Member Info for afbouer

Rambler Metals and Mining
Little Deer Complex This is a very valuable asset
A resource not included in the Rambler Metals mine planning yet is the Little Deer and Whalesback mines which have been previously mined. Now called Little Deer Complex
The Canadian Mining Journal April 2012 gives details of the resources and infrastructure of the mines.
Little Deer and Whalesback mines are 140Km from Nugget pond processing plant and 30Km from the Goodyear port facility
Little Deer has a ramp access and has a strike length of 1050m and is open along strike, and is 1000m deep and is open in depth.
Whalesback ore body is 500m on strike and is open and 600m deep and is open
Whalesback has a vertical shaft and is connected to Little Deer by a 1000m drift on the 240 level
A PEA study was carried out in late 2011 based on the Little Deer resource only which showed the resource could be mined profitably.

Mineral Resource PEA 2011 updated 2021

Tonnes Cu Ag Au Co Cu metal Cu Metal
m % g/t g/t % lbs m tonnes m
Indicated 2.029 2.33 4.12 0.13 0.03 1042 4.72
Inferred 5.88 1.78 2.16 0.05 0.02 2329 10.50

My Valuation of the Little Deer Complex excluding credits for Ag, Au, and Co

1800 tpd 355 days, Cu 2% , Extraction 97% , Cu price $US4.3/ lb
Life of mine is 10years plus
Revenue before tax $ US 123m
C1 AIS cost $US 71m
Free cash before tax $ US 52m
Tax 29.9% $US 15m
Free cash post tax $US 37m

NPV @5% after tax $ US 135.4 (PEA 2011 had a published NPV of $ US 86.7)
IRR 21.5% and payback is 3.5years
NPV/share $Us 1

Little Deer Complex. Mine economics, 2010 PEA updated 2021
• The updated Indicated Mineral Resource reflects a 6.5% increase in tonnes and a 4.8% increase in contained copper metal, based on a 1% Cu cut-off;
• The updated Inferred Mineral Resource represents a 47.4% increase in tonnes and a 27.5% increase in contained copper metal.
With the deposits remaining open at depth and along strike, the periphery of the complex will be a focus of future
• The updated Indicated Mineral Resource reflects a 6.5% increase in tonnes and a 4.8% increase in contained copper metal, based on a 1% Cu cut-off;
• The updated Inferred Mineral Resource represents a 47.4% increase in tonnes and a 27.5% increase in contained copper metal.
With the deposits remaining open at depth and along strike, the periphery of the complex will be a focus of future
Table 1: Summary of Little Deer Complex Mineral Resource Estimate At 1.0% Copper Cut-Off

Tonnes Cu Ag Au Co Cu Cu
m % g/t g/t % m lbs m t
Indicated 2.029 2.33 4.12 0.13 0.03 104.2 4.72
Inferred 5.882 1.78 2.16 0.05 0.02 230.9 10.50
I have made a stab at valuing Little Deer complex
Using the updated PEA of 2010, 355 days, 2% cu, extraction 97%, Cu price 4.3 $Us/lb, Cu produced 28.678m lbs per year. C1 costs exclude credits, AISC $us2.49/lb, tonnage mined 1800 tpd,
Payback period is 3.5 years, IRR 21.5%
LOM 10 years plus as deposit is open in depth and strike
Revenue before tax $ U s 123m
C1 Cost of production $ U s 71.41 m
Free cash flow $ U s 52.6 m
Tax estimate 30% $ Us 15.5 m
Free cash flow after tax $Us 37.1 m
NPV@ 5% $U s 135.43m (In the 2010 PEA the NPV@5% was published as $Us 86.7m)
Little Deer Complex is a very valuable asset

Sorry for the garbled print out figures
The Free cash flow per year is Us $ 53.14 m and capital used Us $ 88.4 m, LOM 40 years
NPV Us $ 577m
NPV/ share Us$ 4 or £3
no matter how I look at the mine economics I come to the same conclusion that Rambler metals and mining share price is seriously undervalued, however you should DYOR

