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I agree, PMO is growing and did brilliantly after 2016. The oil price needs to settle down, but acquisitions will pay off.
The US begged Opec + to intervene and they have alongside the group outside. Shale being able to trade at $40 is a joke, they dont make money, they havent been profitable, they have been allowed to stay afloat from higher oil price, low debt costs and private equity. Most of the sweet spots drilling land has already been drilled, easy to switch back on those that were closed, but drilling new wells not so easy.
You seen the lay offs by the fracking crews?
How much investment has been taken off that will cause an oil spike in the next few years?
None of the brokers are ever right, they have positions and are protecting themselves.
Economy restart has helped and is quicker than most expected. Oil will retrace and PMO as previously will go down a little. but trend is higher if oil stays at these levels or move higher. Oil hitting $50 is the target, but will be harder to crack at the moment, until demand numbers warrant it.
A lot of supply coming off has helped.
Hi All,
Havent posted in a while and a lot of people speculating on impact of ARCM shares?
Positives,
1) Have brought our biggest/or one of our biggest shorted investors to be fully on board.
2) they have bought some equity to help fund the deal, which is a positive and they would be crazy to short again.
The cash upfront of the deal has helped and getting an asset that will be creative don't look at this as PMO pre acq.
Sometimes a rights issue help strengthen a company look at OTB.
Oil in high 30's low 40's now helps the case, PMO breakeven was $32 this year.
This will be up and down, but long term this will go up if oil rises back to levels that help deleverage.
Well the recapitalisation pretty much went into the construction business, and the margins are so poor i doubt they are making any money on it at all. The business is better off re routing working capital on those areas that generate a higher return. The company is susceptible to big losses on contracts poorly delivered or financially structured badly.
I do not get your last point if there is no money to be made (and i suspect they are losing money on construction) why pursue, coming out of contracts will be tricky and legal implications i suspect, might be easier for those that have not started yet, but in progress, they may have to finish.
It is beggars belief the directors were allowed to take such big salaries last year on poor performance, yes the business is profitable but you are rewarded significantly for keeping a tight ship and growing profitability, which they have not done, to receive c50% increase in remuneration is outrageous.
No reason seeing it go bust unless the exits from construction are awful, but they have a cash generative business on the home building, so a rights issue may happen, but know one knows and debt doesnt look too bad and is manageable depending on the review of the construction business.
They took on too much than they could chew but in fairness with Carillion collapse they took a bit of a hit no fault of their own, they have plenty of scope to continue improving margins on the house building which could have a big impact.
Forget construction, the risk reward over the years has proved it is not worth it, unless bidders stop low balling and going into contracts that are not sustainable.
I actually think they will be stronger coming out of construction (or continuing at a far lower level) the margins are poor and the size of the deals could create big losses which are not needed, removing construction business is a big positive (Look at slide 13 -https://www.gallifordtry.co.uk/~/media/Files/G/GallifordTry/presentation/2019/half-year-results-2019-presentation.pdf)
They are better off improving margins on the existing business and buying land stock, possibly becoming financially stronger and possibly acquire smaller cash strapped developers businesses)
I'm waiting to see full impact of construction business exit, as it would appear they are still trying to finalise the legality and cost impacts, this will be a temporary.
How was the 15p Christmas party and how come we were not invited you did book the hall a very long time ago
Geo correct but those who have cash on the side will find it easier, but not to say PMO wont like you said those EON assets were brilliant.
Alot of players looking to come in are PE or PE backed businesses.
Fair point, but getting Sea lion to production for PMO might not be the best strategy if that is your only asset there, you are better off selling an unknown and buying more what you do.
PMO is not going to tank but it may drift down a little, but that could be down to a number of things.
I recently mentioned on twitter, PMO may offer better gains but also losses, but as a company doesnt come anywhere close to Tullow.
GLA, long term this will go higher and could do in the mid term, i see no benefit of buying more catcher unless there strategy is to be a north sea player, which is not the most attractive, but if it means you can find more cost savings by being a bigger player in a smaller pond, so be it.
Depend on
1) how much has been de risked
2) How much it will cost t o get to production
3) lifetime total costs breakeven price.
They talked about LAT AM that is also all the exploration licenses and possibly sealion.
Just read they are also going to pump £100m into the business
I feel sorry for you guys to see another criminal deal, you can do three things ,
accept ,
Reject, Wait for a counter offer or rival offer
Get a consortium together and buy the business ( but check how much debt comes with it as you willbe taking that on also)
Presto you might aswell share those details of the venue you had already booked, we might aswell enjoy it.
Can you share details please
Please don’t pump your other investments on this board, just keep it with satoshipay on here please.
Yeah Meinhard has absolutely done a hash job
*do not
Please promote other investments not on this board please, this is only about blu let’s stick to that. Meinhard has done a hash job on the business, good technologist I hope he recognises this. I guess your 15p party is no longer happening lol
Debt levels are different to back then, but going in the right direction.
North sea they have next to nothing there and will eventually exit.
Guyana they have not found any oil yet.
Uganda should be up in 2 - 3 years, personally the way the deal has gone they should get better terms now, been 2 years waiting for closure on this and progress.
Kenya they could self fund themselves, but it will slow down debt repayment and could add to debt. Depending on price of oil.
Ivory coast I am hoping can be just as good to Tullow as Ghana has been.
Ghana will pump more and if they can find more in the blocks it will be great for that business.