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SC are now almost out; bear in mind that these sales are being taken up quickly hence the see-saw. Once the flow stops then the gap jump to 30+
Just a matter of time and that is rapidly decreasing with results in 2 weeks and announcement that company is debt-free. Once that happens we are talking $800/oz hitting the bottom line.....sweet.
There's only so many times it can bounce along the bottom when the fundamentals are all rising. Once the known seller has cleared (which is imminent), the disparity between current MCap and recent soaring gold price will fall away quickly and this will/must gap-jumps to reflect reality. The proximity of results announcement in 2 weeks (June 3rd last year) also provides a springboard as all debt should have been cleared throwing profits straight to the bottom line. Solid.
Great opportunity to get on board as HUM is only a fortnight away from results. Good positive last t/u gave indication of sound progress.
"Our balance sheet continued to strengthen during the quarter. Our net cash position improved, with the last remaining Company debt of ~US$4.6 million forecast to be paid this quarter, taking the Company into a debt free position, as we forecast over 12 months ago, being a noteworthy achievement" Gold price working strongly in company favour. Not without some risk but diverse and cash flow increasing. Solid.
Look at revenue growth which almost doubled in each of the years pre-covid £31m, £54m, £98m. Steady covid year with a big upswing expected this year all being well as restrictions ease. Solid management and tight financial measures should give healthy bottom line. Current MCap equals NAV so downside is pretty well bulletproof given last upbeat t/u in April. That gave a nice bounce in the share price which has pulled back enough to make investment here look a shrewd move now.
Personally I think the effect of inflation on the work carried out by Ince is minimal compared to the huge upswing in business which should be heading in their direction as the brakes come off covid lockdown. Ince is primarily active in commercial and maritime law plus high net worth individuals, all of which should grow strongly as the economy restarts.
It's looking very probable that we'll see an earnings upgrade as lockdown eases as the business had already indicated increased momentum in it's last positive t/u. Good to see a company where all directors AND staff have skin in the game.
Ince has fallen back since it's strong trading update on April 22nd providing an excellent top up opportunity. Naked trader bought in at 75p looking for a 95p target. Ince had a deeply discounted rights issue in January 2020 with all directors and staff buying in at 45p. It's still only risen back to the current level with plenty of legs to get back to pre-rights £1 and well beyond. Directors are keen to reinstitute divi on the back of strong trading. Plus the expected rise in legal cases as furlough ends should really accelerate UK growth. Good company, strong management and trading at NAV. Solid.
I would expect a complete news lockdown as negotiations reach a crucial stage.....that's where I assume we are currently placed. News should certainly come out in short order as finals are also scheduled for May. Interesting pivot point ???
The 100ks are all buys not sells
Loads of 100k buys hitting now, ...could this be the hint of a leak I predicted and sale of maritime?? Hard to keep a hermetic lid on progress here given the interest. Could signal a big upswing.
Here's my reasoning - for what it's worth.
Phil Cartmel hits his 70th birthday soon.
He has amassed an excellent group of complimentary companies in Sapienza, Osprey, Polaris, Westek, ALS and FSS. He has rationalized and sold the loss making heavy engineering division and is now negotiating the potential sale of maritime (+?). He was only able to acquire the 5 complementary businesses above as a direct result of being afforded access by the high-level security intrinsically linked to maritime. If you Google TG maritime it will give you a brief synopsis of the proposed 'up for grabs'. Maritime, despite its earnings stream is now more valuable sold than in house imo to inject more cash which can be deployed elsewhere for higher margins. It seems a pivotal and transitional opportunity for the major shareholders to invite change and see the real value of the company reflected in it's share price. We shall see, but the focus is there this year.
M&G hold almost 20%, Canaccord 12%, Close Bros 11% and Ruffer and HL together 15% ..... collectively that is 58%. They, believe me, will want a rapid re-evaluation and indication of progress here. Would they sell out? At what 'substantial' premium as they are all in at higher that current MCap. Expect a showdown soon yep, hence my 'happy to buy at this level' stance. One way or another it will move TP forward in short order imo.
Difference being that TP maritime contracts are vital safety critical contracts concerning H&S atmosphere control in a closed manned environment. The contracts in the UK, EU and Australia are solid commissioning and refurb ones paid by government so are very lucrative. Overseas markets are opening to new orders also. There are, I am sure, tier 1 and tier 2 contractors looking for a stable earnings stream for which they will pay TP a premium. Time will tell. If the price isn't right, walk away and keep it yourself.
At the moment we're on a seesaw....low volume buy/sell balance. Results are due this month PLUS TP are four months into the necessary due diligence needed for the sale of HMG defence related maritime division. Any sniff of an impending resolution will inevitably increase interest and buying as it will be impossible to keep a hermetic lid on it. Total NAV here is conservatively just under 5p... upside ????
Certainly did Dinoken! The heavy engineering division centred around Dukinfield in Manchester and was upgraded on the prospects of its strong oil and gas and nuclear relationships. The subsequent unforseen collapse of its markets required radical action, simply keep or divest. I agree with the decision of management. You only have to look at specialists in the field eg PRES to see the ongoing erosion. Better to lose a £3m pa drain on your bottom line and focus on the growth areas. Let's see what TP can squeeze out of maritime.......keep or hold? My cigarette packet sum-of-the-parts projections plus and order book at 1.5x current MCap puts the value at almost double today's so I'm happy to hold and tuck more away. Plus it wouldn't surprise me if Phil Cartmel played out his swan song and took £120m for the whole outfit. Time and patience from this derisory level should see a nice 100% profit. Interesting time without a big downside risk as it's supported by cash and assets now.
You have to look at just how much the divested heavy engineering arm was losing....
Thankfully the sale of the cash draining Dukinfield engineering business has already transformed the profit profile for the current yr. It was losing £3m pa. It won't have affected the year ended Dec2020 but going forward alongside the pending disposal of maritime should have a massive effect on the bottom line. I think PC will hand over control when either maritime or possibly the whole group is sold to realise real intrinsic value here. I am sure that the institutional holders are more than aware in this evolving salary conscious environment. 10p should be vaulted in the near term as sentiment aligns with real prospects and material growth going forward. Sale of the £3m loss-maker immediately translates to the bottom line for the current year.
Entirely agree. Do you not however think that the disposal of the heavily loss-making engineering division in Manchester was an indication of centralisation. Clearly the market on which it was meant to be focussed is in an unexpected decline. Selling the maritime division, provided the exit price is excellent, should also cut more costs and allow the group to coalesce the remainder. The fact that Phil Cartmel has accumulated a hi-tech group in Sapienza, Osprey, Westek and ALS means that he may also have a defined exit strategy for the whole company given his age. Time will tell as I assume the sale of maritime involves significant due diligence due to the national security of the field and arena in which it operates.
Excellent piece Scrodingerscat. I think you've hit one of several nails on the head here and also given a valid reason for the prolonged due diligence surrounding the maritime sale. This is a golden opportunity for Phil Cartmel to play out his exit strategy. I think the intentiin to sell maritime was a ghost to invite interest in the whole business. The take out price that PC would expect is 'considerable more's than the current MCap, hence the prevarication. It remains to be seen how this plays out but my reasons for buying back in are the strengths of the tech and IP in high growth areas plus the final divestment of the heavy engineering division which has destroyed meaningful profit for years. The sale won't affect figures to Dec 2020 but should have a huge effect on this current year. The downside from here is very very limited whilst the upside is considerable imo given the intrinsic value of growth components Sapienza, Osprey, Polaris, Westek, ALS and FSS even excluding maritime.