Member Info for Adz_K

Im sure it will , I disagree I dont personally see tomorrows RNS being Meh! No more convertible bond , no more forward selling ... Big day tomorrow. All they need to say is clean up complete and we will be off to the races! You must be excited as a educated investor on Pantheon , No? Merry Christmas to you too. xX

I predict you are wrong have you seen the flare?

youtu.be/dvNjD3HDRZQ?si=ZzsqqCJnNMIMqruT

Surely squeaky bum time for anyone shorting PANR. xX

Im sooo excited!!!!!

Burning brighter than ever!

x.com/Adz_UK22/status/2002803848566669674?s=20

You know full well that's not how it works. 🥂

It will be at 7am

My opinion now is the time.

Either way a win no...

I’m sitting here like the rest of you, squinting at grey screens, waiting for this storm at Deadhorse to break so we can see the flare. It’s frustrating. Max already confirmed we have a flare, so this vigil is technically a redundant duty, but I'm still watching.

But you know what’s more frustrating? Seeing the usual suspects—looking at you, Lee and the rest—peddling this "Death Spiral" narrative again. It’s lazy, it’s outdated, and it’s completely wrong.

Since I’ve got time while the blizzard blows over, I went back and actually read the filings so we can put this to bed once and for all.

Here is the "Mic Drop" reality: The "Death Spiral" machine is being physically unplugged next week.

A death spiral only works if you have a toxic bond that forces you to print cheap shares every single quarter forever. That was the 2021 Bond. But if you look at the balance sheet as of this weekend... it’s gone. 🥂🍒

The Facts (Since people seem to have forgotten):

Fact #1 (July 7 RNS): They explicitly "prepaid" the payments for March and June 2026. Those liabilities? Vaporized. They don't exist.

Fact #2 (Sept 11 RNS): It states in black and white that after this December payment, the 2021 bonds are "repaid in full."

The "So What?": It means the algorithm that dumped shares on us every three months is leaving the building. The "New" 2028 bond is interest-only (cash pay). No more quarterly dilution. No more forced selling.

The Conclusion: If you are shorting this stock banking on a "Death Spiral" in 2026, you are betting on a ghost. The mechanism is dead.

The bears are relying on a pattern that breaks next week. If we get an RNS on Monday stating the convertible bonds are paid in full, we will rejoice. And if we get a decent operational update—say, 60% water recovery—those shorters are going to find themselves on a very sticky wicket.

GLA.

And even if we don't get that news immediately, the toxic debt is still history. We won't have to put up with these clowns again until 2028, and by then, we’ll be laughing in their faces.

GLA. After this week, we are going north in price and perception!

I’m in the same boat—staring at a grey screen all day. The storm is clearly brutal up there; you can barely see the airport lights, let alone the rig. Anyone claiming the flare is "gone" is either a stooge or needs their eyes checked.

Since we didn't get an RNS today (surprising given the timeline) and the cameras are useless, I decided to do some homework on this bond payment everyone is stressing about.

I know there's confusion, but I went back through the fine print to be absolutely sure. Here is the reality:

The share issue we’ll see next week for the December payment is the FINAL one. The "Old" 2021 Bond is dead after this.

That means the traders and trolls are officially out of luck. This is the last time they can play their little "quarterly dump" game regular as clockwork. Looking at you, Lee!

The Proof (for anyone who wants to check):

July 7, 2025 RNS: It explicitly says they "prepaid" the payments for March and June 2026.

Sept 11, 2025 RNS: Confirmed that after this December payment, the 2021 bonds are "repaid in full."

Why I’m bullish: Next week breaks the cycle. The algorithm that sold shares every 3 months is leaving the building. We enter 2026 with clean books just as the Dubhe-1 flow results land.

I’m expecting news in the next couple of weeks. The shorters will probably try to exit after this final dilution, but if we get an RNS on Monday saying we've hit 60% water recovery and flow testing is kicking off... well, they are going to find themselves on a very sticky wicket.

GLA.

