Simon the best way to predict the future is to study the past. Previously GCM’s mcap was over 250m as approval looked likely (back in the day - before 55 million spent on getting to where we are now, with feasibility studies etc, price of coal was considerably cheaper than it is now too). Power China coming on board it went above 100m…
You can’t compare now to any other time in the past, other than when approval was imminent back in the day, this is the first time since then an actual proposal has been put to GOVT (i won’t list the reasons why the green light is coming as I’m sure you’ve heard them many times).
We are the end game imo - obviously only risk what you can afford to lose but don’t let a week/month/few months at most get between you and potentially life changing cash.
The green light is only the beginning, cash will be generated very quickly from there with the ‘other resources’ i referred to earlier being worth 17 billion $ (value of coal 87 billion $).
Searcher we have 83 billion $ worth of coal and 17 billion $ worth of ‘other resources’ (to be extracted as we mine the coal, so recovered within 2 years!).
Our current mcap of 16m is a joke. GL is coming and when it does… 🧨 🧨 🧨
Simon, PC signed a JV for the Barisal power station in 2017, this power station only came online April 23.
The project was riddled with controversies (land acquisitions, licences etc), but in the end got the green light from GOVT as you’d expect with a player like PC on board.
PC first signed JV with GCM in 2018 - markets reaction was ‘done deal’ hence a spike up to 70p area, various delays and shenanigans since have resulted in SP languishing where it is now. However, PC have not only remained with us but signed further contracts etc - they’re here because they know the green light is coming.
GCM alluded to Barisal plant in 11th March RNS.
‘Coal Supply Expressions of Interest:
The Company has received Expressions of Interest to purchase Phulbari's coal from both of Bangladesh's current Independent Power Producers, being SS Power Limited that operates the 1,320MW Banshkhali power plant and Barisal Electric Power Company that operates a 350MW unit at Barisal (with plans to add an additional unit). These represent some 27% of the present market.’
Hand in hand.
Some links with useful info:
https://www.gem.wiki/Barisal_power_station#cite_note-17
⬆️ References sources provided at bottom of page.
https://en.powerchina.cn/2023-04/20/c_828308.htm
http://en.sasac.gov.cn/2023/04/23/c_15148.htm
Bingo
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/climate/coal-electricity-bangladesh.html
🤝
Safe to assume project proposal is with govt…as far as the market is concerned, no news is good news.
A project this big takes time to have everything in place before an official green light, a non starter simply needs a NO…there’s been ample opportunity to say NO namely when Nasrul Hamid explicitly bought up Phulbari and open pit mining in parliament. More recently no public rebuttals to the recent Facebook post by Mr Uddin (contrary to opinion here, official accounts on social media platforms being used to pressure and drum up support/anger is normal).
On a separate note, we need to question who was (maybe still) buying up so many shares through Feb/March/April and into May…this wasn’t your average pi. Who doesn’t need to disclose this info to the market?
Just a case of waiting for the GL before we start to make waves. Until then the market is free to manipulate the price however which way it likes, given the appetite for shares, it won’t go lower than it has this week imo.
See you at the top! GL
100% Polio.
Positive, we can receive news anytime re approvals - imo it’s more likely in weeks than months.
Everyone spare a prayer for professional, Wise Owl’s other investment matd is top of leaderboard and the first thing that came to mind is poor professional 😂 we’ll be top of the leaderboards soon!!
Https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=GCM.GB.PL&share=Gcm-Resources-Plc
Showing here. As were quite a few delayed 100k block buys the last week.
It’s usual and predictable GP, without a definitive end date the market will test the resolve of holders, accumulate shares that they’ll sell back higher.
Why offer a bid of 9-10p while waiting knowing plenty (mainly newer holders) will become impatient and sell - offer 6p, coupling impatience with doubt/fear and boom.
Nothings changed here as far as approval being a near on certainty, what happens between now and then is almost irrelevant given what the SP will reach.
‘Buy when others are fearful’ quote was made for times like these! GL
GP….some words of wisdom from NC. Safe to apply the same logic here. LOL
NCTrade
Posted in: HE1
Posts: 868
Price: 1.025
No Opinion
RE: Buy buy2 Apr 2024 09:01
Just remember folks, nobody spends so much time and effort knocking a bad share…
NCTrade
Posted in: HE1
Posts: 868
Price: 1.075
No Opinion
RE: Terrible Humans28 Mar 2024 12:23
A whiff of news and this will surge...
I think he’s bullish.
From the link posted:
Nasrul Hamid said, "It is time to consider the opportunity costs, whether it is more profitable to set up an alternative fuel power plant, and who will be the potential customers even if electricity is generated. Some proposals have come to set up solar power plants," he said.
From JDA:
GCM Resources plc (LON: GCM), an AIM quoted mining and energy company, is pleased to advise that it has agreed a Joint Development Agreement ("JDA") with PowerChina International Group Limited ("POWERCHINA"), and Dyani Corporation Ltd ("DYANI") in relation to a proposed new greenfield solar project called the Dinajpur Solar Power Project ("SOLAR PROJECT") which would be an adjunct project in conjunction with the Phulbari Coal and Power Project ("the Project").
In 2006 when approval was almost a certainty (until locals protested, resulting in deaths and pressure on the GOVT on election year) the share price was 850p, the equivalent of 150p in todays money, a ton of coal cost approx £13 then compared to almost £100 now (more given the quality of coal at Phulbari).
In 2000’s the likes of Barclays were ready to finance the mine, partnering Asia Energy - given it was Hasinas first term as president, it being election year, the pressure resulting from loss of life at protests was too much so she decided against giving it.
A lot has changed since then and we’re now into Hasinas last term as president, we have Power China on board, the locals who contrary to popular belief have only been in the area since the mid 1970’s and in the most part were fully supportive of the original bid for approval. The main kicker being the price of importing coal isn’t sustainable, a local alternative is needed…that alternative is Phulbari.
It’s a weird one, a sell went through 8.01 for £500 @ 5.61 - the 250k trade was a minute later for 5.67, a higher price.
Looking at the spread one would assume it’s a sell - the above logic indicates it’s a buy… one things for sure, mm’s are having a field day in the background.