Another look at the valuation of Ming Mine
With increased tonnage to 1600 tpd, 20% Sorting, operating for 365 days per year.
Price of Cu taken as $10000/tonne
Resource of 23.445 m tonnes @ 1.79% cu with significant Au and Ag
ROM tonnes mined per year 584000 gives a LOM of 40 years plus
This is a very lucrative mine with a long life

ROM tonnes sorter feed grade Sorting Head Grade Milled days Extraction
1600 tpd 1.79% Cu 20% 2.12%Cu 1350 tpd 365 94%

Annual Annual AISCP tax Annual Annual Annual Annual
Cu metal Price Cu Cu metal Cost Revenue Cost C1 credit Au/Ag Cost total
Tonnes Us $ Lbs Us $/Lb Us$ m Us $ m Us $ m Us $ m
9865.84 10000 21.64m 3 98.19 64.92 21.87 45.05

Annual Annual
Free Cash flow Capital Shares discount Rate Resource mining rate Life of Mine
Us$m Us $ m m % m tonnes tonnes years
53.14 88.4 133.89 7 23.445 584000 40
NPV Shares NPV/share NPV/share
Us$ m m Us $ £
577 133.89 4 3
In my opinion the Ming mine share price is undervalued

My personal Valuation of the Ming Copper/Gold Mine using present day metal prices
Assessing the effect of sorting and a possible mill capacity extension
The AISCPtax I took as 3 $/lb. I have credited the C1 cost with Ag and Au credits
I assume the mine will work 312 days/annum. Extraction I have taken 94% and sorting 20%

Case 1 present situation is 1350 ROM tpd and 1350 tpd milled. Grade 1.79% Cu

Case 2 is with 1600 ROM tpd and 20% sorting and 1350 tpd milled. Grade 2.13%Cu

Case 3 is 2500 ROM tpd with 20% sorting and 2000 tpd milled. Grade 2.25% Cu

The NPV of the three cases and NPV/ share is show in table below
The measured resource is 19.328m tonnes . I have assumed the LOM is 20 years but this will change with tonnage mined and reserve increase with step out drilling. I have excluded the Little Deer complex from my calculations
The present share price is massively undervalued, in my opinion a fair share value is
Somewhere between £1 and £2

NPV 7% NPV/Share
$ m Shares $Us £
Case 1 248.27 133.89 1.85 £1.35


Case 2 385.3 133.89 2.88 £2.10


Case 3 611.76 133.89 4.57 £2.68
This is just my opinion. please do your own research

Just bought 35000 One blue amongst all that red, what a bargain

Hi Pedro, Sorry 25 day maintenance, 365 -25 days= 340 days production

Hi Pedro, good to get your thought provoking comment.
For the all in sustaining cost post tax I used $ Us 2.13 /lb Cu. This may be a little light , $2.49 /lb Cu might be better. I did not consider tax credits for the losses already incurred, that would be a nice positive refinement .
With regard to gold recovery I treated that as revenue at $Us 1700/Troy oz.
Days worked per annum, I used 340, 365-15 day maintenance shut down,
Appreciate your positive comment. Good luck

Patience and you will be rewarded, good luck

This is my personal valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Mine
Further to my previous valuations this is an update of previous valuations
this valuation confirms my previous valuations that suggest a fair share price is £1.50 per share
My valuation includes revenue from Cu. Au and Ag but excludes any revenue from Little Deer Whaleback mine.
I have assumed that the sorting plant will be operational in 2022 ad that the increased ROM tonnage is achieved
Sorting 2022 H1 9% H2 18% 2023/2041 sorting 18%
2022 Tonnage, ROM 1500 tonnes per day. Tonnage Milled 1350 tonnes/day .
Tonnage, ROM 2023 / 2041, 1646 tonnes/day Tonnage Milled 1350 tonnes/day
Total resourse =23.445m tonnes @1.78% Cu Proven Reserves= 8715800 tonnes @1.71%Cu
Grade of resourse =1.8% Cu , after sorting of 18% = 2.19% Cu
Metal prices used are the latest estimate 2022 Cu $ Us 9000 / tonne , 2023/ 2041 Cu $ Us 10000/tonne
I have calculated the free cash flow using known proven reserves information, planned tonnage, sorting 18%, current metal prices and capital previously published.
Free Cash flow 2022 = $ US 59.49m 2023/2041= $Us68.12m
Capital $ Us 68.4m
NPV 7% $ Us 586.5m
Shares 133.89m
NPV /share $ Us 4.38
NPV/share £3.19 A fair price considering risks would be £ 1.5
The present share price of 30p is seriously under valued
This is my own personal opinion.

