Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Well for the sake of your future existence you should be grateful that 20 is off the table! At least that's the stoic view
Nope we're in the valley of deficient information.
I bought way back just after the AGM in the dark days of December at the time I just couldn't evaluate whether anybody would be brave enough to bid given the ramifications on US sections were still being felt. 4 months on and the price has doubled but clearly my initial hunch was right. I've lost count - is it 4/5 or 6 indicative offers. Yes the price has doubled but clearly buyers are willing to spend the time and effort to travel all the way to see the prospective mine in person so I'd be amazed that at least half will follow through.
During the AGM Mark intimated strongly that 125m would be the minimum the Board would except. Those were dark days and you could tell from his demeanour. I'm sure that 125m minimum has in the Board's mind shifted upwards - maybe to 175m and I'm pretty sure that would have been communicated to prospective bidders before that undertook due diligence work. I.e logically I'm pretty sure that we have upwards of 3 serious bidders who know that they're wasting their time if they don't come in at a minimum figure that more or less guarantees the share price ending up north of 50p even allowing for dilution and expenses.
In short it seems a slam dunk. The only thing that could put a spanner in the works is an exogenous factor such as a market panic and/or slump in the gold price.
We'll see...
Yes, it would be reasonable to assume that any potential buyer would be tempted to put in an order to buy a tranche of shares at a price lower than we were willing to pay for the whole shebang. However, against that once they reached 3% they would have to declare themselves and obviously at 30% would need to make an offer.
I would imagine that the entities themselves would be too busy evaluating the asset to be bothered with all the hassle of arranging share purchases. That's not to say that they could be a bit of insider trading going on from members of the various bidding teams.
A scandalous suggestion? Nah we're talking about jurisdictions not so bothered about such things...
My guess much of the drop is down to reports of renewed fighting in the last 15 hours. Yes, yes I know the companies activities are far away from this but some investors are skittish...
Why?
They're all relatively high cost producers and thus well geared to AU price rises...?
Any thoughts...?
Condor Gold (AIM: CNR; TSX: COG) is pleased to announce its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2022 and provides notification that the Annual General Meeting of shareholders of the Company will be held at 3:00 p.m. on 11 May 2023 at 7/8 Innovation Place, Godalming, Surrey, GU7 1JX, United Kingdom.
I shall be attending the AGM in downtown Godalming. Assuming the bids are still in progress clearly, I won't be able to extract any info there, but I'll be zeroing in on what they intend to do with the money and rump of the business once a transaction with a main buyer is completed.
Thanks Cambells for listing the options and expiry dates. Seems to me there will be a strong incentive to push the price up as fast as possible between now and May when the majority of options will expire. Obviously the 15p ones can be cashed in but the 40p ones will be worthless unless the share price moves above this level. Clearly for that to happen binding bids need to happen in the next 6 weeks....
Yes I've also been a holder since the 15p days and yes I agree it is both massively undervalued and not worth trading given the large bid/offer spread.
I think one reason for the undervaluation over and above other mining peers is the increasingly complexity of their output and the inability to value it minus costs to give a PV valuation.
THS which I also have quote a P6 basket price and I wonder whether something similar might help here...
I wouldn't disagree with any of the feedback provided by any of the attendees. The three things I would emphasise are:
- Guinea - this is the crunch point where all the workstreams come together and any mistakes made down the line previously hidden become apparent. If any major ones occur, how long before management fess up? Fingers crossed for this.
- gold pour. It will be announced in a big fanfare but remember this will be at the commissioning stage. To start with the amounts will be small so little impact on cash flow. The issue is as much how quickly production can be ramped up as when it starts
- Yani. The easy pickings are due to be used up by June. It's then that we'll know how economic the rest is and how good the new man (COO of whatever his title) is.
The meeting was enough for me to hold not fold and not twist.
It's interesting to see how slowly the market has reacted to the news of interest in the assets.
Given all that's happening in the world in general and Nicaragua in particular there was always the legitimate question as to whether anybody was really ready to take on the risk on the asset at all.
However, the news of substantial interest, in particular two site visits is proof positive that there is risk appetite and as others have noted MCs body language spoke volumes.
It's pretty clear that they're expecting a decent offer to come so given the residual risk of all lowball offers or subsequent no shows I would have thought a climb back to 30 would have been in short oder.
But it's taking a lot longer than what I consider an efficient market would take.
Inefficient market = one worth investing in by retail investors...
Imo!
Yes I'll try to arrive a bit early so look forward to meeting those of you who can attend...
