Member Info for AceofClubs

Market is not impressed - shares currently on sale below £4. No real surprises in the annoncemet apart from the forecast dividends going forward. Market remains unconvinced.
AceOfClubs

schjmh - my views? I can see no value in adding a loser to the Board; I prefer a business run by winners; just a personal preference. If the Board of Directors is not responsible for the financial performance of the company then who is pray? Maybe Andrea Blance was just unlucky - but the share price of Provident Financial has gone in only one direction in the 5 (yes 5) years she has sat on the Board. My views will not be everybody's but the facts are the facts.
AceOfClubs

On 21 February 2022 Andrea Blance was appointed as a NID to the Board of our company AVIVA.
On 1 March 2017 Andrea Blance was appointed to the Board of Provident Financial Group when the share price traded at £29.52. On the 21 February 2022 the share price of Provident Financial Group traded at £3.14 a share price depreciation of 90%.
Our Amanda certainly knows how to pick them - it's the old gals club.
AceOfClubs

"This is a capital transaction not a trade for profit. If it generates capital of 35m or more
Then the P&L effect is offset by the movement in reserves and the NAV will rise….."

We can agree it certainly isn't a trade for profit: "The sale will result in an IFRS net of tax loss of c£35m which includes the impact on the insurance liabilities resulting from the expected new asset mix."
The headline loss on the trade is actually £85M (£772M of value sold for £687M). The calculated IFRS net of tax loss of c£35m includes the impact on the insurance liabilities resulting from the expected new asset mix. Net Asset Value will not rise, it will diminish by an "expected" £35M.

Bone-headed regulation of insurance companies arising from the Gordon Brown era of financial incompetence does not help but I expect better of management. I bought into JUST seeing long-term value not short-term dividends, but that value is being sold cheaply to others - why?
A while back JUST advised it had never lost money on a single equity release contract. Now it sells a bundle of equity release contracts conservatively valued on an IFRS basis at £772M for £687M.
Meanwhile JUST is actively incurring heavy marketing, sales and administration costs to generate...... new equity release contract sales!
I for one will not be cheering when this management proclaims what a magnificent job they have done on our behalf and declares a 1p share dividend.
AceOfClubs

Unfortunately more bad news for JUST shareholders - a further £35M loss created by management actions. Are there less risk assets than those backed by UK residential property? The third dumb move in 15 months.
"The impact of the sale on the Group's Solvency II capital ratio will be broadly neutral". Doh!
See: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-unlock-billions-pounds-by-easing-insurance-capital-rules-2022-02-21/
AceOfClubs

Now this news below could give this share price a more sustainable increase than any unsustainable share buyback programme.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-unlock-billions-pounds-by-easing-insurance-capital-rules-2022-02-21/
AceOfClubs

2021 - EPS 50p, FCF per share 84p - 2022 EPS 40p, FCF per share 49p - 2023 EPS 47p, FCF per share 58p
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence - Average of 19 analysts
AceOfClubs

There is no fight youonly, just a difference of opinion, quite radical in this case. I will say that your comments are full of assertion and devoid of fact other than your business relationship with Burford. I have tried to give the facts upon which my opinion is based.
We can agree that Burford lost in court against Muddy Waters and you do not always get what you want from the legal process. As another commentator wrote at the time: "If it's flawed, appeal it. Put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise, suck it up and move on. But please, please don't play the wronged martyr. 'We've decided on complete capitulation, but the judge was still wrong' is a terrible, terrible look."
Happy days, AceOfClubs

Hello youonly,
My original post did not make any assertions, just quoted a few facts. There may be perfectly rational explanations for the miserable financial performance of Burford Capital in what has been a raging bull market until recently but the courts slowing up may be a blessing more than a curse for Burford.
Bogart has built the business on continually increasing levels of debt although he pulled a major stunt in Oct 2018 when getting a $250M equity placing away at £18.50 a share!
Bogart raises the cash and Mrs Bogart "values" the cases that creat the "profit" that supports the debt raising! Just look at the abysmal cash flow over the years.
The nominal Finance Director is a long-term associate of Bogart's whose previous role was at a business described by Bloomberg as a "PayDay lender for businesses, average APR 51%". Taken over in 2019 for $90m it was originally floated in NY for $230m in 2014 so Ken Brause certainly knows how to lose investors money.
Constantly relying on increasing levels of debt and equity raising, dismal cash flow, profit generated in the mind of the MD's wife, has an awful lot of the hallmarks of a Ponzi setup, now that is an assertion which may or may not be true, but there are so many better businesses out there why run the risk?
Oh by the way, those legal eagles at Burford dropped all their claims against Muddy Waters of "market manipulation".
AceOfClubs

Wishful thinking?
"We've all been saying over and over again this company is all about long term 20%+++ compounded growth"
Reality:
over the past 3 years, to the 31 January 2022 Burford Capital has produced a total return to shareholders of -25.37% (yes minus), 5 years 1.72% (yes positive).
Source: Morningstar.
Apologies if I have pricked anybody's bubble.
AceOfClubs

J.P. Morgan's Christyan Malek appeared on Bloomberg this morning ( 7 February) to discuss Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and the Company's ability to benefit from tight global gas markets.
Given the Company's LNG position -- the largest producer and trader, globally -- Shell is best positioned to benefit from sustained tightness in global gas markets.
Additionally, the Company is "looking to return as much cash as it can" to shareholders, with Management recently indicating they may need to negotiate off-market buybacks, given liquidity constraints.
Malek flags that Shell generates just as much EBITDA as Exxon (NYSE:XOM), but sports a 40% smaller market cap; another indication of the attractive value proposition, according to J.P. Morgan.
AceOfClubs

FYI.

