RE: Dividend Yield Sustainability3 Nov 2021 21:46
From Berenberg -
While the German bank acknowledged that 2022-23 will see strong free cash flow generation thanks to still-elevated iron ore prices, when iron ore demand normalises and supply increases, prices will drop, resulting in an inflection by 2024 when capex broadly matches or exceeds cash generated from operations.
"To us, this means that either Rio needs to: i) generate more cash from operations through M&A or lower-cost assets; ii) cut capex; or iii) reduce the dividend," said Berenberg, which stood by its 'hold' rating on the stock.
"Rio still has some time to play with and we think the dividend is comfortably covered over the next two years. However, as time passes, we forecast a rising risk that the company needs to diversify to maintain a strong financial position and its dividend."