Q3 Numbers26 Oct 2023 11:33
Whilst my copy and paste comment a few days ago referring to the latest Q3 numbers was delivered 'tongue-in-cheek' I wasn't expecting it to be taken literally but then again its what we've come to expect from Gittins & Co. for the last 9 months or so.
As I commented in July, the numbers are being played down once again although to be fair to the Foxtons' management and in point 7 of the interim statement it does state the following.....
.......' Consensus expectations for Foxtons Group plc, being the average of forecasts for the year ending 31 December 2023 provided by analysts covering the Group, is revenue of £141.5m and adjusted operating profit of £11.8m'.
It should be noted that there are only 3 analysts supposedly covering the stock and they've all just tinkered with last years full set of numbers, again a complete waste of our time. These are not management delivered numbers !
What should be noted however and again no mention of this in the statement but Q3 turnover figure was the best performance by the company since its inauguration to the market back in 2013 when the following year its Q3 turnover figure was £112.7m and in 2015 Q3 reported £114.5m (9 months) !!
Similarly with lettings recording its best ever 9 months at £81.3m and even financial services coming in at £6.6m for the year to date beats the figure of £5.9m reported for Q3 back in 2015.
Market always concentrates on sales but we are now in a 5% interest rate environment and not a 0-1% interest arena, how many home owners can afford a 0-1% mortgage on a £500,000 property when earning £40,000 a year ??? Yes, quite a lot !!
Now how many of them will have to re-mortgage when their current deal expires in a year or two and now have to finance a £500,000 mortgage at 5-6% ??? How many of them can afford a £20,000- £30,000 increase in their mortgage costs ?? Er, not many !!
And this will be the norm for quite some time yet.
Going forward, whilst the US Hedge funds and Banks are still looking to pick up stock, maybe another Friday tree-shake tomorrow perhaps, Foxtons can now look forward to the Chancellor's Autumn Statement in a few weeks time.
Its election year next year, so expect the Chancellor to pull out all the stops, especially for first time buyers, the removal of Stamp Duty, Help-to-Buy incentives, Build-to-rent homes, help with legal fees (just add it on to the principal) and who knows maybe a cut in Corporation Tax Duties.
Yes, the Q3 statement was extremely dull to put it mildly (by design ?) but keep buying on those MM manipulated dips and tree-shakes !!!
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