Member Info for 99icecream

Woolverston - IMHO bid/ask prices are changed after (in reaction to) the large buys. The small trade reflects the new prices - it does not move the prices.

Align assumed at 12% interest rate on the loads (in the May 2021 valuation). However, the NPV is not sensitive to this assumption.

IMHO - these valuations mean little unless you agree with how they adjust for risk.

In July 2022 SP Angel came up with a "Risked Valuation" of 5p because they assumed that Kore might need to double their shares to get the funding.

In May 2021 Align had an 11p "Risked Valuation" because they assumed funding was provided without significant dilution.

Then we have the "Risked Valuation" basically you value the project then you say (for example) this has a 50% chance of occurring, so our Risked Valuation is 50% of the Projects Unrisked Valuation. In the case of the Align valuation it means it becomes 22p if it happens (and 10p for SP Angel if it happens after the issue of many more shares).

Lastly we have the NPV discount rate which is another way of adjusting for risk. Kore used NPV(12) in May 2021. NPV(10) would be 40% higher (15.5p Risked / 31p Unrisked).

Contrast the following. Emmerson (EML) use NPV(8) in their Potash project in Morocco. Horizonte (HZM) also used NPV(8) for their Nickel project in Brazil.

So even NPV(10) is conservative when you consider that Kore will have the parent guarantees in place c.f. HZM where costs have been revised dramatically up on two occasions.

Kore listed at A$ 0.20 per share (= £ 0.11 at the time).

6 Years exactly !

"HiTec selling NEO is very different from NEO pulling out of Buchan"

That's my point. Is the interest in selling Neo tax driven?

HitecVision are looking at NEO's future. Is this just a tax arbitrage ?

At some point Neo will be producing vast amounts of cash and will be paying lots of tax on it (which ever government is in charge). However, if they reinvest in Green projects (e.g. wind farms) the tax rate is lower. So won't the obvious buyer or partner be a firm investing in green projects ?

I suspect the approval will be subject to conditions (limits) on water use, not conditions on process.

I suspect that the Ministerial group has the power to direct the local committee to issue or to reject, but it is expedient to let the committee consider the new proposal.

FWIW - There seems to be two parts to this decision. 1. Was it a good thing for the local committee to refer the decision? 2. Should it be accepted or rejected?

1. Was clearly a good thing as its forced Emmerson to significantly enhance its proposal. It now uses mainly Grey water, it minimises water use and it results in more value added in Morocco. So the referral is "upheld".

2. In the light of 1. its now asking the local committee to look again (at the new application) with a view to acceptance.

Nuclear, then Gas, I guess as the ultimate backup.

I can see this might be an issue in some places. In the UK as we increase the number of wind turbines the problem becomes what to do with the electricity that is surplus to the needs of consumers (i.e when its windy). You can store in a battery. But it would also be an ideal time to produce your green hydrogen.

Possibly the more relevant date is the 5 weeks since the "New KMP Processing Route" was announced.

So "Titanite" has not been exploited before, but has been shown "in the lab" to be a valuable feedstock. This will add an extra item to the list of things need to be in place before money can be raised to mine and process the ore. Empire metals will need to prove Titanite can be used successfully at industrial scale.

I don't think that's quite correct. It's fair to say that the research is based a great deal on Emmerson data, but its only paid for in the sense that Liberum need to show they can market shares in any fund raise - selling them to Liberum clients. We can't get the research unless we are Liberum clients (or pay Research Tree).

Its obvious that Emmerson were not exactly open with shareholders with regard to the water issue. But their use of Grey (Waste) Water and their new KMP process looks like a late winner (worthy of Nunez) with respect to the ESIA.

OTP are (apparently) already digging next door, so I guess they have no worries ESIA wise.

Sorry ..... lower (risked) target of 17.8p.

Very little "research" is independent. It really marketing material for share issues etc. So you always have to read it and form your own view. Sirius was and still is a massive gamble because of the vast Capex costs and the unknown value of the end product. Don't think of Sirius product as Potash as it contains only a small amount of Potash (circa 15% from memory). Only one company sells Polyhalite in small quantities - so its not at all obvious what the price might be when there is massive amounts available.

My own view is that the valuation of Emmerson (by Liberium) is very easy (relative to Sirius) - short time to production, low Capex etc. etc.. They also use NPV(10) rather than NPV(8) (used by Emmerson on 1 Feb) this gives a much lower valuation of 30p / share and a lower (risked) target of 18.9p.

I think they earned their wages this month with the "New Processing Route".

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EML/scoping-study-on-breakthrough-new-processing-route-k6wv2789hdm2uzy.html

Rio also have a stake in Sovereign Metals ( AIM/ASX Listed )

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/rio-takes-a-stake-on-sovereign-metals-2023-07-17

GCM - Is a very sad story - it got as high as £9, almost twenty years ago. IMHO they will continue to languish, as they don't offer the locals a way out of the mess they are in with energy costs, as the domestic gas (which was by comparison almost free) supply runs out.

https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/asia-energy-fires-up-on-caz-outperform-note/a264263