Member Info for Aberdeenman

In case anyone does not understand the implications....

Pfizer vaccine use application emergency being approved could mean the Vaccine being distributed from November/December.

This means there may be a very pressing need to ramp up antibody tests.

Aberdeenman

Pfizer could apply for emergency use authorisation for their vaccine as early as next month

On the news wires now.

They will need the antibody tests ASAP!

Aberdeenman

The recent drop was useful to get rid of traders and those just accepting lesser profits, it means that there is now a good base for the next big rise, hopefully, this is it started.

Aberdeenman

"All of these manufacturers ramping up production of their individual component will not be doing this at risk without a guaranteed demand for their output."

And with all the companies involved, it means it becomes increasingly difficult to keep a lid on things, hence the BBI leak & peeps finding things that haven't yet been announced.

All in all the pieces point to a massive order. There may even be some whispers causing some of the rise today.

News Monday anyone?

Aberdeenman

I think the main question (apart from when it is announced) is how big the Gov't order for the ABC-19 tests will be.

Given that capacity is being ramped up to 2-2.5 million tests per week across all tests that ODX produce, and ODX will produce 25%+ of the order, that means a pretty big order.

ABC-19 test is the gold standard and they don't seem to want to fast track any other test to compete.

We know there needs to be just short of 200m tests a year realistically and that tests will need to be produced to be used in conjunction with a vaccine.

So how big is the order?

Well it could be in the order of 200m tests (that would make the SP bag a few times) with 50m to be produced by ODX.

Once the initial large order is done they cannot take a chance on capacity being diverted for foreign orders, hence I think there will be a very large order imminently.

But will it be 50m? 100m? or 200m?

Whatever it is the SP is heading rapidy north when it lands.

Aberdeenman

"Computer, even if we accept MHRA approval will come with vacancies, pre production will require a solid contract and sales agreement."

They will already have them as per the £10m capacity payments.

We know from the BBI leak the initial order was in the bag weeks before the announcement.

Only thing holding back news re bigger orders is the Gov't.

Aberdeenman

Great article Derfel!

"Ministers hope the AbC-19 lateral flow test will be available for use in a mass screening programme before the end of the year."

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine who leads the British government's antibody testing programme."

"The UK government is planning to roll out millions of free coronavirus antibody tests which generate instant results following finger-prick after successful secret trials, according to a UK media report."

Anyone any doubts???

Aberdeenman

" I am inclined to think that MB has hit the nail on the head about government wanting to ensure capacity is ramped up and ready to go by the end of October so there's no perception of delay between now and DDay ie. the launch of a plan for mass testing."

We know from the BBI 'leak' that the initial Gov't order was in the bag weeks before the official announcement, and also that the Gov't made the announcement before the company did.

So the Gov't stockpiling before any announcement is made is pretty much certain, further evidence is the £10m for components related to producing more tests, i.e. capacity payments.

All in all, that means a mega order will be announced at some point soon, a lot of which will already have been produced.

Would not want to be out when that lands!!

Aberdeenman

Welcome Mark.

Some of us if not most have been around a long time, personally I invested pre IPO.

NFX has huge potential, and the IP should/will be in demand. IMO a couple of main issues why the SP is languishing...

There has been a bit of over-promising and under-delivering, and secondly, they are a bit of a tiddler still that has failed to strike a lucrative deal. That is not due to the IP and expertise they have, more the business acumen has been lacking.

BUT, it is a company, that when a deal comes will have a massive instant rerate, where it will be impossible to buy in on a rise, hence why we stick around.

It could easily open up 10 bagging on the right news, and then ten bag again from there over a short/medium time period.

Good luck with your research

Aberdeenman

CEO dumping shares....

I remember Xcite board dumped shares, the price halved overnight due to their sells, and they later bought back in cheaper.

That cost me a six figure sum.

A lot of crooks in AIM companies, but ODX are not in that category, they are an established brick and mortar company, actually producing stuff now, and have revenue.

They are in a market where demand is unlimited and once the Gov't gets their finger out this is going to rocket.

Chill and ignore the derampers, and remember a lot of the decent information has been uncovered by PI's before being announced, that will continue.

