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Looking at it, he moved in Nov 2018, almost 3 years ago. The reports I have read are the last 6-12 months (all available in the public domain). They had an approx ~£2 outlook initially and then have progressively upgraded over roughly the last 12 months. There have been approx 3-4 upgrades over that period. Current forecast just north of £6, with Finn Cap in at c. £5 and Arden at £7.
Abatt has highlighted the analysts covering JOG, but to the best of my knowledge the house brokers are Arden, and Finn cap (who supported and executed the latest fund raise). WHI are not a house broker as far as I know
Have a read, there is some interesting content which I imagine they are distributing to a wide reader pool. Nothing particularly new, but definitely increasing in positivity and reenforcing a number of key elements that we often discuss in this forum
As with all things DYOR, but worth a read IMHO
Have a read of the WH Ireland perspective (on research tree, free to read).
They have increased positivity following today's update, and are now highlighting JOG as a clear 'winner'. They are normally upbeat on JOG, but this has gone up a gear IMHO.
WHI's view is that the next announcement will be a broader one, which outlines how this fits together with the other players in the NS (presumably with farm-out news).
I think this is imminently about to get very very interesting .....
Ask yourself the question - why the hell would there be this level of stakeholder interest if this is a non runner... it makes no sense, and others wouldn't engage.
What makes a lot of sense is that this is gaining momentum .. and being hooked into broader plans with other players.. with a farm-out announcement on the relative near term horizon..
All IMHO/DYOR
3 things really standout to me : *Significant stakeholder interest in working collaboratively to enable the GBA Development to become an integral part of an area-wide electrification project*Such collaboration could materially reduce capex and opex through shared investment, thereby further enhancing the economics of our planned GBA Development.*As such, JOG has furthered engagement in multi-party conversations on the topic of electrification with the UK's Oil and Gas Authority, oil and gas industry parties and potential third-party funding providers (infrastructure funding businesses).Do you seriously think that this would be happening if interested parties thought JOG wouldn't achieve a farm-out. My read on this, is that prospects are improving ... not worsening. Arden view is farmout probable by end 2021.I definitely support PC01's view here. Interesting few months ahead. AIMO / DYOR
There are multiple ways you can look at this. If COP 26 results in an acceleration with the UK following Denmark and Norway i.e. banning future licence issue - Jog looks very attractive. It's also taking a responsible approach to ESG to service demand, rather than rely on imports. Whilst there may not be a commitment to a farmout pre end September, I think it's reasonable to assume that they may equally be able to say that they are engaged in serous talks with multiple parties with conclusion in Q4. If anything I now think this is now more likely.IMHO / DYOR
Good note Abatt. It’s a tricky one for them. Do you include it at the start of the farm out? It makes the numbers look bigger…. Or do you discard it. Maybe they thought it might have been of interest to one of the players? Who knows? It wasn’t in P1,P2 or P3 so they clearly never felt it important. Any way I don’t see this as material. It’s August, the market is always quiet. They said 4-8 months in March so somewhere between July and November (AB says it in the proactive interview). For those of you who haven’t, have a read of the WH Ireland note on research tree.. I can’t remember the last time I saw a note written with that level of conviction that isn’t the house broker. They clearly think this is going to happen… !!! I suspect the money months are September, October and November. There was guidance about ignoring the talk down over the summer as well. What is clear is that gaining access to conventional decent oil assets in the NS is only going to get harder and short term demand (say between 2025-2030) is likely to go up. From my perspective nothing has changed.. in 2-3 months I think we will be a lot clearer… in the meanwhile… read the note (it’s on research tree).
As always AIMHO / DYOR - but I am definitely staying put!
Last commitment from the Gov/OGA - March 21
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14200029/uk-draws-up-north-sea-deal-but-with-future-licensing-restrictions
I see a lot of positives directionally for JOG, especially with their proposed ESG credentials
DYOR / AIMO
My add to this would be that 'time' is important. PC01 often mentions, as do other commentators that an oil supply crunch may well be impending in the 2025-2030 period. The likelihood of someone sitting it out, waiting for the licences to be surrendered and then hoping they can access them (given the ESG agenda for the sector) is slim. It will add years to the development time, so its now or never in my mind. Equally though if there was a buyout now I am not sure it will be a huge number either right now, so I suspect the right farmout with a partner (or partners) remains the best option.
The COP event could go a number of ways, including a halt to any further licensing (this could be favourable to JOG). It could also mandate certain minimum ESG standards onto NS producers, who knows ?? But it could be equally as favourable to JOG's agenda as it could be negative (I see this as pretty balanced TBH). If you subscribe to the thesis that oil is needed for quite some time, then someone has to produce the oil and JOG doing it in 'the right way' firmly committed to an ESG agenda is better than someone else who isnt. There is also the theory that a neighbour needs an enhanced ESG strategy that is more relevant and see the JOG approach as a safeguard to their own production as well, which brings a defensive investment onto the table.
In my mind there is as much working for JOG right now, as there is against it. Only time will tell. You have to take a view.
Are you in Robsroom? Struggling to read whether you really are or you are not given your commentary .. ? If you are, then please share why..
AIMO/DYOR
Same sentiment here as well Dick On a related note, the below is worth a read. Note the advisor, the descriptor given to the project, the size of their dealmaking on assets, and the Ithaca link ..https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/337333/rosalie-chadwick/
Re-listened to his Proactive Podcast (I think it was May) and AB says 4-8 months for the F/O We must have just cleared the 4 month mark (I think they formally confirmed the launch when they responded to the media speculation on 11th March) .. Most analysts seem to indicate end Q3 so end September....
Onwards.....
https://www.ft.com/content/4dee7080-3a1b-479f-a50c-c3641c82c142
Worth a read
In summary - $100 dollar oil highly probable in near future, but more relevantly a projected oil supply gap between 2025 and 2030 due to the massive cut in capital spending.. oil demand not expected to fall rapidly until 2040 onwards. Clearly speculative, but a very interesting set of conditions for JOG
PC01, hats off to you on predicting this
https://on.ft.com/35lYU9M
Thanks for sharing Dick, and I'm glad you are ok health wise! That sounds like an improving situation, which I'm pleased about. I'm also encouraged you have considered the farm-out view through a different lens, as this feels the most probable outcome IMHO. Whilst I see the economic logic for us in a buyout, I struggled to find a precedent on this kind of scenario (ahead of a farm-out) that I liked the look of from a shareholder's perspective. Jog often reference partner(s) in their narrative, so I suspect this aligns with their thoughts and that of the brokers covering this. The area hub logic also feels sensible regarding attracting potential partners, as to some degree it mitigates risk and definitely brings the prospects into play (later on) alongside the resources of others. Add that to a well thought through ESG approach and this may well significantly improve Jogs chances (and simultaneously all of ours).
Existing producers who are off pace ESG wise (and have no means to catch up) may well favour Jogs hub as an efficient way of future proofing monetisation of their own resources..
Time will tell, but coupled with the update last week and the supporting rhetoric this looks increasingly more positive
IMHO / DYOR
Stay safe and keep well.
DU - question for you. I know you've taken a lengthy stare at the economics of the farm out and feel it wont work on highly attractive economic terms for LTH based on recent posts. Have you got any thoughts / points of reference for assets sale in the last few years that are similar to JOGs? I know the recent macro environment makes this hard to benchmark.. Just curious for your view
DYOR, etc