Member Info for AdamWithoutEve

Where did that come from? Just the announcement of the quarterly call? Maybe everyone forgot about us till that reminder :D

And the Migration begins! :D Got to flag this up for my watchlist! :)

I do wonder if they will state lots of warning at the quarterly presentation today (2PM right...?) As the whole Iran situation and Oil price shock, which obviously could get worse.

It might scare enough guys to create a great buying opportunity. Im back in at 1700 :D

I feel its to insulate them from any future economic crisis. During downturns institutions would prefer to lend against the security of physical items.

Moving from secured to unsecured frees up those assets to be used in the backing of future possible loans.

Just shows how much inflation and interest rates has fallen, that the interest rate of this new unsecured is so low. Usually the other way round.

Also todays announcement... Raising 2B to pay off 1.4B of 2027 notes...?

I've taken a look at my old friend the debt schedules that they release.

Baring in mind this is only over a 9 month period because they've annoyingly deleted the old stuff.

August 24 $28.856B, In Q4-24 0.737B due, Q1-25 0.411B, & Q2-25 0.469B. If we only paid down what's due we would be at 27.239B. The current debt schedule, $27.254B.

We haven't reduced debt at all. Yes the interest rate is lower, but because we've shoved it deep into the future the interest adds up.

I really cant see investment grade next year unless we aggressively start paying down sharpish, which I cant imagine happening, considering cash equivalents is at the lowest I've seen it in a while. And if we could, why wouldn't we already.

I still think we are all on for a winner, but investment grad next year? Certainly not, maybe by around 2028...

What I have I'm intending to hold long term. I think it will be closer to 2028 for investment grade. But at that point I think we will be easily double our current position.

Saying that though, the tariff pause expires next week. And maybe this will be more likely to stay with Trump not liking the TACO comments. Last time it crashed big. Think we could see this again? Could this give us interesting option to sell a fraction now and re-buy more shares? Especially with the heights we are currently at...

Getting more worried that we aren't paying down the Debts.

We are currently at £27B, now that the 2026 loan note was refinanced into the future we will only have £300m due to be repaid on loans before the end of 2026. (excluding the export credit facilities).

Its great that we are reducing interest expense, but over two years we will be reducing our total only down to £25B. Nearly all from paying the export credit facilities. This doesn't scream investment grade by 2026 to me. I'm starting to think it will be 27/28 now.

I'm still positive on CCL long term, I just think it may take longer now.

Just taken a look, taking this $350m out of the last debt schedule gives us ~$27.4B in debt. If everything is paid off that matures before the end of FY 2026 then we will still be at ~$23.9B.

In the past a lot has just been renewed at lower rates instead of being paid off.

For some perspective we were at $33B, but it does still seem very slow.

Good news of course.

But feels like we should be working down the debt faster.

There's not much debt due over the next couple of years, so unless we have a lot more early redemption's it doesn't seem like investment grade as early as they have suggested

Its a Tuesday. A day ending in day.

I was also wondering why CCL has been hit so much more than most companies. And I'm convinced its the debt. I'm reminded of the phrase 'Cash is King', and in a big recession, debt kills (which is why Apple mostly remains untouched). I know we are largely on fixed interest, but most people don't look at that, they will look at the total pile.

The tariffs and rumors of targeting cruise is just the double wammy on such a delicate stock.

Pre Us election I was 100% happy with sticking with the stock for the next 10 years. Now, well, lets just say I'm happy I pulled everything out at an average of £18. I might be buying my first home in the next couple of years. And the £30k profit I made on this stock will be very useful. Money market fund along with all of my other liquidated stocks.

Dont take my opinions, do your own research. Im just VERY negative about the future of the entire world in coming years.

In for the long run!

I've also been thinking that cruising may become a safe bet for the big boys. DJ hasn't said anything about travel stocks, tech and finance is looking shaky at the moment. Retail and pharma could be hit soon. I may just be being optimistic.

Also ignore the fact I took out half my stake at 19.50 a few days ago. CCL had ballooned to almost half my portfolio.

You had to say that!

70p drop since american markets open and still going.

Any reason we are aware of? Or just the normal fiddling?

How are we thinking it will go today?

My prediction will be we will once again slightly beat analysts predictions on earnings. Bookings will be very strong for 2025. I think we know Debt hasn't changed much this quarter. Overall a 5% drop after announcement even though its pretty much all good. Same old funky weird plays and profit taking. Then back up to where we are now on Monday.

My wish list a strong cash flow beat, announcing they have cash set aside for the final high interest debt with early payment dates in May and June. Expectation of therefore investment grade June. Then discussion on either ramping up future investment for growth or an expectation on share buybacks. Buybacks seem all the rage at the moment and I think its a better option at current price compared to low interest debt pay down. As well as I feel growth/buybacks will bring back optimism in this stock as it feels criminally undervalued compared to others in the sector, because of a lack of 'vision'.

All personal opinion, love to here what you guys think? Where are our risks?

Hi All,

As the subject says, been a long time lurker in here. Been happy to see that generally this has been a positive forum, with some constructive critical analysis at times, which is refreshing compared to most forums. I thought id poke my head in and say Hi.

I've been investing for 5-6 years now and Carnival has become one of my biggest holdings. At an average purchase price just over £10 I am very happy with my 2700 shares over the last few months :D

I've wondered about if I jump a portion out at this time, but still being fairly young, I am happy taking the risk at this time.

The dates i'm looking out for are the 1st of May and June 2025. Basically debt. I spend too much time looking at those supplemental debt schedules, and i've noticed realistically we don't have much debt at high rated (I say over 8%). But we do have $2B & $1B of notes at roughly 10.5%. However they do have early call dates of May and June next year. I'm hoping we will receive RNS notifications of early pay downs of these balances specifically. I think at this point we can start glaring at the ratings agencies for the one thing we all want :D

Anyway, hi, hope your all well, and thank you for creating a positive forum :D