The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Worth a read and further positive emphasis …
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/expert-view-natwest-barclays-jersey-oil-and-gas-knights-group-and-lok-nstore/a1576085#i=4
https://www.oedigital.com/news/491592-uk-29-bids-filed-for-1-37m-offshore-platform-electrification-competition
Ignore the competition, its more the general direction of travel and the push to 'get on with things' Further positive reenforcement for JOG IMHO
What’s your theory on the person or people who have just paid £1.5m for the shares @ £1.40 then? Are you saying you think they’ve been had ? Technically they’re about to take a £300k+ hit if your theory is correct and it hits £1.10…
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/351970/oga-energy-transition-scott-robertson/
Worth a read - Essentially the the 2 hot topics are : i) carbon capture and ii) electrification
As a reminder : the transition deal between the North Sea industry and government sets early reductions in offshore production emissions of 10% by 2025; 25% by 2027; and 50% by 2030, against a 2018 baseline, to meet the sector’s aim of creating a net zero basin by 2050.
In summary the industry has to make changes, new licences attract increasingly tougher ESG criteria, JOG is at the Vanguard of this (not specifically mentioned in this article, but in the last one)
The clear point of all of this, is that Jog is increasingly well placed when you consider i) the regulator drive to transform this and ii) the beneficial commodity pricing
Latest from IC - published 4 hours ago
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/09/27/bargain-shares-profit-from-the-energy-crisis/
If this isnt written with conviction, then I dont know what is......
DYOR/IMHO
Interestingly JOG have just posted this on their twitter feed...
https://www.ft.com/content/f9535e7d-8a44-4cd6-bc08-9b255a4d9883
Ball park I think Finncap are just sub £5, Arden at £7 and WHI around £6. They are all using different risk factors as well, so hard to compare. At a headline level the range is ~£5-£7
Agree with the point around research. I don't take the forecasts are anything other than directional - they have all reenforced their previous forecasts and interpreted todays commentary as largely positive.
IMHO/DYOR
Interesting... the narrative definitely is starting to change
Mindset wise as a 'farminee' you go from... 'this is a big capital project to fund up front (albeit with very promising returns)' into 'well we need to electrifiy our patch so we might as well do a deal with them and hook this in.. especially as new conventional assets are going to be very hard to come by...
I think the game is changing slightly in Jogs favour...
I've always been on the bus (last few years anyway), but directionally the environment feels increasingly more favourable to Jog
IMHO/DYOR
Arden positive, optimistic about year end deal, holding price target at £7 - generally enthused about language shifts. Reference to optionality of a broader consortium of partners as a result of GBA location and approach to electrification (i.e. different elements being funded by different partners).
Thought the WHI note read well, clearly a robust underlying confidence there. Clearly their view is that if you're electrifying the area, then why wouldn't you hook the GBA in (its in the middle of it).... In my view this is a really interesting point as the dynamics start to change..
Lots of positives in my view (and positive reenforcement on what we already knew)... Interesting few months ahead. Based on the approach, the broker updates and the general state of commodity pricing I am optimistic about this..
DYOR/IMHO
Looks like interest in conventional assets is rising....
Ithaca has agreed to acquire the North Sea assets of Marubeni in a $1billion deal, according to a news report.
Note the Ithaca connection..
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/349631/ithaca-marubeni-north-sea-deal/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20Daily%20Newsletter%20Resend&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter
DYOR
Add all of that to the climate check on future licensing, and the lack of conventional assets + Jogs drill ready prospects (on licences they already hold) - and this starts to look increasingly like a total no brainer
IMHO/DYOR
Interesting crowd... note Repsol speaking ...
