Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

15p on the nail. In my long investing life I cannot remember ever experiencing anything quite like this!

What is going on....?

I need to get on with work and keep forgetting to press buttons! The share price behaviour is extradordinary!

Inside info, institutional stock building, incipient bid or irrational fomo buying.

Take your pick!

Don't want to sound smarmy but in response yesterday to someone getting jittery about the recent rise and thinking of bailing and then getting back in "when lower" I posted a recommendation to stay put if he/she considered themselves in (then out/then in etc) for the long term.

Hope you didn't sell otherwise you will have been burnt by today's rise.

I think you might just trade some junior goldies on the basis of irrational retail investors but this stock is different at the moment. There is less irrationality now the jittery CNR holders (yes I was one!) have bailed and holders are increasingly institutional.

Make sure you reclaim the VAT when you cross the road back into France!

It all depends on whether one is in for the long haul. Trying to be clever and deciding that it is overvalued at this particular point in time is a dangerous game if you think there is long term value in the stock.

I'm happy to stick around if things remain optimistic since I thing if everything turns out as I hope then probably 70p is where I would get twitchy.

In the meantime if this pulls back to say 10-11 awaiting further news I'm more than ok with that.

Yes I agree lee. Sorry about putting the "now" in my quote. Clearly that was wrong. However, drilling in July is way earlier than some have suggested below so surely MTL must have the permission or why make such a rash statement about drilling?

I'm assuming he'll have something further to say as part of the usual quarterly release in 3-4 weeks....

If you look at the latest Vox interview I recall DB saying something along the lines of "we own it now" so take from that what you will!

Strictly speaking fair value is also known as mark to market i.e. what is the price today. So the answer to your question is simple. Bid is 11.30 and that's fair value.

Everything else is speculation

Poof that's a tough question. Firstly you have to decide whether some or most of DBs (admittedly infectious) enthusiasm is BS or has substance and probability behind it. I happen to think from having questioned him face to face and seen many presentations as well as the obvious results achieved so far he is still keeping his feet on the ground. So here goes...!

If nothing else but Nic comes off then the company may be worth 20p

If MTL snap up some or all of those juicy abandoned licenses outside the CNR tenant then add another 10 - ie. 30p

If Dupax yields decent results so that the existing plant can keep going for another say 5 year then another 10p

Finally, and most speculatively, if the presumed copper deposit turns out to be the monster DB hopes it to be from very preliminary investigative work then add another 30p.

So hey we have 70p!

Maybe.....?

Interestingly during the interview DB said of Dupax "we own it" and we'll be drilling starting in July. No mention of having to wait for any o/s license permissions to be signed. So I'm assuming they've got full permission now to go ahead and, if so, we should be getting some interesting drill results in the next 1-2 months since they'll already have their in site labs in the Philippines so the turn round time should be short.

I should b*oody well hope not! He's got enough on his to do list without emulating MicroStrategy!

I'm assuming that was a satirical comment...?

I've been listening to a couple of podcasts about the situation in Columbia including an assassination attempt on a leading politician. Perhaps this may be influencing the share price?

Or so say Bhargiv/Johnson/Seingrid et al.

And still the gold sits in he ground!

Waiting patiently...

Now-now non of this divisive rhetoric please!

We're all metalloids now!!!

I know all about CNR. My entire MTL holding is through CNR too!

Well it seems in so far as CNR was concerned that you are a long term holder too so why mention charts if you haven't used them in the past for CNR?

As far as true spreads are concerned yes you can find temporally lower ones but in my experience when something big is happening they have a tendency to widen dramatically.

Funny that!

Ah Mr Boasty Mc'boastface!

As with all things punted to me that don't make sense I tend to assume their proponents are either fools or knaves. The knaves being the ones who trade off human emotion generated by investors response to what they think the charts are telling them the fools are the ones that lose money and pretend they haven't.

Looking at your chart it seems (and I accept this is a big assumption) that you are a momentum investor. No problem excellent strategy given overall stock market behaviour in the last 20 years. Just don't elevate to make it seem a theory of everything. Charts like all strategies in the market work until they don't. What they are not are irrefutable immutable rules unlike those that originate from true science.

Trading is OK with small spreads but with small stocks such as MTL with spreads of ~5% or more the only winners are the brokers.

Oh and did I mention that small stocks have low correlation to main market indices and even with more obvious influencing factors such as POG. They do not tend to work with simple moving average. A piece of good or bad news can knock a chart for six. Just look at Hochschild yesterday

I wish the best of luck trading small goldies. You're going to need it!

I ain't trading, I'm holding. Everyday the gold price stays above 3k is another day of cash generation to get ploughed into Nicaragua. As long as Trump and co are distracted they'll leave Nicaragua alone.

I going to be at the AGM next week for certs. Anyone else coming?

Charts are ^ollocks at the best of times. With small cap goldy miners they are an irrelevance.

They run on news flow. Positive news flow, they go up; on negative news flow they go down. On the absence of news flow they go down to cos punters attention span and patience = ~0

Trade on that! Or perhaps not given big spreads...

As long as the garimpeiros don't get it first!