Yes I agree - I thought the meeting on Monday was to OK the 2nd tranche with the management being able to OK the 1st tranche within powers conferred to them when the normal resolutions were passed at the last AGM.
Thanks Swatton - I'll add your questions into those that I want to ask and where they are, in my opinion, not adequately answered I'll attempt a follow up.
I'll be attending on Monday. I intend to ask a range of questions during the meeting (it'll probably be after the vote if experience is anything to go by). I tend to formulate the questions on the day but I notice some have already sent some questions in. It would help develop my ideas as to what to ask if you could post them on the BB just so that we're not "stepping on each other shoes..."
Thanks
is that we retail folk not entitled to the CLN part. They are the key to getting one's money back should it all go t*ts up. The amount of money raised via CLNs is many times more than that raised by shares.
So let's suppose, for the sake of argument, the worse case scenario namely that no processing license is forthcoming and buyers hold back from buying out the company scenting they can get it much cheaper when in danger of running out of money CORA hands back the exploration license and hi tails it out of Mali with what money is left in the bank.
As CLNs will rank before share holders, they will get some pence back in the pound. In this scenario, the sooner the company exits Mali on the realisation all is lost, the higher the return. Lionhead don't lose any money because you can bet your bottom dollar than any disbursements will be made only when the company has already spent some or all of the money raised via shares/CLNs on building the mine and they would be mad to do that without a mining license.
That leaves ordinary shareholders losing the lot. No wonder the BOD are committing virtually none of their money into ordinary shares.
Anybody wish to argue otherwise?
I do agree partly with the pessimists that the company is the agent of its own misfortune. The management were too ambitious and actually rather good on the corporate wheeler dealer side but could then become horribly overstretched on the implementation of it all. Make no mistake though other junior gold miners who have been less ambitious have seen their share price suffer too.
Actually I thought the Vox interview was pretty sober and didn't really attempt ramp up the opportunity too much. I agree with them that if they can get things right operationally both in getting to pour the gold and then producing it consistently profitably then yes this can be a multibagger. The problem is their track record is not good. Question have they learnt from their errors? Will Know-how that driver of all commercial success kick in? I don't know in all honesty.
That's why I'll be at the AGM and want to here more, a lot more.
As for casting my vote - yes I will vote in favour. In my opinion is dilute or bust. We and the Board have run out of options. To vote against will almost certainly doom the company and what remains of our holdings...
Ctw - correct!
If you look at the Q$ outlook - finance section HUM states:
"Of the budgeted c.US$115 million capex for the construction of Kouroussa, c.US$65 million has been paid as at the end of Q4 2022, with the balance to be paid over the coming quarters from Yanfolila cash flows (which have improved) and existing debt facilities, including c.US$20 million contractor deferrals, retention incentives and working capital not expected to be paid until Kouroussa is into full production"
Personally I think Yani is going to be about cash neutral after paying out the extra interest. That leave a $50m gap. So where is it going to come from. The RNS helpfully tells us that 15m of the bank facilities remain plus they reckon they can flex their working capital by $20m. So that leaves $15m.
I wonder where that is going to come from....?
Thanks all for filling me in on the licensing situation in Mali. For the record I own shares in Cora and would not be averse to helping fund the next phase of the operation. However, you guys below put your finger on what is for me the potential show stopper. Yes the reserves are eminently exploitable and the team more than qualified enough to do the job at a profit particularly if the gold price holds up. But, but, but the license. I know enough about the Russians and how they operate behind the scenes to spot danger. They don't want to be seen to overtly threaten property rights since they have interests of their own to protect, but what they do is attack on inflection points. One such is moving from exploration to exploitation and thus needing to go back to the govt for a new license. This is where they can work behind the scenes to deny western company's what would normally be legitimately theirs. I note that contained within the CLN's optionality is to reclaim the money back in the event the company is sold. I think it's clearly going through their minds that they might have to sell to the Russians or Chinese who now have the ear of the Malian government.
Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic but I see three possible options for me requiring action at some point.
1) Buy share outright. I note the main backers are putting a reasonable amount of money via this route. Clearly the price is the lower than via the CLN but there is no optionality that the latter provide.
2) subscribe for the CLNs. There is some optionality embedded here but not much. I would very much like to have included -options for reimbursement if licenses were not forthcoming
3) Buy in the secondary market at a time of my choosing. I would probably have to pay more but given the scale of upsides and downsides for me even a 50% premium on the current ~4p price would not put me off - under the right circumstances.
In conclusion I need to know more. Maybe an online interview with BM or more likely turning up in person to the AGM and doing a bit of eyeballing..
Any other takers?