Member Info for AceofClubs

"FY 22 hedge is 3.47 and 23 is 3.53!
FU 24 is 3.14."
US Energy Information Administration January 18 2023:-
"In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the natural gas spot price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, more than $1.50/MMBtu lower than the 2022 average. We expect prices to stay nearly the same in 2024 as dry natural gas production continues to grow in the United States and outpaces domestic natural gas demand and exports for most of the year. "
I am judging that the US Energy Information Administration knows a bit more about forecasting US natural gas prices than any of us, or DEC management it would seem.

If the DEC $3.53 2023 hedge price is correct and the US EIA forecast of $4.90 average is also correct then DEC will achieve 66% of the average with their hedging.
That not only puts a line under the SP but it also puts a line over the SP and I think the market could be telling us we are currently there.
AceofClubs

Rob Pitcher spends too much time writing his excuses and not enough time on the day to day detail of running a business.
Sort out:
1.) Rude Door Staff
2.) Inadequate staffing by the untrained and unmotivated
3.) A food offering that is too often awful
4.) Overpriced drinks
5.) Overall an experience that tempts too many to take their custom to better run businesses
AceofClubs

HSBC "Insight" - the full report can be downloaded.
https://www.privatebanking.hsbc.com/wih/investments-Insights/market-update/energy-market-volatility-outlook-and-implications/
Do remember that other opinions can be just as valid, your crystal ball is as clear as theirs and "events" have a habit of making fools of all of us.
AceofClubs

"or 137.50p average forecast - hard to choose between them?"
I guess JP shaded that one.
AceofClubs

ENTAIN is my largest holding in a UK listed business, largely organic growth from the GVC days; so far so good.
The future is, as always, uncertain. The 50% share in BetMGM is seen as the big growth driver but I am unclear about the relationship with MGMResorts, the other 50% "partner".
In September 2022 MGMResorts acquired the Stockholm listed LeoVegas:
"In outlining the rationale for the deal, MGM said the acquisition of Nasdaq Stockholm-listed LeoVegas will provide a “unique opportunity” for the group to create a scaled global online gaming business. It said the deal will offer strategic opportunities to accelerate growth and product offerings and a commitment to continued profitable growth."
MGMResorts may be a "partner" in the USA but they clearly have no compunction about being a competitor everywhere else.
My personal experience of dealing with executives of US businesses is that they are untrustworthy, 100% focused on self-interest and are your "partner" until the day it suits them not to be. I do hope ENTAIN management is up to the task of protecting the interests of ENTAIN shareholders; but I have my doubts.
AceofClubs

Anybody who bought at 65p back in February 2017 is enjoying a better diet than baked beans; but most current holders (myself included) have paid a lot more than 65p so for us it is still baked beans.
The fact is the World, the market and prospects for US Natural Gas have moved on since 2017. It's not that difficult for DEC to move with the times - but I'm not holding my breath and its baked beans for me at Christmas.
AceOfClubs

The share price reflects the market's view of the prospects for DEC and the ability of management to make returns for shareholders. Those abilities include maximising the price achieved for its products. In the quarter ended 30 Sept. DEC achieved an average gas price of $3.79 MBTU thanks to hedging policies. On the 31 Jul, 31 Aug & 30 Sept Henry Hub reported spot prices of $8.33, $8.93, $6.40. It is the failure of management to make hay whilst the sun shines that is holding back the share price.
Hedging should be a tool to inflate not deflate profits. If the cost of hedging is viewed as an insurance premium then that premium should be demonstrably proportionate.
AceOfClubs

Hi Bruce,
Sorry to read about your little difficulty so I shall keep it brief and simple.
California is the most populous and prosperous state in the USA and has just voted not to permit regulated on-line sports betting statewide. Entain has a 50/50 joint venture company with MGM Resorts called BetMGM which majors on regulated on-line sports betting in the USA. I presumed the relevance was obvious; but in your case clearly presumed too much.
Ace Of Clubs
P.S. Do not worry about Prohibition: it was abolished at the Federal level in 1933 and things have moved on since then.

