Member Info for adzy2k11

i read the entire MW report... there was nothing material in there that the shorts haven't already tried to make allegations of before... hence NMC's response pointing to their previous responses... the buy back is very positive.

Oh yeah! 4K - not bad for 90 mins work.

look it fly!

ok, bought 25K at 15K... lets' see...

I can’t even buy £2500 worth

And back up... let’s see

I was levered 3x, just taking it down a tad.

Theres’s the called trade to 200p... taking some off here. Good times.

Buy the morning dips. Rinse and repeat.

Almost, it was 400p to 800p in a day... now look at it...

Patience does it, afternoon rises are great.

From short the morning rises to BUY the morning dips
Really liking this PA.

Added more at 183.1p

Tullow Oil: Downhole

Forecasting oil production is not an exact science. Even so, Tullow Oil’s ever-changing estimates suggest there is not much science to it at all. The London-listed explorer has followed up three cuts to this year’s guidance with a fourth that slashes expectations for the next four years, the dividend and top management. Chief executive Paul McDade and Tullow’s exploration director Angus McCoss have both left by mutual agreement. Shareholders have responded with cuts of their own. Tullow’s shares fell 72 per cent on Monday.

The latest round of downgrades is more than just another trim to over-optimistic estimates. Combined with disappointing results from Guyana drilling last month, Tullow has shifted from a growth prospect to a producer in decline. Costs must be cut to reflect Tullow’s future status as a producer of closer to net 70,000 barrels of oil a day than 100,000, all of which comes from Ghana.

Production hold-ups had multiple causes. Failure to sell a $900m stake in a Ugandan project was a setback earlier in the year. The reasons matter less than the volume of them.

The good news is that there is no imminent cash crisis. The company anticipates $150m of free cash flow next year. Repayment for a $300m convertible bond does not fall due until July 2021. That leaves it some time to fix its operational issues.

More important is the reputational risk that now attaches to Tullow. The oil company’s under-delivery did not start with Messrs McDade and McCoss. It has been disappointing investors for much of the time its flagship Jubilee oil field, which achieved first oil in 2010, has been in production.

But cutting reserve estimates by 30 per cent at its Enyenra field, already in production, make it hard to trust management, even if old management has now gone. The collapse in the market value this year reflects this risk.

Shareholders are left with two options: hope for a bid or get out now. Only those with a high tolerance for risk would opt for the former.

M&G held 5.86% of the stock, which was about 160m in value as of 31 October 2019.
Their worst performing 'Recovery Fund' had a 3% or 60m position as of 31 October 2019.
So there is another 100m sitting in 'other' M&G funds/insti accounts managed by them.
M&G's UK and Global dividend funds have big positions in oil and gas, so could be sales from there too (but i can't see a TLW position in those funds as of the last annual report)
It will be interesting to see if the 'Recovery Fund' was the one that sold. No that it matters too much mind, it's been an awful performer itself.

"Tullow Oil has played a major role in that performance as Dobell rode the rally in the shares, once his biggest bet, to a peak of £15 in 2012 and endured the slump in the years that have followed to today's 44p."

i'm not going to claim any credit, it's a combination of luck, analysis and instinct that i trade with. I use PA as my main indicator and try to trade without sentiment. That has led me to flip long and no enjoying the spike into the close yesterday.

incorrect. go have a look at my most history. i switched to long at 178p after shorting it daily from 250p.

might have been all/most of it... i believe it was held in their dividend income fund.

Still think it will. Holding short there.

Not bad timing on switching long if I say so myself :-)