The sorting plant ischeduled for Installation in 2022. The plant, when running , will have a significant positive effect on the mine economics.
Tests show the following,
18% rejection of waste from ROM ore
29% increase in head grade to the mill, 2% ROM ore increases to 2.69%
Recovery is 95.7%
Looking at the effect of sorting on the mine daily production of Cu
Present case 1350 ROM tonnes with no sorting daily production 2%Cu = 25.83 tonnes
New case with sorting 18% and 1646 ROM tonnes giving 1350 tonnes to mill at a head grade of 2.69% = 34.75 tonnes.
If as is planed to increase the mill capacity to 2000 then we have
ROM tonnes 2439, tonnes milled 2000 head grade 2.69% tonnes produced 51.48
So in summary, tonnes Cu produced per day
Case1 25.83 tpd cu
Case2. 34.75 tpd cu
Case 3. 51.45. tpd cu
Sorting makes a significant effect on the mine economics
This is my personal evaluation of the effect of sorting on mine economics
Please dyor.

Difficult to say at this stage, I await the next progress report to make an estimate.There are a number of factors to be clarified,
1 completion of finance deal
2completion of 2021 hedge contract as at 31 March still 3022 tonnes copper @$7700/tonne to be sold. I estimate that will be fulfilled towards end of 2021.Then the spot price will come in to play
3 successful commissioning of sorting plant
4 staffing problems to be resolved .
I will have a clearer picture when we get the half year report,

My personal valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Mine Sept 2021
Further to my previous posts attempting to value Ming Mine and the Little Deer complex, I have recalculated the NPV for the Ming Mine using the latest information.
My calculation includes reduced tonnage milled per day of 800tpd for year 2021, tonnage milled in years 2022 -2041, 1350 tpd. I have included sorting, year 2022, H1 15%, H2 30%. My estimate excludes Little Deer Complex revised resource estimate.
I have taken into account the latest published financial arrangements and the previously published Capex figures and assuming the current proposed financial arrangement is approved.
I have used conservative current day prices for Cu 4$US/lb, Au 1700 $US /Oz, Ag 0.85$US/g
For determining the costs I have used the AISC PT 2021 = 2.49 $US/lb. 2022-2041 =2.13$US/lb
NPV @7% discount =466.24m $US.
Shares on issue 130368233
NPV / Share =3.576 $US= £2.65 so to take into account risk I would price the share at £1.30
This share is seriously undervalued at 21p considering the resource at Little Deer complex and the possible increase in resource from step out drilling at Ming Mine and Little Deer Complex
However DYOR

My personal valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Mine July 2021
Further to my previous posts attempting to value Ming Mine and the Little Deer complex, I have recalculated the NPV for the Ming Mine using the latest information.
My calculation includes reduced tonnage milled of 800tpd for year 2021, tonnage milled in years 2022 -2041, 1350 tpd. I have included sorting, year 2022, H1 15%, H2 30%. My estimate excludes Little Deer Complex revised resource estimate.
I have taken into account the latest published financial arrangements and the previously published Capex figures.
I have used conservative current day prices for Cu 4$US/lb, Au 1700 $US /Oz, Ag 0.85$US/g
For determining the costs I have used the AISC PT 2021 = 2.49 $US/lb Cu. 2022-2041 =2.13$US/lb Cu
Free Cash flow year 2021=44.26m $US , Years 2022-2041 = 109.87m$US
NPV @7% discount =466.24m $US.
Shares on issue 108.63m +1.5m convertible note = 110.13m
NPV / Share =4.23$US = £3 To take into account risk I would price the share at £1.50
This share is seriously undervalued at 30p considering the resource at Little Deer complex and the possible increase in resource from step out drilling at Ming Mine and Little Deer Complex
However DYOR

