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All, please read the full thread. With minimal shares available to trade (less than 100 million) imo + Insider knowledge disclosed by Dougal that the city sharks want a slice + Manuka is back for another slice. Remember this lad has bought shares in public companies for over 40 years This would suggest that the number of slices remaining is decreasing
When a curve ball is launched, such as the 8:30 am RNS this morning revealing the £534,000 Operating Profit in just 3 months, you have to ask yourself, can the rest of the clique be trusted to stick to the plan?
A few decent snippets today, namely £534,000 Operating Profit for 3 months, but more importantly, inside knowledge from Dougal that the city sharks want a slice.
City sharks wanting a slice of little old OCT? Surely not lol
Have you got a girlfriend yet?
So what do we know? We know that in the quarter ending June 2015, operating profit was £534,000, with total transactions exceeding 30,000. In the previous year, the following transaction numbers were announced: Qtr Ending June 2014: 20,000 Qtr Ending Sept 2014: 15,000 Qtr Ending Dec 2014: 17,700 Qtr Ending Mar 2015: 23,000 As a proportion of total transactions (75700) for the previous year: Qtr Ending June 2014: 26.4% Qtr Ending Sept 2014: 19.8% Qtr Ending Dec 2014: 23.4% Qtr Ending Mar 2015: 30.4% For the 1st Quarter to June 30th 2015, there was a 50.3% increase in total settled transactions compared to the same quarter in 2014. Would it therefore be reasonable to suggest that if growth remained at 50.3 for the remainder of this year, that Operating Profits could be as follows?: Qtr Ending June 2014: £534,000 Qtr Ending Sept 2014: £400,500 Qtr Ending Dec 2014: £472,590 Qtr Ending Mar 2015: £614,100 Giving a year end Operating Profit of £2,021,190. Remember, this is just my opinion, all comments are welcome.
For the 1st Quarter to June 30th 2015, there was a 50.3% increase in total settled transactions compared to the same quarter in 2014. Turnover for Year End 31 March 2015 was £3,319,607. Based on the 1st Quarter transaction figures, would it be a fair estimate to say that turnover for Year End 31 March 2016 would be around £4,989,369? Cost of Sales for Year End 31 March 2015 was £1,311,923. Based on the projected turnover, I estimate the cost of sales for Year End 31 March 2016 to be £1,971,820, giving a Gross Profit of £3,017,549. Administrative Expenses were £1,534,697 for Year End 31 March 2015. Do we think that this will remain roughly the same? Lets say that it will increase to £1,800,000. Operating profit will be £1,217,549. I am assuming that there will be no write down of any investments. This is just my opinion, all comments welcome.
Manuka, new to these boards? You have been a member since July 2012 lol Next you will be telling us that you have been on these boards for more than 40 years lol
That is quite an accolade considering you have bought shares in public companies for over 40 years lol.
Tradecraft, I agree that your liquidity calcs are more realistic. For the 'Nominees' to have traded their holdings during the share price drop I would assume is unlikely however, as they have held firm, or increased since November 2014, but anything is possible I suppose as circumstances change. Chats, I'm just trying to get an idea about how many of the shares in issue are being held tightly and how many are available for trading.
Total shares in issue is now 560,226,886 Holdings known as of 1st July 2015 were as follows: Concert Party 345,336,133 61.64% Directors? 30,352,017 5.42% Placing (£1.7m) 85,000,000 15.17% Significant shareholders as of 30 June 2015, prior to rto were as follows: (1) Beaufort Nominees Limited 11,225,566 2.00% (2) Mrs Viktoria Maslennikova 8,000,000 1.43% (3) Vidacos Nominees Limited 7,151,515 1.28% (4) Redmayne (Nominees) Limited 6,918,182 1.23% (5) Forest Nominees Limited 6,820,041 1.22% (6) Principal Nominees Limited 5,502,007 0.98% (7) W B Nominees Limited 5,300,758 0.95% (8) Barclayshare Nominees Limited 4,701,801 0.84% (9) Fitel Nominees Limited 3,939,455 0.70% (10) SVS (Nominees) Limited 3,388,909 0.60% Would it be a fair assumption to say that all of the above are not being traded? Please bear in mind that of the significant shareholders, numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10, increased their holding between 14th Nov 2014 and 30 June 2015. The holdings of 3 and 5 were unchanged in the same time period. If so, this means that 93.47% of the total shares in issue are not being traded, leaving 36,590,502 shares. It is possible that some of the directors took a chunk of the placing of £1.7m, which means the number of traded shares could be more like 66,942,519. This is just my opinion, all thoughts are welcome.
If you want to know the type of person that Kabaa is, read this thread, otherwise ignore...
Haha, now the other one pipes up, what a surprise. It is interesting that you are impressed with the latest transaction figures, because for many months, you have been complaining that these numbers mean nothing.
Oh, he never left :-)
Your investment decisions are baffling, especially as you are a financial advisor. Do you advise the same way that you act? You invested in OCT because DL was involved and a Russian lady was investing, nothing to do with the business. You invested in HUME, decision based again on 'blind faith'. You seem very passionate now about all of the failings regarding OCT/GIS/HUME, yet your investment in these is tiny in comparison to your £90k investment in US Oil & Gas in days gone by. Or was it £60k :-) To claim that something has a lot of potential, then 3 days later say the opposite is interesting. I'm just highlighting the fact that you are full of it, but I'm sure that makes you happy.
Hello Bampster, can I ask what swayed you to invest in HUME?
According to the Acquisition rns, following the Capital Reorganisation, the concert party owned 61.64% of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company. From the Octagonal website, http://www.octagonalplc.com/aim-rule-26#, the percentage of shares not in public hands is 67.06%.
Thanks for the comments. I'm looking forward to the March 2015 end year results so that we know the exact profit for GIS, plus the qtr results ending June so that we can build a more accurate growth projection. Does anyone know how much it initially costs to float a private company on aim? Specky, may I suggest that you research pe and peg ratios first, it shouldn't take long. I'm sure the origins of the numbers will then be clearer.
Sure, the profit was calculated using transactions data, as the sizes of the transactions is irrelevant according to the rns's. For the 6 months ending Sept 2014, there were 35000 transactions, profits of £260,000 were declared. For the 6 months ending March 2015, there were 40700 transactions, so i've calculated profit for the year as ((£260,000/35000)*40700)+£260,000, which equals £562,343. I know that settlements doesn't account for all revenues for GIS, but this is the only info that we have at this time to make any kind of analysis. The PE ratio is therefore 0.02/((£562,343)/560,226,886) which equals 20. The PEG ratio is (£562,343-£419,000)/£419,000 which equals 34% growth, now 20/34 gives 0.59. I'm therefore saying that a PE ratio of 34 or below, will give a PEG ratio of 1 or below, which would provide excellent value. To get a sp of 0.34, (((£562,343)/560,226,886)*34)+(£2,000,000/560,226,886))/11. Have I made any glaring errors or do you think this is reasonable?
I've estimated profits for GIS, year end 31st March 2015 as £562,000, based on the £260,000 profit for the 6 months ending Sept 2014 and the transaction numbers for October through to March from the Rns's. The rto deal was done at a sp of 0.1818p old money, 2p new money with a PE ratio of 20 and a PEG ratio of 0.59 imo. Using these figures, the sp below 0.34p in old money and 3.74p in new money, would provide excellent value. All imo of course. Any thoughts / corrections anyone?