(MT Newswires) -- US consumption of natural gas is forecast to fall 3% year over year to an average of 105.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, led by declines in the residential and commercial sectors, the US Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday.

Consumption in the residential and commercial sectors is projected to drop 10% year over year to 43.8 Bcf/d in February, while electric power sector use will be 1% lower at 27.8 Bcf/d, according to the EIA. This will be partly offset by industrial sector consumption, which is expected to grow 4% from February 2021 to 24.8 Bcf/d.

The EIA forecasts that natural gas prices will remain volatile over the coming months. The way temperatures affect gas demand in February and March will be a key driver of how inventories end the withdrawal season, which will be important for natural gas price formation in the coming months, the agency said.

Natural gas inventories are expected to fall by roughly 730 Bcf for the rest of the withdrawal season, ending March just below 1.6 trillion cubic feet, or 8% below the five-year average for that time of year, according to the EIA.
AceOfClubs

Is it because they hedged production at a fraction of current prices?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482938-natural-gas-markets-extreme-duress

AcoOfClubs

$12.9M of income and mining royalty taxes paid plus working capital movements. Net profits of $15.5M do not guarantee a single cent of cash.
AceOfClubs

MattTheBrave: It's irrelevant if the share price ends the day with an 8 at the front: in 2018 this was trading with a 9 at the front. I write as a long term holder (@650p average) who is re-evaluating a share I have usually held in higher than average regard.
For all the management puff in the interim statement the most telling fact for me was no increase in the interim dividend - indicates an uncertain management with no real confidence of future performance. Is this just a company that bobs up and down with the level of volatility and has no real control over its own performance?
The "High Potential Markets" appear to have the turnover of a busy corner shop, Spectrum, £3.8M, US OTC leveraged market £7.5M. Without the TastyTrade acquisition revenue YOY is falling when allowing for inflation and I am still trying to work out exactly what they have bought and why was it worth so much money.
June Felix never approached Tastytrade with this business adage in her head "If the Americans want to sell you something: it ain't worth buying."
Competition in this area is really hotting up: think FinecoBank and my favourite to get it right: Flatexdegiro.
IGG unexciting but safe and steady? Maybe not for much longer.
AceOfClubs

How do they get away with it?
Buried in the interim statement:
1.)"Excluding tastytrade the general bonus charge was down 13%, reflecting a smaller outperformance to internal targets compared to the prior period."
2.) "Share-based compensation costs relate to the long-term incentive plans for senior management and reflect the size of the awards and the extent to which they are expected to vest. These costs increased by 26% largely reflecting an increased number of participants."

Frontline foot soldiers in the trenches rations cut by 13%; staff officers back at headquarters rations increased by 26%.
AceOfClubs

To anybody interested have a read of the Aviva Remuneration Committee Report for 2020: 27 pages of management babel designed to be as inpenetrable as it is.
More meaty concerns are avaialable from the current forecasts available from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2020 2023
Operating Profit £3,166M £2,178M
Operating Margin 6.8% 4.11%
Net Income £2,754M £1,506M
Earnings PS 70p 45p
Divi per Share 21p 27p

Only forecasts and forecasts can change and are invariably wrong - but the general direction of travel leaves me not wanting to be holding here much longer.
AceOfClubs

ML111, an informed and balanced view of the opaque prospects for Aviva. You comment on the long history of poor management leading to poor results - is the current crew any better? I think It is far too early to say and the full year results will give plenty of scope to bury any skeletons.
I share your fears that the mature, competitive markets Amanda Blanc has chosen to focus on will prove difficult to grow profitably. Will she still be in post in 3 years time - history says it's doubtful.
The recent growth in the share price gives me encouragement to continue to hold but I have no real confidence and continue to look for an exit.
AceOfClubs

It is false to compare the special dividend from NEXT to anything likely to emerge from AVIVA. NEXT are paying their shareholders out of cash generated by a profitable business; AVIVA will be paying us out of proceeds of assets sold. We are not even being told if this "Special Dividend" will be paid out of retained earnings or as a return of capital and a consequential reduction in the share count.
This false uncertainty with the carrot being dangled before us donkeys is to be deprecated and effectively creating a false market. My money is on a return of capital and a share capital reduction; this board has no confidence in its own capacity to generate a growing return in future.
AceOfClubs

Jakeandelwood : A poor record with acquisitions and mergers may well be a valid reason to avoid any more. Aviva and LV both sell life insurance, pensions, investment products and a broad range of general insurance products, LV almost exclusively in the UK, a market Aviva have identified to focus on.
If the management could not successfully merge these two I give up.
AceOfClubs