Little Deer/Whalesback mine planned daily production was 1800tpd
Resource total tonnes = 6,899,000. Tonnes mined per annum 630000, LOM 10.9years
Metallurgical tests gave excellent results with a +28% concentrate and a recovery of +97%
Capex (2011) $US110 Revenue $US 829m Cu Price $US3.75
Cost of producing copper is $US 47.32/tonne or $US 1.16/lb Cu
Pretax Net free cash flow $Us 237 after tax Net free cash flow $US 166 .Tax $us 71m
Pre Tax NPV6% $US130.4m after Tax NPV6% $US 86.7m and IRR of 21.5%
Tax is estimated to be 29.9% of free cash flow
Payback period 3.5 years LOM 9.5 years with scope for adding to the resource.
I have attempted to update Little Deer PEA (2011) to present day 2021 and include Whalesback resource
To get an up to dated version of the PEA I have used $US inflation from 2011 to 2021
Average $ inflation was 1.65%/ annum and the accumulated figure is 18.96% for the period 2011 to 2021
Revaluation of 2011 PEA requires updating of capex, price and costs
Capex $US110 92011 escalated by 18.96% to $US 130.85
Cost 56.29$US/tonne or 1.37/lb Cu this appears to be low. Ming Mine cost is $US2.49 without the sorting plant and Duck pond mill in operation.
Assume working 340 days per annum
Copper produced per annum mined = 1800 *2200 * 340* 0.0213= 28.68m lbs
Cost of production $US 2.49/lb Cu using Ming figure
Cost of production per annum 28.678 m lbs Cu *$US 2.49 =$US 71.41m
Price of Cu= $US4.3/lb
Revenue per annum= 1800*340*0.0213*2200*4.3 = $US 123.32m
Total Revenue for LOM 9.5 years = $US 1171.51m
Cash flow before tax =$US51.91
TAX 29.9% of free cash flow =$US15.52
Annual Free Cash Flow after tax =$US36.39
NPV@5% discount =$US135.43 m (PEA 2011= $US86.7)
NVP@7% discount =$US107.91 m
Mining of Little Deer and Whalesback resources will be profitable IMO

Mine Economics. Evaluation of Little Deer and Whalesback mine, an additional Ramblers resource
My previous post gave my valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Mine excluding Little Deer/Whalesback resource as follows
Resources 23.4m ROM tonnes @2% Cu. (recovered Cu 849m lbs. Au 239000 ozs, Ag 1.9m ozs)
Phase 1 Present Plan 1350 tpd
NPV @7% £270.94m shares issued 107.448m NPV / share = £2.52
Phase 2 Turnaround plan with sorting plant 2022, Duck pond mill relocated 2025
NPV/7% $US 918.7m £ 685.6 shares issued 107.448m NPV/ share = £6.38
This plan gives a LOM of 20 years but step out drill exploration is very likely to increase the LOM.
I have now done some research on the Little Deer and Whalesback properties owned by Rambler Metals and Mining
A resource not included in the Rambler Metals mine planning yet is the Little Deer and Whalesback mines which have been previously mined.
The Canadian Mining Journal April 2012 gives details of the resources and infrastructure of the mines.
Little Deer and Whalesback mines are 140Km from Nugget pond processing plant and 30Km from the Goodyear port facility
Little Deer has a ramp access and has a strike length of 1050m and is open along strike, and is 1000m deep and is open in depth.
Whalesback ore body is 500m on strike and is open and 600m deep and is open
Whalesback has a vertical shaft and is connected to Little Deer by a 1000m drift on the 240 level
A PEA study was carried out in late 2011 based on the Little Deer resource only which showed the resource could be mined profitably.
The following resources have JORC certification
Whalesback
Indicated 797000 tonnes 1.67% Cu 29.3m lbs Cu
Inferred 443000 tonnes 1.57%Cu 15.3m lbs Cu
Little Deer
Indicated 1911000 tonnes 2.37% Cu 99.8m lbs Cu
Inferred 3748000 tonnes 2.13% Cu 175.9m lbs Cu
Total
Indicated 2708000 tonnes 2.16% Cu 129.1m lbs Cu
Inferred 4191000 tonnes 2.07%Cu 191.3m lbs Cu
Planned daily production was 1800tpd
Resource total tonnes = 6,899,000. Tonnes mined per annum 630000, LOM 10.9years
Metallurgical tests gave excellent results with a +28% concentrate and a recovery of +97%
Capex (2011) $US110 Revenue $US 829m Cu Price $US3.75
Cost of producing copper is $US 47.32/tonne or $US 1.16/lb Cu
Pretax Net free cash flow $Us 237 after tax Net free cash flow $US 166 .Tax $us 71m
Pre Tax NPV6% $US130.4m after Tax NPV6% $US 86.7m and IRR of 21.5%
Tax is estimated to be 29.9% of free cash flow
Payback period 3.5 years LOM 9.5 years with scope for adding to the resource.