Reuters Events invites you to join our hour-long discussion Oil & Gas Majors in Hydrogen (15:00 CET / 9:00 – 10:00 EST, 22nd September) as we explore:
Why energy majors are betting big on hydrogen, with gigawatt-scale announcements
Focus on the colours of hydrogen
Collaboration and support needed by energy majors to develop hydrogen ready infrastructure
Outlining the business case and where energy majors see the demand for hydrogen
Cutting costs and addressing the ‘greenwashing’ challenge
Ask the experts, energy majors and experts discussing the topic include:
Tomas Malango, Hydrogen Director, Repsol
Shirley Oliveira, Vice President – Hydrogen and CCUS advisory services, BP
Henrik Solgaard Andersen, Vice President - Low Carbon Technologies, Equinor
Moderator: Simon Ellis, Head of Global Gas Analytics, ICIS
This is an extract from an article written in March 2021. It makes specific reference the 'climate compatibility checkpoint' in relation to the 'North Sea Transition' deal penned earlier this year . The noteworthy piece is the 25% emissions cut required by 2027 (10% by 2025). Whilst I imagine 10% could be done through re-engineering and some refinement (I am not an expert here), you would imagine that 25% is a different ball game and requires something much more fundamental.
I suspect this is the bit driving the electrification timeline and the growing and significant interest from 'neighbouring' stakeholders.
The more players, the better the efficiency, the better the efficiency the more attractive JOG gets (as they have commented re: opex and capex benefit in the recent release). It may further explain the timing of the first oil delay.. Others will want electrification on stream before 2027
.... and JOG are, at least in part, leading the charge, backed up by the OGA who are effectively waving a flag at industry to tell them they are behind JOG...
At least that's my take on it.....
Watch this space......
DYOR/IMHO
The sector will face targets to reduce emissions by 10% by 2025 and 25% by 2027 and has committed to cut emissions by 50% by 2030.
https://www.insider.co.uk/news/uk-government-criticised-over-plans-23784670
The OGA are allowing a minnow to participate in, and even part facilitate with broader stakeholders, a critical electrification strategy for the north sea which the OGA are heavily backing and indeed from their own commentary believe the Norths Sea's future is dependent on. The head of the OGA is now calling JOG out alongside Shell and BP + IOG in their market facing commentary (see last article link on previous post)
We know from history the JOG share price drifts on no / unclear news. We also know, from history, that it catapults forward on positive news.
The question I have for this forum (for those in a calm, sensible mode) is do we seriously think that the OGA are going to be so pro JOG if they think it even remotely likely that they will fail..
The endorsement simply doesn't make sense unless they believe firmly that JOG will achieve a successful farm out .... Whilst I am not underplaying the herculean task that JOG are clearly undertaking, you sense both the industry regulating body (OGA) and the brokers (one seemingly 'non-house') all are convinced that they will succeed.
Everyone will clearly make their own minds up... but as you're doing so give that point some serious thought..
DYOR/IMHO
https://www.energyvoice.com/events/offshore-europe/348956/oga-chief-frustrated-mucking-around-disputes-climate-emergency/
Hidden behind a paywall, but the essence of it if you cant read it is that the OGA are publicly highlighting JOG as one of only four companies (named in the print) who are leading necessary change in the industry with regard to much needed ESG measures.
There are a lot of positives here including the OGA appearing VERY supportive (I suspect that is worth a great deal with potential farminees), and as far as I am concerned the thesis that I bought into (that JOG will find a funding partner and the GBA will be developed, ultimately by someone) stands. I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest otherwise.
AIMO/DYOR
Hey Abatt. I imagine most LTH are sitting tight (and waiting for the key decision that many of us believe will happen). AB indicated anywhere between July and year end (4-8 months)... I know it's painful
Personally (I can only speak for myself) I take comfort from the language used in the recent release, the ongoing stakeholder engagement (one assumes industry professionals clearly think a farm-out is possible/probable hence the engagement on the regional plan) and the fact whilst they have-phased key project dates they have not re-phased/indicated a delay to the farm-out timing which was a conscious choice one assumes (they had a golden opportunity to do this when they communicated earlier this week).
I also take some comfort from the analyst rhetoric (not the forecasts), but the language used as well and the increasing positivity. The Arden one is publicly available too
As PC01 said this feels like PI's selling ... That would be my read too for what its worth.
From my side I am sitting tight, in my view the odds are strengthening, not weakening
IMHO/DYOR
I think PC01 is right...
https://www.ft.com/content/e7f2cd44-cb2e-4024-bd75-93fc43d9edd3