Member Info for aimtitan

Told you, LNG doing very well!!

The same sh it you were smoking when you bought this at £3. Only difference is it's January sales and boy this is a heavy discount

The reason why this tanked is the old CEO didn't do anything to protect itself from a crash in commodity prices, thus continuing to overlook efficiency, not competing with smaller brands like Ovo or octopus, and paying dividends when we shouldn't have.

Irony is oshea has done all of these things in a short time, what was unexpected is the rise in gas prices due to supply shrinkage. The current price of gas is the sake as 2014, where the company had a £3 share price.

The Achilles heel was our oil and gas exploration business (spirit energy), funnily that's our strength now as we can extract at low prices and sell at huge profit domestically.

The people who bought at £2+ will also probably be saying 50p! Really!
I say £2 because if you compare BG peers, you get sector level pricing. Then you ask yourself what reasons are enough for BG to be written down by £1.50. What you will find is the only reason was the price of gas tanking. What people don't understand is Gas prices are regionally priced similar to oil (Brent, wti etc). UK GAS has risen 600% from its lows, Europe and Asia even higher. Intact there's no LNG cargo arriving in the uk for weeks as they have been diverted. Infact there is a national grid warning out
https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/101988-uk-natural-gas-prices-hit-winter-record-as-coal-power-makes-up-deficit-as-lng-drawn-to-north-asia

1. UK NB Gas prices have risen 600% due to cold front in Asia driving prices up
https://www.reuters.com/quote/NGLNMc1
2.Writedown reversal. Centrica applied a write down of gas assets for $1.4bn When gas prices crashed to £20. They now sit at £60+
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/centrica-profit-dives-gas-glut-forces-1-billion-pound-charge
3. Cash Sell. DIRECT ENERGY $3.6bn
4. Natural reduction in Pension deficit. The market has risen to a new high where BG pensions have a 35%+ equity exposure
5. Evolve Brand. Low cost tariffs to compete with fintech suppliers
6. A significant overhaul of operational costs including redefining hr contracts

These are all reasons why this stock is easily inline with its peers and worth £2

1. UK NB Gas prices have risen 600% due to cold front in Asia driving prices up
https://www.reuters.com/quote/NGLNMc1
2.Writedown reversal. Centrica applied a write down of gas assets for $1.4bn When gas prices crashed to £20. They now sit at £60+
3. Cash Sell. DIRECT ENERGY $3.6bn
4. Natural reduction in Pension deficit. The market has risen to a new high where BG pensions have a 35%+ equity exposure
5. Evolve Brand. Low cost tariffs to compete with fintech suppliers
6. A significant overhaul of operational costs including redefining hr contracts

These are all reasons why this stock is easily inline with its peers and worth £2

Jed
That's US gas, centrica observes UK gas. Asian prices are even higher

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/centrica-profit-dives-gas-glut-forces-1-billion-pound-charge

Remember this when gas prices tumbled from 40 to 10.

Well UK gas is at 60.69 now

Can pigs fly?

Don't worry we have the beast from the East on our side. At the least the sp should revert to jan levels in the short term

https://www.centrica.com/media/4462/centrica-proposed-sale-of-direct-energy.pdf

Roughly £440m in cash to pension with letter of credit for £745m.

The remainder can go wherever!

Aspers is the most active uninvested person here.

One should know directors involved or privy to non public information cannot deal the stock as it would be insider trading.

This will ride up to £1 easily as liability is supported. It doesn't need to plug the pension hole as that's well managed. If it wasn't then we would be talking here would we. Am sure the directors know new asset purchase will make that money work better. Congrats all for picking this up so cheap, don't get these opportunities often.

There is a polar vortex shift which has been driving colder weather. Asia gas prices the highest they've ever been. Huge amount of cash at 7x multiple. This in the short term will easily break 80p. Long term (12months) should be at around 140p.

Every one please leave your heaters on, we need this haha

Aspers, selling of an asset isn't a bad thing. Take the American sale, they've sold at asset on a forward valuation of 7x. Now they can use that money to buy more market trending assets like solar/wind farms as are it's peers. This would give the investment a further 8x growth value in itself.

Everything has the right 'value'. Maybe at the price you purchased it was over valued. However the current price is 20% of what your purchased at which is way below value. Am guessing because you lost here, no price is right for you.

No1 rule of investing: don't be emotionally attached to your investments. Investing with your hormones can never be rational.

This had a market cap of £300m pre covid.
Pre dilution, this had a market cap of £150m (57p) and I expected it to return to roughly £250m (95p) provided no further lockdowns and no holiday restrictions.

This is now trading at a market cap of £280m after a dilution, with a lockdown with no end in sight plus international travel band. This equity raises is a total theft of the upside that was left in this.

We know earnings are Definately going to suffer due to corona and more so during peak buying season at Christmas and summer due to additional lockdown. Personally applying a 20% haircut to earnings, I expect this share to fall to roughly the 42p mark. For that reason I have finally sold out my last remaining shares. Good luck

Aspers mate, come on lad, youve been talking about this loss for weeks now. I understand it's painful, but you lost under the old brigade who couldn't make difficult decisions. New ceo and a new vision is what this needed. Dont cry over spilt milk.

Incorrect, a small portion per year is allocated to pension. The remainder is for a shopping spree

Drooling about what I could buy...
New wind farm
May be a solar farm
Perhaps a sprinkle of dividends
Maybe even expand my hydrogen initiative

The possibilities!!!
Are with a forward multiple of 10x

To raise capital via an equity raises to only pay it back as dividends means the big boys got shares at a discount, thus kind of proves that this is a stealth raid. They could have easily gone to the bond market and raised the money at very low interest rates if they wanted too. But they raised it via equity and the cost that dilutes everyone

I don't mean to step on anyones toes here but this is simply my opinion.

The p/e and therefore the share price is based on the forward value of the stock, and in this case roughly 6x mark. By diluting the stock we essentially push the P/E to around 10x as earnings per share reduce significantly.

Now normally I would be all for equity raises for capital provided the cash raised is used to develop the business to increase earnings and justify the new forward p/e.

However, in this case majority of the cash is used to write down debt with a small portion for platform development which is the more important part that drives earnings.

Therefore, I can only see this as an equity raid, as most of the money raised is not used to benefit the earnings in the long term but to serve short term debt.