My own valuation of Rambler Metals Ming copper/gold mine, Q2 2021 using 340 working days per annum
My first post, prior to the share consolidation, gave my analysis of the mine’s economics prior to the latest turn around plans.
The NPV@7% discounted was calculated to be £270.94 m, old shares = 10.69billion
Estimated NPV /old share was 2.53 pence.
I have recalculated the economics taking into consideration the latest mine plans after share consolidation. Number of New shares =107.448m
My revised long term NPV/share is £685.61mil /107.448 = £6.5 based on the following
2021, 1350 tonnes per day (tpd) (340days per annum) milled @1.8% Cu. 0.52g/t Au and 2.69g/t Ag
2022 to 2024 Sorting plant will provide a higher head grade to the mill requiring increased ROM ie.
H1 (first half) 2022, 1600tpd. H2, 2022 2000tpd then 2000tpd thereafter until 2025
Sorting H1 2022 15% sorting, H2 2022 30% sorting thereafter 30% sorting for LOM
Head grade increases H1, 2022, 2% Cu, H2, 2022 2.5% Cu
2025 Duck pond mill will be relocated and milling capacity increased to 2400 tpd with sorting the mine will require to produce 3450 ROM tonnes. The head grade will be 2.59% Cu
Total post tax costs reduce from 2.495$us/lb Cu in 2021 to $us 2.13 in 2022 to 2.035$us/lb in 2025
Capex figures used in NPV calculation, figures obtained from various company reports
Initial capex $us 18mill, recently raised capex $us15mill, sustaining capex over LOM $us 27.9mil
The prices for Cu, Au and Ag used are the present day prices.
The present mine resource is 23.448m tonnes I calculate total tonnes milled during LOM to be 22.89m tonnes. Any increase in resources discovered with the mine’s step out exploration will increase the LOM beyond the year 2041, this is highly likely.
The new mine plan, if executed successfully, on time and budget will dramatically improve the mine economics.
My updated calculations give a NPV discounted @7% to be $us 918.717 m = £685.61mill.
Shareholding 107.448m
NPV/Share = £6.5
This is my own assessment, please do your own calculation to confirm or shoot down my figure of £6/share. Currently this share is seriously undervalued.

Very valid question, and I am sure the Newcrest mining engineers have and are considering that option.

Gert. that’s very interesting and I am sure the Newcrest mining engineers
Will be looking at conveyors as one of the options for the ore transfer.

Transport of ore to Telfer
Bamps I think you are right, a rail transport system will be required to handle the massive maximum tonnage of 20 m tons of ore per annum although as you suggest it could be less because of other parties sending ore to the mill.
This is an example of the cost of building a railway in Australia
An extension of the Adelaide to Darwin single rail track was built to Alice Springs in 2003.
Cost was A$ 1.056 m per km (2012 prices) including earthwork, signalling, bridges, level crossings and stations.
The cost of single track, rails and ballast only, was estimated to be A$ 900000 per km (2012 prices)
Updated to present day price, inflation 17.46%. Cost is A$1.240 m per km for total system
Updated price for track alone is A$ 1.057m per km
Total cost of the single track from Havieron to Telfer plant would be approximately A$ 47.565m (£26.635m) plus any earthworks, signalling etc.
For the massive size of the ore deposit, the tonnage involved and the long LOM. Imo the rail option is viable.
We will have to wait and see what Newcrest planners select. It is very interesting.