Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I think there is a serious issue for Avacta to get samples. The govenernment shamefully didn't seem to help out on the Condor program and wasn't helping Avacta with the LFT hence Spain. From what I recall the plan had been for a great sample size but at the same time the market was clammering for news on the LFT results. NOt an easy place for the CEO to be in
I dont actually think that we are going back to £1. We have a product. There is value in Affimers which is clear and will help the future diagnostic pipeline. However, it gets frustrating to read people that are completely happy with the share price and even delighted at the top-up opportunity that not selling in bulk is presenting. I think we have all been a little naive to think that having the best product will result in the best sales. Hopefully, Al has realised this now and is correcting it.
Morning Sleepy Dave. DO you envisage a problem though currentyly/a difficulty for Avacta in that until they can confirm large orders then the manufacturers may not be incentivised to engage in TT. For me I want a government contract as i believe it will then produce a cascade of orders and open previously shut doors. I would expect that the home market is always going to be easier to penetrate than Europe. ALso the greater the market the greater the sales team required. Europe will not be easy to have access to when their presence there is non existent currently.
There is a case to be made though that until phase 1 results come through it is hard to attach such a substantial value to Avacta. 40p on just the cancer and then 50m for the cash raise. It is impossible to argue convincingly that this share price can be maintained currently on cancer alone. I think it is generous to value cancer at £1 which leaves the value of the diagnostics. Diagnostics are worth a decent chunk but on the condition that they have a product out en mass that proves up the affimer. That then has a diagnostic value that can be attached in the much higher multiples. Holding for the cancer is fine at lower prices. Up here we need LFT numbers
It does. THe avacta detail is excellent. However, to the untrained eye, the saliva test above it at 100% sens and spec would appear the better test when I suspect it is actually crap. Avacta needs to figure out how they can get the point across that these other tests are average at best and that the increased sensitivity at infectious levels is important.
Gemstar we are not selling to the UK but to Europe where the tests are not given away free. We could be selling to them but we need to break into their established markets now. It is unfortunate timing that we are coming to market when the best test isn't deemed necessary as cases are falling with summer and increased outdoor activities. WInter will bring a need for the best but we will have to see if that is still us by then as other tests may have been improved with some of the cash they've been printing
Google took off when they employed Eric Schmidt rather than leaving the running of the company to 2 tech wizards. A hard nosed CEO would have sniffed out where the monetary opportunity was and made sure that was targeted from day one. Perfect test no. Fast selling and in bulk yes.
Surely no other test has confirmed the Indian variant yet either though so we could happily be selling I would think. I think it is a case that we don't have enough produce current to guarantee supply and people are making the call of a lesser test that is cheap but can be taken twice would give as good a result. It just wouldn't be AN delivery. I see the AN selling point only being for home use though. Professionals don't care how they administer it
Hey covidopportunist, I took that to mean that the escalation from 5-30m would be govt dependent in the UK. HE has 5m but if he wants to increase that he needs the govt to help out. NOt sure it means they already have govt assistance
I suspect Conifer were also aware as to how long it seemed to be taking and the new timeframes. COuldnt understand the abuse you took just for posting what you thought may be useful information for people. I added it to my cons column her as a possibility. ALl these bit can add up to help make decisions. Same as when sticky got that email reply. Regardless of whether you approved of his methods it was the information itself that got slated at the time. People on these boards need to be a little more open minded
Didn't he say though that this distribution deal would only be for small enterprises as Avacta were targeting the larger ones themselves to keep more margin. Not expecting many sales from this deal today. What sales and marketing apparatus do avacta have in house? This is why I still want the govt test. It will give credibility and a foot in the door to sell to bif corporates after govt stops funding
Exactly. The assumption before the presentation was demand outstripping supply. Wasnt quite the feeling I got from AS today. MArgin is taking a hit as well if he want to compete. He may state that he expects €1-2 but that may get squeezed again. I am left wondering why he called this meeting though. I wonder if he expected bigger news to have been announced and then thought cancelling would poor for the share price
Yep. The concern is that until you get the orders you cant tie-down supply and without supply, you cant tie down those larger orders. What you're left with I suspect is the need for Affimers to be able to demonstrate superiority. Their ability to catch new variants is the last one they have. Essentially need Covid to mutate significantly so that avacta can update their test quicker than anyone else. However, this would render vaccines useless as well and a disaster no one wants to see
Come on G Man111. SUrely you don't think that Alastair has delivered on timelines, promises or volume suggestions regarding LFT market for Avacta. If we only listened to the positive spin then you'd have a lot of blinkered investors that would never sell regardless. Look at the abuse Robbo took when he is clearly a bullish holder wanting the best but dared to post something about Avacta seemingly struggling to sign up sales. As soo as someone post a false statement then hammer them. If they simply post an opposing view based on their interpretation of the facts then read it objectively and see if there is any merit. You'll do much better long term that way. We can all become too blinkered in our investments.
Quick question. I know that Medusa has exclusivity regarding supplying the Avacta to home users and jointly to businesses. However, do Avacta have exclusivity regarding Medusa only being allowed to supply the Avacta antigen test? Can you sell a different one? Not been able to find the details for that.
It is but traders will have wanted more production sooner I suspect. Big difference between 5m and 30m. Clarification of govt contract then opens up the additional manufacturing in the short term. Longer-term the often muted overseas supply can be accessed and Abington can get their new capacity online
Rather than a buy do we not think that it was a sell order getting filled which explained why so many buys yesterday still seemed to cause a drop in price? That size takes a hell of a lot to fill and I don't see there has been enough selling to do the business