Aberdeenman

Apologies last post "Important points to draw from this""

Should have read "(<1% IFR, concentrated at end of life)"

Aberdeenman

"Important points to draw from this"

If you are a fit(ish) 80 year old, you may see things very differently, as will the relatives of the elderly. It would be political suicide for any political party, especially the tories with their high average member age, to throw in the towel and give up the elderly to the ravages of Covid.

Aberdeenman

"Important points to draw from this"

Another major point is who will they get to manufacture this geat (on paper) test?

It is alright developing something in an Academic lab, but to manufacture you need expertise and facilities, not to mention a skilled workforce.

So it could well be an opportunity for ODX, there are not that many companies that can manufacture, never mind manufacture at scale.

Aberdeenman

Every stock on the FTSE 100 is in the red at the moment.

Gainers are showing as those who have lost the least.

If the Gov't would only get their finger out we would not be in such a mess.

WHO said from the start Test. Test, Test.

So far they have failed, failed, failed.

Aberdeenman

Welcome to the Board Moodyboy, and thanks for sharing the test info.

Anyone reading but not contributing, always feel free to pipe up.

I know from running some shareholder events that there are around 10 reading the forums for everyone who posts, hence the derampers/paid manipulators making use of the website(s) to manipulate prices.

Aberdeenman

Makes sense re the boxes.

Vaccination will be done in conjunction with Antibody testing, and even if a vaccine never appeared then Antibody testing will be forever, and as most vaccines will need boosters likely Antibody testing will need done for years anyway.

The Gov't know this and will need to stockpile to get going ASAP.

Why would they purchase vaccines pre them being authorised and not stockpile antibody tests??

That is why I believe this to be one of the safest investments around, and to boot the returns will be multiples of current.

No brainer.

Aberdeenman

"Let’s keep the politicians off the board as much as possible. We can all see the current gov are in deep ****e and we can all imagine that if the election had gone the other way we would still be in deep ****e... However .. we do all see that testing is going to help us climb out of the ****e . Gla holders"

Have to agree, the current lot on both sides are pretty useless, KS is bright which may have been a saving grace, but current state of affairs is a reflection of the country in general.

**** up and brewery come to mind. They have had 8 months to get stuff sorted, (in fact years of pandemic planning) but still it is a mess.

Not impressed.

And yes, testing is key, WHO has said from the start, Test, Test, Test, and still the MHRA and politicians dither.

Aberdeenman

Many years ago I looked at bitcoin, and thought of just putting a couple of hundred quid in, it was about 20 cents at the time, but I thought it may just be a passing fad.

If only!

This is different though, established company, massive need, already selling to the Gov't as the gold standard, Antigen testing still to come onstream.

If the Gov't just got their finger out to get the mess sorted through mass testing the country would be in better shape, lives saved, and ODX SP multiples of the current.

It will come.

Aberdeenman

Never easy waiting, and those with no patience inevitably move on, not a bad thing as these are the ones most likely to sell for a slim profit.

Not that it is easy to watch profit diminish, but many of us have been here before, some many times.

Been lots of stories of those that sold out too early, ASOS anyone? NYCT??

It is a lesson to learn, but best done the hard way, so sell up if you are impatient, for the wiser ones who can see what will happen here, the rewards are much much more lucrative, and not too long to wait either.

In the meantime the derampers will do their thing, traders will trade, and all the while ODX, UKRTC and Colin are working behind the scenes to deliver, and deliver they will. If you want to blame anyone for the delays, it is the inept Gov't that have made mistakes at every turn, including fast-tracking MHRA approval and getting mass testing sorted.

GLA

Aberdeenman

If there wasn't a big market for novel IPF treatments, there is now, in fact it is going to be massive.

It will not have escaped national and multinational drug companies, who will have been scouring the patent lists, some may have come across the NFX patents and have been knocking at the door.......

Todays increase in trades/buys will have been based on circulating rumours.

Watch this space, I'd say, and if correct, the massive rerate we have been hoping/waiting for could be upon us.

Imagine you had just sold out, doesn't bare thinking about!

Aberdeenman