Jim800: "But is a fugitive emission the same as a leak?"
A fugitive emission is the result of there being a leak - simply cause and effect.
I also assume that Brad Gray has worked out at the current rate of well plugging it will take DEC 60,000/200 = how many years to plug its wells in Appalachia alone.
He will also know how much a well currently producing at a rate of 100 will be producing in 10 and 20 years with an "industry leading" decline rate of 8.5%. The 40-50 year life-span for their wells is still regularly promoted; the fact that DEC is buying other producers "cigar butts" makes that claim rather implausible to start with.
I can only say to holders, (of which I am one) do not be dazzled by the 10% dividend rate to the exclusion of all the other numbers.
Company executives do not always tell exactly the same, or the whole story, as the company numbers do. Experience has taught me to test the story with the numbers - fraud excepted, the numbers never prevaricate.
AceOfClubs

https://calmatters.org/politics/election-2022/2022/11/california-sports-betting-what-next/
California says no.
AceOfClubs

The DEC PR machine has been in top gear since the Bloomberg article of which SlickMongoose highlighted one example: https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-federally-funded-gas-well-050100305.html
Actually reading the article gives us the following: Gray (Brad Gray, DEC COO) noted that Diversified has a proactive program to detect fugitive emissions from its conventional wells — producing or not. They surveyed more than 60,000 wells in their Appalachian footprint and found that 90 % or more had no fugitive emissions.
"We have always had a zero-tolerance policy for leaks, "he said. When they find a leak they immediately repair it. "That's always been our policy and our practice."
Brad Gray just informed us that DEC have 6,000 leaking wells in Appalachia alone. This does not compute with "always had a zero-tolerance policy for leaks" or "When they find a leak they immediately repair it. That's always been our policy and practice." If that is the case Brad, why the 6,000 leaking wells?

Oil & gas is a dirty business, necessary but dirty. If the exeutives in the business cannot be more honest about where we currently stand they are making the situation worse for everybody.
AceofClubs

"Re oil: Biden has drawn down massively on strategic reserve to try and keep prices low."
The Democrats have only one date in mind; November 8.
When Sleepy Joe is awake he couldn't tell you if it was Monday or Thursday.
AceofClubs

Jim800 - we clearly are looking through different ends of the telescope. The DEC numbers indicate that revenue could (and in my opinion should) have been 68% higher over the past 18 months. That would have fallen straight to the pre-tax profit line because DEC incurred the cost of producing, mainly for the benefit of others.
You hedge when you judge it as advantageous to do so. DEC seem to be tied nto a policy of hedging everything and judging nothing. I think NG still has a strong, sustainable tailwind in the US: so do the counter-parties to the DEC hedges.
The decent dividends cound be a lot more decent; the cost and quantity of borrowing a lot less. 7.5% interest, nailed on to 2031, is not cheap at all.
DEC posts good results; do not be blind to what they could, and should, have been.
AceofClubs

18 months to 30 June 2022
Revenue value of production ($000's) unhedged: $1,940,654
Revenue value of production ($000's) hedged: $1,153,267

Now are ‘you’ glad we have hedging in place! In a word no.
AceofClubs

The problems of Victoria PLC are far more fundamental than the price of gas in Italy & Spain for industrial processes. For those who think it just might be the straw that breaks the camel's back; don't forget that Putin is still pumping an awful lot of gas into Europe via various pipelines on a daily basis. If I were Vlad (i'm not, honest) I would be waiting for the first really cold spell for various technical problems to manifest themselves.
AceofClubs

TastyTrade is only worth what a buyer is prepared to pay for it today, and whether $'s of £'s; that's a lot less than "Generous June" paid for it with shareholders cash.
The share valuation reflects the market's disdain for management competence.
AceofClubs

I0 Downing Sreet
The Nightclub has closed.
Currently being run as a Circus with lots of clowns - but closing soon.
Re-opening as a Casino.
AceofClubs

The other side of the coin when measuring any discount sit the liabilities. What is inflation doing to AVIVA's liabilities? Inflating them by most thesis. 35% is by no measure ridiculous - Barclays Bank had a book value of £4.13 per share at the 31/12/2021. These companies have immense assets but the managements do not know how to make them productive.
AceofClubs

Overly simplistic avocet123.
AVIVA total return over past 5 years to shareholders 0 (zero)%. (Source Morningstar). Therefore taking inflation into account a negative return.
Makes you think doesn't it? We all asume too much at this game, I know I do!
AceofClubs

Reuters: Australia's Queensland state declared casino operator Star Entertainment Ltd unsuitable for a gambling licence on Thursday after an inquiry found it concealed illegal Chinese wagering payments and lured problem gamblers from interstate.
The ruling completes a regulatory sweep of Australia's casino sector. Since 2021, both Star and larger rival Crown Resorts, recently bought by Blackstone Inc, have been deemed unfit for a gambling licence in every state in which they operate, although neither company has so far been prohibited from operating in any jurisdiction.
It looks like the Australian authorities are wanting to appear tough on regulatory non-compliance. I do hope ENTAIN management is paying at least some attention.
AceofClubs