Member Info for 5085

What are we looking at as a fair and reasonable MC for a helium explorer looking to become a modest producer? For me £5m seems a fair level until finances are sorted, death spiral funding over, Colorado on stream, a lot more holes drilled in Tanzania and the missing JV’s come to the table.

Of course, the £5m MC needs to take into account a few billion more shares that will be added at a staggering discount level.

Don’t get burnt playing here.

What is the bull case here now, apart from what goes down quickly, should go up?

Colorado – 50% capex, opex - expected revenue, minus tax

Tanzania – moving forward to pilot scheme – 5 production wells, small plant capable of extracting helium out of solution, means of getting to market.

The bulls left here make a lot of noise but hardly ever go near spelling out a strong investment case, so would-be investors are happy to wade in.

AI Summary

• Subsurface/operational: True GWR and He% could be lower (or decline with time); produced-water handling without reinjection may reduce pressure sooner than modelled, forcing CAPEX for reinjection. Execution risk on multi-well ESP operations is real.

• Commercial: Funding for the EPS/plant, offtake agreements, and logistics (export chain) must be nailed down; helium pricing can be cyclical. Recent announcements included a ~£10m raise, helpful but unlikely to cover full development.

• Regulatory: Although the ML is awarded and the 17% state free-carry is agreed via Songwe Helium Ltd, final regulatory framework agreements and any remaining environmental/water-management permits are dependencies.

Technically, the pilot is well-conceived for this aquifer-hosted helium play: prove flow with ESPs, de-risk GWR/He% and water management, then scale. Commercially, success now turns on Q4-2025 well re-entry data, locking in offtake + export logistics, and full EPS funding. If those fall into place, moving from “pilot” to modest cash-flow is plausible; if the subsurface or logistics underwhelm, timelines and scope will slip.

Colorado in $9m out $1m pa

Tanzania in $120m out $2m pa

The market is waking up, as as traders and investors imoh

The amount of shares owned by Lorna is not fully known with an unknown number of options, but one thing is absolutely certain it is close to the number of shares going through the market today, just over 350,000,000 shares (2 x large delayed trades). imho

When investing it is wise to analyse available information as released or made known and move with it.

The issues Helium One has are considerable.

US – Capex/Opex rate offset against flow metrics are such that profitability in meaningful numbers $5m + pa is not achievable. It begs the question, why did they go in so strongly. Desperate punt maybe.

Tanzania could literally be anything with 1 well successfully drilled and 3 dusters.

I guess the idea was to make a lot of quick money in the US and then to move it into Tanzania. Not only did this not work they were left with no alternative than to go down the dreaded CLN route.

At the moment it appears to be a game of rinse shareholders for all they can and then see where they are.

Tanzania is not dead, but it will need someone with a lot more money than Helium One to give it a good go, throwing in the seasonal, infrastructural issues – bridges being washed away in storms, no roads etc. This whole story is not the one Lorna and David before her portrayed. Imho.

Approx cost for a pilot scheme in Tanzania is between £50m - £90m – This includes drilling 5 production wells and a processing plant capable of extracting helium from water/brine. A larger scale plant like the one in Saskatchewan Canada will be a lot more expansive.

Taking the medium of £70m for a pilot scheme it is clear to see without massive funding the project will never get off the ground and with a lot more holes to be drilled what is the chance each one will flow? The exact reason why those with deep pockets have not committed. #risk

The SP has not dropped becuase of anything said here, the same as it didnt shoot up with all the rockets being posted. It is dropping due to death spiral financing taken out by the company, and there's still £7.25m to go.

The only question here is, will we hit the 0.00's before it ends?

With sustained buying and the price dropping looks like the next note is in at 0.036

I did say only yesterday we were looking at 0.38 to 0.42. The dust will settle now, they will wait a few weeks and the next tranche imho, will be 0.28 to 0.32.

Eventually when enough fingers have been burnt the words ‘death spiral funding’ will be very much understood.

Imagine the widespread panic when the next million is taken at .038 - 0.42 and the realisation that there are 8 more tranches to go. What a state to get into.

August 22, 2025 at 10:05 AM EDT

part of the article

• British solid oxide tech firm recognised in landmark hydrogen partnership report marking 50 years of China–EU diplomacy

• Ceres’ selection underscores accelerating demand for clean energy in China and signals deepening alignment on hydrogen innovation between Brussels and Beijing

British fuel cell technology specialist Ceres has been highlighted as a model of EU–China energy collaboration in a newly released report titled EU-China Cooperation in Hydrogen – A New Frontier, published to coincide with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the European Union and China.

The report — jointly curated by the EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform (ECECP) and the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, and backed by China’s National Energy Administration — showcases select hydrogen and e-fuel projects bridging the two regions. Ceres was selected for its innovations in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology, as well as its ongoing engagements with Chinese industrial partners to develop stationary clean power applications.

“This recognition comes at a significant milestone — 50 years of diplomatic relations between the EU and China and highlights the growing importance of hydrogen technologies in the global energy transition,” said the company. “Ceres’ inclusion reflects not only our commitment to innovation but also the increasing demand for clean energy solutions in China and our ability to enable this.”

The report positions EU–China hydrogen cooperation as a central driver of global decarbonisation, with the potential to significantly accelerate development and deployment of clean energy systems. With electrolysis and fuel cell innovation now viewed as critical pieces of the energy transition, both blocs are doubling down on coordinated R&D, tech sharing, and infrastructure alignment.

“Stationary power, based on solid oxide fuel cells, is clearly emerging as a key pillar in future energy systems, and we’re proud to be part of this momentum,” Ceres added.

For those about to get locked in, get comfortable, you will be here a while.

If £1 million blocks of shares are issued in 9 instalments, god imagine where the SP will then be, into the 0.0 something territory for sure.

Who would have thought it.

I have done a lot of in-depth calculations on the Galactica-Pegasus project based on 6 wells producing the helium grades as reported, not including any revenue generated from CO2.

Helium price MCF $300 = after tax annual profit = $0.46m

Helium price MCF $390 = after tax annual profit = $0.69m

Helium price MCF $600 = after tax annual profit = $1.23m

Capex initial phase – 50% = $4.2m

Future development costs – (tiebacks, processing) – not yet presented

Wyndrum,

I believe you are spot on regarding Rukwa, helium in solution, indicates massive extraction issues and only a handful of holes drilled (one semi decent), funding required off the scale. If all goes well should be great in 10 to 15 years time.

What happened here was predictable.

Toffers, aka, aka, aka, aka would initially enter the room and keep a low profile, but that would not last, the troll tendencies in her are just too powerful.

Yes, we just need to know how the helium will be extracted from water because that is the elephant in the room

If the prospects here are world class as we are made to believe, with such a scarce commodity, wouldn't there be an abundance of JV partners knocking, instead of the same old death spiral Aim funding?

If the North Field in Qatar is looked at as a benchmark, these were the timeframes involved, going from discovery into first production.

Total Time from Discovery to Production

• From early 1990s (discovery) to 2005 (production):

→ Approximately 12–15 years

• From project initiation and construction (~2003) to production (2005):

→ Roughly 2 years for plant construction and commissioning.

Bang your money in, accept the obvious dilution that has to come and in 10+ years LTH’s should benefit greatly.

Massive debt and equity dilution coming and thereafter it gets interesting