I'm still watching every day , seems a big storm earlier today blocking visibility but if anyone says it's gone they are clearly a stooge you can't even see the airport lights in half the cameras. Surprised the didn't produce an RNS to

I have been watching it everyday and it does look more fierce as time goes on. Very reassuring just my own reflections but lovely to see. 🥂👌

Holds retail investors interesst very much to heart and looks after the like. 🥂

@Siggins No flare that I can confirm, got excited on this one and lean on confident with the FAA but still not confirmed. Need thermal for more insightful reviews. Sorry to waste anyone's time ill keep my posts private from now on. ;) lol Jokes aside I did let everyone know after more research. GLA 🥂😉

In a nut shell.

3. The Double-Bounce

The radar signal hits the vertical wall of the facility and is reflected downwards to the flat horizontal ground.

It then reflects again off the ground and travels directly back to the satellite antenna.

I stand corrected did some more digging and it could be a corner bounce see below ;

⚡ The Active Sensor Effect: Corner Reflection

The high brightness is a result of a phenomenon called corner reflection or double-bounce scattering.

1. Radar Signal Transmission

An active sensor like Sentinel-1 transmits its own microwave energy pulse towards Earth.

When the radar pulse hits the ground, most natural surfaces (like tundra, water, or smooth soil) scatter the energy away from the satellite, resulting in a dark or medium-grey return.

2. The Role of Infrastructure

The Pantheon Alkaid well site consists of large, rigid, man-made structures: metallic pipes, rectangular processing modules, equipment housings, and the vertical flare stack.

These structures are often built with flat horizontal surfaces (the ground pad) meeting flat vertical surfaces (the walls of tanks/modules) at a 90-degree angle.

3. The Double-Bounce

The radar signal hits the vertical wall of the facility and is reflected downwards to the flat horizontal ground.

It then reflects again off the ground and travels directly back to the satellite antenna.

This double reflection, known as a corner reflector, focuses the signal and sends a tremendous amount of energy back to the sensor.

4. The Visual Output

This massive return of energy registers as an extremely high backscatter signal, which is visualized as the brightest white or yellow pixel in the composite image, making the industrial site seem "profound."

Therefore, the SAR sensor is not detecting the fire, but rather the highly efficient radar reflectivity of the metal infrastructure at the flare location. The intensity is purely a measure of the target's geometry and material, which is far greater than surrounding natural features.

@donalb Good point, I was thinking the same thing. Usually, the entire site is fully lit, but on this occasion, it isn't. I’ve been monitoring this daily (Tip: if anyone else wants to check, just create a new Gmail account to bypass the limit after 10 images).

​I usually try to remain pessimistic/cautious with these things, but I view this as a positive sign. Obviously, thermal imagery will give us a better idea when the satellite passes over again, but for now—between this change in lighting and the activity on the FAA airport cam—I’m feeling much more confident. GLA 🥂🍾

X.com/Adz_UK22/status/1992503945919623647?t=Upd7YR4LTk530iD0hZYhgw&s=19

Operational Update:

Well clean-up operations are ongoing at Dubhe-1. It remains early in the flowback process with, as expected, initial production overwhelmingly dominated by previously injected stimulation fluids. Thus far, only 20% of the injected water has been recovered with steady gas production and intermittent production of light oil. It is anticipated that the well will continue to clean up in the coming weeks before a representative rate can be determined from the reservoir.

Ai's opinion

Q: Why does the clean-up and flowback operation for Pantheon Resources' Dubhe-1 well seem to be taking a long time?

​A: The multi-week flowback process is normal and expected for a complex, stimulated appraisal well in a reservoir like the one targeted by Pantheon on the North Slope.

​Key Points:

​Standard Timeline: The "coming weeks" timeframe for clean-up aligns with typical industry and Pantheon-specific guidance for appraisal wells, which often require 30–90 days for full testing and representative rate determination.

​Purpose of Flowback: The initial period is dedicated to recovering the massive volume of injected stimulation fluid (frac fluid). Only 20% of the water has been recovered, meaning the remaining 80% is still suppressing the full flow of oil and gas.

​Positive Signs: The presence of steady gas production and intermittent light oil at this early stage (20% recovery) is actually a positive indicator that the hydraulic fractures are successfully communicating with the target reservoir.

​Reservoir Management: A controlled, multi-week clean-up is crucial for proper reservoir management. Rushing the process could damage the extensive 25-stage fracture network, leading to reduced long-term performance.

Looks good to me. Right location for sure and given the distance from the airport I wouldn't expect anything as big as what was visible before on the closer wells. Lovely to see.