetting 10 blockbuster deals, ok the cancer one flopped but its use could still be beneficial just wont be in the $1bn revenue brand in a few years.

Direct to seller is key, in the past Amazon have used to copy goods and sell as their own they can do it. Think Amazon needs to be looked at it has too much control and anti competitive.
But I admit I liked using Amazon because of the ease of search and shopping. So I am hypocritical here

Danl tech is important not just the clothing side, Ocado disrupted deliveries and now others using there tech

I said a couple of weeks ago I thought they would look
To buy the other brands other than top man looks like I was right, just lost patience and sold up here.

It’s a good move as the price being quoted appears to be risk free and there are markers for these.

As I said technology is where boohoo needs to improve on and could see that happening now. Don’t need anymore acquisitions in the foreseeable future.

Share the article both stepping up I have only seen that sanofi are.

Good acquisition the price is cheap and the brands you are getting is worth it. Yes I sold out at frustration and glad this has risen to holders, but didn’t see them buying Debenhams brand really good move. Still a lot of cash left might they buy one more doesn’t need to be top shop or top man , burton might not be bad for the right price.

Amazing Next was a frontrunner backed by a PE and has backed out, if Boohoo buys and at a good price will serve the company well for years.

Nope, those businesses has been impacted by the low oil price environment and there earnings have fallen off a cliff, if dividend is cut yes it could possibly impact the share price temporarily, but looking at the dividend cover it is ok for now, we dont need to borrow.

Also the spinning of the businesses will bring value to shareholders, not sure what it will mean will we own a percentage of both as shareholders? you have read the Consumer healthcare will be £0.5bn leaner from 2022 with 25% of that reinvested?

Banking is very different, they have to hold capital to absorb shocks in the financial systems also with retail banks, low interest environment is impacting them. If interest rates rise so do banks profitability, but with so much debt and one crisis to another rates have been artificially low for a long time, we should have seen rates get back to a higher level and they havent and with recent cuts it is impacting them. Investment banks are different animals and make there money from trading and serving big businesses, why you see someone like Goldman make money during this pandemic.

The separation of the business is good as they believe it will create more value for shareholders spinning off, also the cost synergies will help with reinvesting and partnering with Pfizer to spin out is a smart move, Pharmas will always be around hence a defensive stock, GSK pipeline and R&D hasnt been great but the new Board have noticed this and are starting to invest. If the dividend is cut its not a bad thing as the current yield is c6% most organisations have cut or stopped dividends, dont think GSK need to but if they do to reinvest it wont be a bad idea, but they are still highly profitable and the dividend cover has been of the range of 1 to 2. Compare this to Astra who do not have enough coverage yet they are still paying highly.

For me this 2% online sales tax changes things and hence my reason to still be invested here for now.